Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Trump advances the signing of the US-Iran agreement; US stocks led by semiconductors; SpaceX goes public today

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

No new actions from the Federal Reserve, market focuses on the impact of geopolitical developments on monetary policy

• The Federal Reserve has not released any major policy statements recently, but the market continues to monitor inflation and employment data.
• Trump announced the cancellation of military actions against Iran and stated that a U.S.-Iran agreement is expected to be signed this weekend, possibly in Europe.
• Analysis: Easing geopolitical risks may reduce safe-haven demand, benefiting risk assets in the short term, but if the details of the agreement fall short of expectations, fluctuations in the dollar and oil prices may increase uncertainty in Federal Reserve decisions.

International Commodities

CME plans to launch around-the-clock trading for oil and gold, geopolitical easing affects oil prices

• CME plans to offer 24/7 trading for smaller-sized oil and gold contracts, with the oil contract size being one-tenth of the existing micro WTI, and the gold 1-ounce contract set to launch in July.
• Spot gold briefly recovered to high levels, boosted by progress in the agreement.
• Analysis: Around-the-clock trading enhances liquidity, allowing traders to manage geopolitical risks in real-time; easing uncertainties related to the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily suppress oil prices, but long-term supply and demand still need attention.

Market Dynamics

Strong demand for advanced processes, TSMC considers price increases

• TSMC's 3nm capacity has increased but remains insufficient to meet demand, with potential price increases of up to 15% for the most sought-after processes in the second half of the year.
• Google's TPU is reportedly introducing Samsung for the first time to alleviate TSMC's capacity pressure.
• Analysis: AI-driven chip demand remains strong, driving supply chain adjustments, benefiting related equipment and materials sectors, but also highlighting potential constraints on industry growth due to capacity bottlenecks.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Update)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4200/ounce, -0.23%.
• Spot Silver: Approximately $67/ounce, -0.06%.
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $86/barrel, -1.43%.
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $89/barrel, -1.45%.
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.7 points, -0.1%.

Driving Factors Analysis: Significant progress in the U.S.-Iran agreement has alleviated geopolitical tensions, with Trump confirming approval from all parties and canceling military actions, directly stabilizing safe-haven assets like gold in the short term while suppressing oil prices (both WTI and Brent have retreated). The dollar index has weakened slightly, reflecting a rebound in risk appetite. Institutions believe that despite short-term easing of supply and demand, long-term geopolitical uncertainties and global demand still support commodities; CME's around-the-clock trading initiative will further enhance market resilience. Overall, inter-asset correlations indicate that risk assets are gaining, while precious metals remain attractive at high levels.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $63,670, +2.88%.
• ETH: Approximately $1,670, +2.74%.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.26 trillion, +2.5%.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h is $270 million, with short liquidations at $197 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price has broken through the dense short area above $63,000, with a significant short liquidation zone around $64,000-$64,500. If it continues to rise, it may trigger a new round of short covering (Short Squeeze). The large long liquidation zone between $61,500-$62,500 has mostly cleared, and the short-term chip structure is healthier than before, with the market focusing on whether it can stabilize above $64,000 and further challenge the $65,000 mark.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $214 million yesterday.

Driving Factors Analysis: Easing geopolitical risks combined with a rebound in U.S. tech stocks provide macro support for the crypto market, with BTC and ETH rising in tandem. ETF fund flows show slight fluctuations, and overall leverage liquidations are manageable, with technicals oscillating in key ranges. The SpaceX IPO and strong semiconductor performance indirectly boost market sentiment, with institutional consensus suggesting that improvements in the macro environment and institutional fund interest will support mid-term trends, but caution is needed regarding the impact of the final implementation of geopolitical agreements on risk appetite.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at approximately 50,848.75 points (up 1.86%), continuing its rebound.
• S&P 500: Closed at approximately 7,394.30 points (up 1.75%), nearing high levels.
• Nasdaq: Closed at approximately 25,809.66 points (up 2.54%), significantly driven by technology and semiconductors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $204.87 (+2.22%).
• AAPL: $295.63 (+1.39%).
• MSFT: $390.34 (-1.77%).
• GOOGL: $357.77 (+0.39%).
• AMZN: $241.51 (+1.47%).
• META: $568.43 (-0.45%).
• TSLA: $399.15 (+4.60%).

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The tech sector rebounded overall, with the semiconductor index soaring, and storage and aviation services concepts also performing strongly. Individual stocks showed significant divergence: chip stocks like Intel and Micron surged due to capacity constraints and rising AI demand, while Oracle faced pressure due to capital expenditures exceeding expectations. The approaching SpaceX IPO boosted space concepts, and Google's introduction of Samsung for manufacturing reflects a strategy of supply chain diversification. Easing geopolitical tensions drove funds from defensive to growth, but valuation pressures and company-specific events led to differentiated performances, with AI themes remaining the main line in the short term.

