Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran suspend mutual strikes, oil prices fall sharply; Key week for US tech stocks, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, SK Hynix, and others will release earnings reports (July 27, 2026)

# I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Oil price drop eases rate hike pressure, market focuses on subsequent policy path

• After the pause in the Middle East conflict, crude oil prices fell sharply, cooling the previously heightened expectations for interest rate hikes due to soaring oil prices.
• The market continues to assess the inflation path and the Federal Reserve's next actions. Market Impact: The drop in energy prices helps alleviate short-term inflation concerns, providing support for interest rate-sensitive assets and increasing risk appetite.

International Commodities

US-Iran pause in mutual strikes leads to significant drop in oil prices

• The US and Iran have paused mutual military strikes for several days, signaling a de-escalation and boosting expectations for ceasefire negotiations.
• Brent and WTI crude oil prices have significantly decreased, easing the previous geopolitical risk premium. Market Impact: The rapid decline of the geopolitical risk premium directly reduces inflation concerns, benefiting risk assets and suppressing safe-haven demand.

# II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,109/ounce, +1.36%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $60.0/ounce, +2.45%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $85.4/barrel, -4.42%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $82.68/barrel, -4.33%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.7, -0.3%

Driving Factors Analysis: The pause in US-Iran mutual strikes significantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium, with the drop in crude oil prices becoming the dominant factor. Gold and silver showed divergent performance amid falling oil prices and rising risk appetite, with silver's industrial properties providing support. The dollar remained relatively stable. Institutions believe that short-term commodities are dominated by geopolitical easing, and the drop in energy prices helps alleviate inflation and interest rate hike expectations, creating a positive chain reaction of falling oil prices → cooling inflation concerns → support for risk assets.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $65,195, +1.11%
• ETH: Approximately $1,974, +3.65%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.31 trillion, +1.7%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h approximately $213 million, with short positions liquidated at $160 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price approximately $65,139, with downward long liquidation pressure mostly released, while a large number of short liquidation orders are clustered around $65,700--66,000. If the price continues to rise, it may trigger short covering, amplifying upward momentum. The $63,800--64,200 range was previously a major long liquidation area, which has been significantly cleaned out; the short-term market leverage focus has shifted upward, paying attention to the chain reaction of short liquidations in the $65,800--67,100 range and the sustainability after a breakout.

Driving Factors Analysis: The easing of the Middle East conflict and the drop in oil prices boosted risk appetite, leading to a recovery in the crypto market. BTC held its key range and slightly rose, while ETH showed relatively better elasticity. The improvement in the macro environment and liquidity jointly support the short-term trend, with institutional consensus pointing to a volatile recovery. However, ETF fund flow volatility and leverage liquidation indicate that the market remains cautious, needing to be alert to geopolitical fluctuations affecting sentiment.

US Stock Index Performance

As of last Friday's close:

• Dow Jones: Closed at approximately 51,947 points, up 0.46%
• S&P 500: Closed at approximately 7,412 points, up 0.05%
• Nasdaq: Closed at approximately 24,976 points, down 0.64%, with the tech sector still under pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $206.84, down 0.92%
• AAPL: $333.02, up 3.53%
• MSFT: $381.70, up 0.03%
• GOOGL: $319.74, up 0.65%
• AMZN: $232.11, down 0.66%
• META: $595.19, down 1.80%
• TSLA: $313.03, down 2.08%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The performance of the seven giants showed significant divergence. Apple surged against the trend by 3.53%, becoming a major support force; Microsoft and Google slightly rose. Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla recorded declines, with Tesla experiencing a relatively large drop. Previous concerns about AI capital expenditures continue to suppress high-valuation growth stocks, but the easing of geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices provide some support. The divergence among individual stocks reflects a market shift from purely thematic trading to a re-evaluation of company fundamentals and capital expenditure efficiency.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor/Storage Sector Experiences Significant Correction (Leading Decline)

• Representative Stocks: Micron Technology (MU) down 6.99%, Intel (INTC) down 7.89%, Western Digital (WDC) down approximately 6.9%, Marvell (MRVL) down approximately 7.3%.
• Driving Factors: After a significant profit-taking following the previous AI demand expectations, combined with market concerns about the pace of capital expenditure returns, the storage and semiconductor sub-sectors amplified their elasticity, becoming one of the largest declining sectors of the day.

Optical Communication/Related Technology Declines Significantly

• Representative Stocks: Coherent (COHR) down approximately 9.8%, Lumentum (LITE) down approximately 8.5%.
• Driving Factors: The heat of AI optical modules and connectivity themes has cooled, with funds withdrawing from high-elasticity sub-sectors.

Software and Some Growth Stocks Relatively Resilient or Up

• Representative Stocks: ServiceNow (NOW) up approximately 7.4%, with some software and service targets performing well.
• Driving Factors: Amid concerns over high investment in AI hardware, funds have partially flowed into software and cloud service-related targets, showing divergence.

