Daily Observation of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: The Divergence Between Bitcoin and US Stocks is Widening, Is Galaxy Digital's "AI + Crypto Dual-Track" Model Crossing Cycles?

Divergence Structure: Why Bitcoin Underperformed the Stock Market During the "Most Favorable Regulatory" Period

CoinDesk analysis on May 26 pointed out that the Bitcoin price chart is forming a potential "lower high" structure, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures continue to rise. The underlying logic of this divergence is not due to a deterioration in the fundamentals of the crypto industry, but rather a specific path during a macro liquidity-dominated period: first, U.S. Treasury yields remain high (the 10-year yield previously touched 5.01%), suppressing the relative attractiveness of zero-yield assets; second, over the past two weeks, there has been a net outflow of more than $2.26 billion from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, with institutional funds systematically flowing back from crypto assets to stocks and commodities. Notably, this divergence occurred at a time when the CLARITY Act was just passed by the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15---9, significantly enhancing regulatory certainty—indicating that the positive impact of regulation on Bitcoin prices has a clear lag effect under macro liquidity pressure.

Galaxy Digital's Buffer Mechanism: Quarterly Rhythm of CoreWeave Revenue

Galaxy Digital completed its first data hall delivery to CoreWeave (NASDAQ: $CRWV) in April, with Phase 1 totaling 133 megawatts of IT critical load, all to be delivered by the end of Q2; CoreWeave's lease term is 15 years, covering approximately 526 megawatts of IT critical load in Phases 1 and 2 combined, with management predicting an annual consolidated revenue exceeding $1 billion and an EBITDA margin of about 90% on the leasing side; preliminary Q2 data shows adjusted EBITDA of about $90 million, a significant improvement compared to Q1's -$188 million. This data indicates that Galaxy is undergoing a genuine business model transition: the EBITDA loss in Q1 was primarily driven by non-cash impairments of digital assets, while the $90 million positive EBITDA in Q2 comes from actual data center contract revenue— the difference of about $279 million is one of the clearest cases of "AI revenue compensating for crypto asset volatility" data to date.

ERCOT's 1.6 Gigawatts of Unrecognized Value: Waiting for Institutional Contracts

Galaxy has been approved by ERCOT for a total authorized capacity of over 1.6 gigawatts at the Helios site, with Phase 2 adding approximately 830 megawatts actively seeking leases from hyperscale customers, aiming to complete contracts in the second half of 2026; hyperscale computing buyers are locking in power capacity for 2028, with high visibility of demand. This 830 megawatts of uncontracted capacity is currently Galaxy's largest source of unrecognized valuation. If we refer to the contract prices of Phase 1 CoreWeave (15 years, 90% EBITDA margin), the annual contract revenue potential for 830 megawatts is estimated to be in the range of $600 million to $800 million (based on IT load density estimates from Phase 1, this is an analytical judgment, not an official company forecast). When BTC repeatedly tests the $74,000---$80,000 range and market sentiment is hesitant, this unrecognized asset is a core differentiated valuation source for $GLXY compared to pure mining companies.

PCE Data and the CLARITY Act are the Two Most Important Variables This Week

The core variables this week (May 27---30) are: first, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the April PCE data, will be released on Thursday (May 28)—if PCE is below expectations, the anticipation of interest rate cuts will advance, providing macro tailwinds for Bitcoin and crypto concept stocks, and the "lower high" structure of BTC is expected to be broken; second, the latest progress in the full Senate's 60-vote game for the CLARITY Act—currently, two Democratic committee members, Gallego and Alsobrooks, have voted in favor, but crossing the 60-vote threshold still requires an additional 5---7 Democratic senators' support, with confirmation of the timeline expected by the end of this month. For Galaxy Digital, the intersectional impact of these two variables is the clearest: a favorable PCE will directly repair BTC prices (boosting the $GLXY digital asset sector), while the passage of the CLARITY Act will provide compliance endorsement for its on-chain business (boosting the valuation of the AI+DeFi mixed narrative)—either one alone would become a catalyst for the revaluation of $GLXY relative to other crypto concept stocks.

Data source: https://bbx.com/ Crypto concept stock information database, based on yesterday's announcements from global listed companies and SEC/TSE disclosure documents.