Cryptocurrency Market Stock Derivative Trading Data

• 24H Total Transaction Volume: $26 billion (-13.65%)
• Total Open Interest (OI): $7.23 billion (-4.29%)
• 24H Total Liquidation: $29.34 million
• Transaction Volume Proportion: 14.18%
• Open Interest Proportion: 6.91%
• Liquidation Proportion: 10.87%

Market Interpretation: The trading volume and open interest in the stock derivatives market have both declined, indicating a cooling of short-term risk appetite, but the scale of liquidations remains relatively limited, with the overall trend being active reduction in positions rather than panic exits.

Sector Position Performance

• Technology Sector: $1.23 billion (absolute leader)
• Financial Sector: $157 million
• Consumer Sector: $67.03 million
• Industrial Sector: $19.45 million
• Biotechnology Sector: $17.16 million

Market Interpretation: The technology sector continues to dominate, with funds concentrated in AI, semiconductors, and large tech stocks; the financial sector remains in the second tier, reflecting ongoing market attention to interest rates and macro policy expectations.

Heat Map Fund Flow (by Position)

Commodities

• Gold (GOLD): $3.12 billion (largest holding)
• Silver (SILVER): $686 million
• WTI Crude Oil: $567 million
• Brent Crude Oil (BRENT): $340 million

Tech Stocks

• Nvidia (NVDA): $242 million
• SanDisk (SNDK): $185 million
• Marvell Technology (MRVL): $154 million
• Google (GOOGL): $106 million
• Circle (CRCL): $101 million
• Tesla (TSLA): $87.73 million
• Intel (INTC): Active holdings

Market Interpretation: Safe-haven funds continue to concentrate on gold and silver, with gold holdings exceeding $3.1 billion, far surpassing other assets; in tech stocks, Nvidia, SanDisk, and Marvell, among others, continue to receive attention, with funds betting on the growth of AI infrastructure and computing power demand.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor Sector rises over 7%

• Representative stocks: Micron Technology rises nearly 12%, Intel rises over 9%.
• Driving Factors: Tight supply and demand for advanced processes and strong AI demand.

Storage Concept shows strong upward momentum

• Representative stocks: SanDisk rises over 14%.
• Driving Factors: Expectations for NAND-related technology iterations.

Space Concept significantly rises

• Representative stocks: Virgin Galactic rises nearly 22%.
• Driving Factors: The approaching SpaceX IPO boosts sector sentiment.

III. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. TSMC (TSM) - Price Increase Expectations for Advanced Processes Event Overview: TSMC's monthly capacity for 3nm has increased to 175,000 wafers, but it still struggles to fully meet the explosive growth in AI chip demand. Supply chain news indicates that the company may raise prices by up to 15% for the most sought-after advanced processes in the second half of the year to cope with upstream cost pressures. Google's TPU is reportedly introducing Samsung for the first time to manufacture some components using 2nm processes, marking a deepening of the supply chain diversification strategy aimed at reducing reliance on TSMC, while Google's core computing engine is still handled by TSMC's 1.4nm process. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally recognize TSMC's pricing power and technological barriers in the advanced process field, but also remind investors to pay attention to the pace of capacity expansion, increasing global competition, and potential impacts of geopolitical factors on the supply chain. Investment Insight: Short-term capacity bottlenecks are expected to support valuation premiums, while long-term tracking of the AI capital expenditure cycle and diversified supplier layouts is necessary to assess sustainable growth potential.

2. Intel (INTC) - Bank of America Upgrades Rating Event Overview: Intel's stock price surged over 9%, with Bank of America upgrading its rating from "Underperform" to "Buy," with a target price of $135. Analysts emphasized the strong prospects for the company's server chip business, while the potential of its external foundry business is underestimated, expecting earnings per share to exceed $6 by 2030, a significant increase from previous estimates. This upgrade reflects a recovery in market confidence regarding Intel's long-term competitiveness in AI infrastructure and chip manufacturing. Market Interpretation: Multiple institutions believe this move marks the beginning of Intel's valuation recovery cycle, but execution risks and industry cycle fluctuations still need to be monitored. Investment Insight: Currently offers a good entry opportunity for valuation recovery; investors should focus on the company's execution capabilities in technology implementation and signals of semiconductor cycle turning points.

3. Oracle (ORCL) - Capital Expenditure Raises Concerns Event Overview: Oracle's stock price continued to drop over 8%, with quarterly capital expenditures exceeding market expectations, intensifying investor concerns about the sustainability of profitability in its AI infrastructure business. The company's current debt stands at approximately $117 billion, making it the largest bond issuer outside the financial industry. High investments support cloud and AI layouts, but short-term profitability pressures are significant. Market Interpretation: Analysts focus on capital return rates and debt management, believing that the path to profitability realization is a key observation point, with some institutions maintaining a neutral but cautious view. Investment Insight: In the short term, attention should be paid to cost control and cash flow performance, while the long-term AI cloud business layout still holds strategic potential, suitable for investors with moderate risk appetite.