Energy Sector Performs Steadily

• Representative Stocks: ExxonMobil (XOM) up 0.03%, Chevron (CVX) up 0.19%.
• Driving Factors: By Friday's close, oil prices had not fully reflected the weekend's easing of conflict, keeping the sector relatively stable; however, after the significant drop in crude oil over the weekend, it may face pressure on Monday.

# III. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Intel (INTC) - Q2 Earnings Exceed Expectations, AI Drives CPU Revival

Event Overview: Intel's Q2 revenue reached $16.13 billion, a 25% year-on-year increase (the strongest growth in 15 years), with adjusted EPS of $0.42 (far exceeding the estimate of $0.21). Revenue from data centers and AI business was $6.26 billion, up 59% year-on-year; client computing grew by 13%, and foundry business grew by 31%. Operating profit margin improved significantly from a negative value in the same period last year to about 17%, with operating cash flow increasing by over 240% year-on-year. The company guided Q3 revenue of $15.8-16.8 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.38, both above market expectations. The CEO emphasized that AI is driving unprecedented computing demand, with capital expenditures in 2027 expected to be significantly higher than in 2026. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally recognize this as a real turning point signal, with AI demand significantly reviving its server CPU business and bringing strong operating leverage. Some analysts (such as those from Seeking Alpha) point out that the foundry business is still severely loss-making and highly dependent on internal demand, with limited progress on external customers. The current valuation has already factored in the foundry breakeven and sustained high growth assumptions, thus giving a "hold" rating. Wall Street is also focused on the progress of the 18A process, potential external major clients (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon), and the impact of the significant increase in capital expenditures on free cash flow. Investment Insight: The performance and guidance validate the demand pull from AI for CPUs, improving the mid-term logic, but close monitoring of external orders in the foundry and the pace of capital expenditure returns is needed to avoid valuation overextension risks.

2. Tesla (TSLA) - Record Deliveries but Significant Profit Decline

Event Overview: Tesla's Q2 revenue reached a record $28.24 billion (up 26% year-on-year), with deliveries of 480,100 units hitting a new high. However, adjusted EPS was only $0.33 (far below the estimate of about $0.53), with operating profit down 57% year-on-year to $398 million, and operating profit margin plummeting from 4.1% last year to 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative at approximately $1.09 billion, with capital expenditures increasing by 142% year-on-year to $5.79 billion, mainly for AI, Robotaxi, and Optimus. Revenue from regulatory credits dropped significantly by 67%. Energy storage deployment reached 13.5 GWh. Musk continued to emphasize progress on Robotaxi and Optimus during the earnings call, but the market remains highly skeptical about the timeline. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that strong deliveries do not mask the core issues of profit and cash flow deterioration, with high AI and robotics investments significantly pressuring short-term profitability. Analysts point out that the valuation already implies extremely high growth expectations, and if the commercialization progress of Robotaxi and Optimus falls short of expectations, the downside risk is considerable. Some viewpoints emphasize that the energy business is a bright spot, but overall, the conversion of returns after the peak of capital expenditures still needs observation. Investment Insight: Short-term volatility remains high, with a focus on subsequent actual operating mileage of Robotaxi, growth in FSD subscriptions, and adjustments to full-year capital expenditure guidance to verify whether the AI narrative can translate into sustainable profits.

3. Google (GOOGL) - The Game of Cloud Business Explosion and Capital Expenditure Increase

Event Overview: Alphabet's Q2 revenue was approximately $119.8 billion (up about 24% year-on-year), with Google Cloud revenue at $24.8 billion, up 82% year-on-year, and operating profit significantly improved, with cloud backlog rising to $514 billion. However, the company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $195-205 billion (previously $180-190 billion), with quarterly capital expenditures of approximately $44.9 billion, turning free cash flow negative at about $5.9 billion. Management emphasized that demand still exceeds supply and will continue to expand self-built and leased capacity. Market Interpretation: Institutions recognize the strong demand for cloud services and AI infrastructure, but are concerned that the continued significant increase in capital expenditures will extend the return cycle and suppress short-term cash flow. Analysts are closely monitoring the resilience of search advertising, the sales pace of TPUs, and whether capital expenditures will continue to rise in 2027. Market sentiment has shifted from "growth confirmation" to "investment efficiency verification." Investment Insight: Long-term advantages in the cloud and AI ecosystem are clear, but short-term tracking of the matching degree between capital expenditures and revenue conversion is needed, paying attention to the speed at which backlog converts to actual revenue.

4. AMD - Collaborating with Cerebras to Advance AI Inference Differentiation

Event Overview: AMD announced a partnership with Cerebras Systems to combine the Helios rack-scale system with Cerebras wafer-scale chips, launching a joint solution for ultra-low latency inference, expected to be released later this year through Cerebras Cloud. AMD chips focus on prompt processing and large context windows, while Cerebras emphasizes high-bandwidth token generation, claiming to achieve higher performance per watt. Previously, AMD announced supplying up to 2 gigawatts of computing power to Anthropic and investing up to $5 billion. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this reflects the trend of "disaggregation" in AI workloads, helping AMD differentiate itself in the inference market against Nvidia. Analysts are focused on the timeline for the partnership's implementation, actual performance comparisons, and whether it can translate into sustained orders. A multi-vendor landscape is favorable for AMD in the medium to long term. Investment Insight: As an important target for diversified AI computing power allocation, attention should be paid to product commercialization progress and customer expansion.

5. Nvidia (NVDA) - $1.5 Billion Prepayment Supports Advanced Packaging in the US

Event Overview: Nvidia has reached a multi-year strategic cooperation with Amkor Technology, providing a $1.5 billion prepayment to support Amkor's expansion of advanced semiconductor packaging and testing capacity in the US (especially Arizona), jointly developing packaging technologies for next-generation AI and accelerated computing platforms. The cooperation covers high-density interconnects and heterogeneous integration. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this strengthens Nvidia's supply chain control in the advanced packaging segment and its domestic capacity layout in the US, aligning with the ongoing expansion of AI infrastructure and geopolitical supply chain security needs. Analysts are focused on the timeline for capacity implementation (Amkor's project is expected to start mass production in 2028) and its impact on overall AI hardware costs and delivery pace. Investment Insight: Long-term benefits for the supply chain resilience of AI computing power leaders, with attention to the release of packaging capacity and its potential support for gross margins.

# IV. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Iranian military spokesman Mohammad Akraminia stated to official media that due to the US not striking the country in the past two nights, retaliatory attacks have been halted, and Iran's actions are currently paused.

Madhavi Arora from Emkay Global stated that the rebound in Brent crude oil is no longer driven solely by known risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the latest blockade in the Red Sea. Currently, visible shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to nearly zero, global inventories have been depleted, and new supply disruptions are exacerbating tensions. Additionally, after months of drone attacks in Ukraine, Russian fuel exports remain constrained; Kazakhstan has begun to cut production after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's export terminal was shut down. The supply side is facing multiple tightening pressures.

2. According to information displayed on the GitHub Trending page by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, Block's open-source collaboration platform Buzz, the decentralized Bluetooth chat application BitChat from permissionlesstech, and citrolabs' AI browser ego-lite have entered the top three of the global trending repositories today.

3. Data: Tokens such as SUI, EIGEN, and FF will see significant unlocks this week, with SUI unlocking valued at nearly $10 million.

4. According to Fortune, the Trump administration in the US has invested approximately $26.7 billion in equity or equity-like instruments across at least four agencies, including the Department of Commerce, Department of Defense, Department of Energy, and the US International Development Finance Corporation, including a passive stake of about 9.9% in Intel held through the Department of Commerce, with its market value rising from about $8.9 billion to about $42 billion.

5. Nvidia (NVDA.O) is negotiating to provide approximately $250 billion in financial guarantees to OpenAI to support a massive data center project—one of the largest financial transactions in the US AI boom.

6. South Korea's largest trading company POSCO International is collaborating with LG Group's technology company LG CNS to tokenize actual commercial invoices using the Injective network.

# V. Today's Market Calendar

Macroeconomic Data Outlook

According to PAnews, global investors' inflation fears are reignited by a triple impact of soaring energy prices, new tariffs imposed by the US, and a surge in AI capital expenditures. This week, the Nasdaq led the decline in US stocks, with tech stocks facing dual pressures from macro and fundamentals throughout the week. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 5% on Friday, with memory chips being the hardest hit. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week, with many believing it may bring hawkish surprises. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in UTC+8):

• Tuesday 20:15: US ADP employment change for the week ending July 11;
• Thursday 02:00: Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision announcement;
• Thursday 02:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's monetary policy press conference;
• Thursday 17:00: Eurozone Q2 GDP year-on-year preliminary value, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Eurozone July industrial sentiment index, Eurozone July economic sentiment index;
• Thursday 19:00: Bank of England interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report;
• Thursday 19:30: Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference;
• Thursday 20:30: US initial jobless claims, US June core PCE price index year-on-year/month-on-month, US June personal spending month-on-month, US Q2 annualized GDP preliminary value/real personal consumption expenditures quarterly preliminary value/core PCE price index annualized quarterly preliminary value;
• Friday 17:00: Eurozone July CPI year-on-year/month-on-month preliminary value;
• Friday 21:45: US July Chicago PMI;
• Friday 22:00: US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final value, US July one-year inflation expectation final value.

This week, tech stock earnings reports are densely scheduled, with Apple (AAPL.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Qualcomm (QCOM.O), SK Hynix, and others set to release earnings reports sequentially.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe that the pause in US-Iran mutual strikes significantly reduces the geopolitical risk premium, and the sharp drop in oil prices helps alleviate inflation and interest rate hike expectations, boosting risk asset sentiment in the short term. The divergence in US stocks' closing on Friday shows that the tech sector remains under pressure from previous AI spending concerns, but the improvement in the macro environment provides a recovery space. The crypto market follows the rise in risk appetite. Overall strategy suggests focusing on the inflation path after the drop in energy prices and the progress of geopolitical negotiations, maintaining flexible allocation.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.