4. SpaceX Related Dynamics - IPO Approaches Event Overview: SpaceX plans to sell $75 billion worth of stock through an IPO, attracting over $70 billion in retail subscription orders and securing at least $5 billion in large subscriptions from BlackRock. The IPO is entering its final stages, with retail investors expected to receive at least 20% of the share allocation. Ark Investment analyst Brett Winton expects the company's orbital data center business to contribute $300 billion in annual revenue by the end of this decade, combined with Starlink and rocket technology, forming a multi-engine growth narrative. Market Interpretation: Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the space economy, believing that SpaceX, as an industry leader, will provide important indicators for the sector through its IPO pricing and subsequent performance. Investment Insight: Focus on the final pricing of the IPO and liquidity after listing; related space concept stocks may continue to benefit from catalysts, but valuation bubble risks need to be assessed.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Asset management company Fidelity Investments has chosen Uniswap as the liquidity infrastructure for its stablecoin FIDD, with the FIDD liquidity pool now live on the Uniswap protocol.

2. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform that BlackRock has submitted an 8-A filing for its Bitcoin premium yield ETF BITA. This step typically indicates a formal launch within a week, and he expects the product to begin trading next Thursday.

3. Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn posted on X platform that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed to abolish Rule 611 of Reg NMS (Order Protection Rule) and Rule 610(e) (Locking/Crossing Market Restrictions). Alex Thorn stated that Rule 611 is one of the biggest obstacles to trading tokenized stocks in DeFi. Automated market makers cannot comply with this rule, and any liquidity pool for tokenized stocks would continuously violate regulations, essentially constituting an illegal trading center. After abolishing Rule 611, it will be replaced by the "best execution" principle, which applies at the broker level and is based on a rules-based framework rather than a trade-by-trade review, thus compatible with automated market makers.

4. JPMorgan analyst team leader Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that the retreat of fiat currency depreciation hedging trades has been ongoing, with the pace of Bitcoin's retreat recently accelerating. Gold ETFs saw outflows of about $20 billion in the week ending June 5, while Bitcoin ETFs have gradually increased outflows over the past four weeks.

The depreciation hedging trade refers to investors purchasing Bitcoin and gold in response to geopolitical uncertainties, inflation, rising government debt, and the need for dollar diversification. JPMorgan noted that this trade continues to fade in ETFs, futures markets, and investor positions. The correlation between Bitcoin and the real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has recently turned negative, while the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 is closer to the positive correlation between Bitcoin and stocks, indicating that both have recently behaved more like risk assets. Analysts reiterated that a strengthening in the second half of the year requires clear dividend plans from treasury companies and the passage of the Clarity Act, which currently has a probability of less than 50%. However, the current market weakness may ultimately become a "bullish reverse signal."

5. Jack Mallers, founder of Strike and CEO of Twenty One Capital, stated that Bitcoin's current price reflects the true state of the global liquidity crisis. He pointed out that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is at a historical low, while the S&P 500 is at a historical high, indicating that central bank interventions have distorted the value of the stock market as a signal. Mallers said, "Bitcoin is the closest thing we have to the truth of money."

Mallers believes that countries are simultaneously financing for war, AI development, and deficit spending, while individuals are falling behind on credit card and rent payments, putting the world in a cash-raising mode, selling the most liquid assets. "You sell what you can sell, not what you want to sell." Regarding Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, Mallers stated that this was to make the market accept the reality that its "never sell" stance is no longer feasible. He questioned whether Strategy's perpetual priority tool creates permanent liquidity obligations, requiring choices among different stakeholders each time liquidity is needed.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Important Event Forecast

June 12 (Friday)

1. SpaceX officially lists on Nasdaq (code SPCX): A historic IPO event, first trading day, boosting market sentiment. ★★★★★
2. U.S. Economic Data: Preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June, preliminary value of the one-year inflation rate expectation for June.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment banks and analysts hold a cautiously optimistic view of the current market. Easing geopolitical risks (such as progress in the U.S.-Iran agreement) boost risk assets, with U.S. stocks, especially the semiconductor sector, showing strong rebounds reflecting resilience in AI demand, but the drop in oil prices highlights alleviated supply concerns. Investment banks like Bank of America are optimistic about the long-term potential of stocks like Intel, while the overall short-term judgment on gold and oil leans towards volatility. The crypto market benefits from macro improvements, with ETF funds showing fluctuations but a positive mid-term trend. Institutional consensus emphasizes attention to the details of agreement implementation, inflation data, and Federal Reserve signals, suggesting that investors seek structural opportunities amid volatility and avoid excessive leverage.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.