us-iran

According to informed sources, the final proposal for the US-Iran ceasefire agreement includes Iran abandoning nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of assets. A plan to end hostilities in the Middle East needs to be agreed upon by Monday. If an agreement is reached, the plan will facilitate an immediate ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the achievement of a final agreement within 15 to 20 days. The Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan has had phone calls with US Vice President Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif. Iran and the US have received a plan to end hostilities, which consists of a two-tier agreement: first achieving a ceasefire, and then reaching a final agreement.

According to Jin Shi reports, Middle East issue scholar Mohammad Ali Shabani stated in an interview that he believes U.S. President Trump is ready to fulfill his threat to strike Iran's critical infrastructure, which poses a serious risk of escalating the regional situation. Iran, on the other hand, has conveyed its signal of "not backing down" to the U.S. by launching attacks on Kuwaiti infrastructure. He added, "The current situation is somewhat similar to a standoff, with neither side able to exit gracefully. In this context, I believe the possibility of a serious escalation in the region within the next 24 hours is very high."

Famous hedge fund manager Bill Ackman posted on social media:"Some of the world's highest quality companies are currently trading at extremely low prices. Ignore the mainstream media's voice. This is one of the most lopsided wars in history, and the outcome will be beneficial for the United States and the world. Moreover, we are likely to usher in a substantial peace dividend. This is one of the best times to buy quality assets in a long time. Ignore those bears."

According to Jinshi Data, the Pakistani Foreign Minister stated that indirect dialogue between the U.S. and Iran is being conducted through Pakistan to convey messages.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, the expectations for a ceasefire in the US-Iran negotiations have fluctuated, while both WTI and Brent crude oil prices surged during the day. Against this backdrop, the top two addresses on the Brent crude oil chain, "Abraxas Capital," significantly increased their positions. In the past hour, both addresses simultaneously added to their short positions, with a total increase of $16 million, at an average purchase price of approximately $99.6.Following this round of increased positions, the total size of the two short positions has risen to $66.4 million, with an average price of about $103 and a liquidation price average of $140. Due to the short-term rise in oil prices, the floating profit has narrowed from $3 million to $2.2 million.

Citi's Chief Investment Officer, Kate Moore, believes that investors seem overly optimistic, thinking that the U.S.-Iran issue is about to be resolved. She stated on Wednesday, "Some of the price fluctuations we've experienced, especially in the last two days, actually indicate that people have a great deal of optimism about the problem being resolved, and they also believe that this energy shock will not trigger widespread inflationary effects. To be honest, that worries me a bit."She added, "Regarding how to construct a portfolio, I hope to proceed with extremely cautious consideration. Because what we want to build right now is a portfolio that has risk resilience, and we must also ensure that we can withstand inflation risks and the possibility of conflicts lasting longer than current market optimists expect."

According to Jinshi Data, the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war remain bleak, but analysts believe that there is still a channel for reaching an agreement.Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, as mediators, are pushing for US and Iranian officials to meet as soon as this week. US President Trump and his political allies have expressed a positive attitude towards negotiations. It is reported that the US and Israel have temporarily removed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf from the assassination list for 4 to 5 days to create conditions for the negotiations to start.The demands of both sides after the war have significantly exceeded their pre-war positions. Iran demands that the US compensate for war damages, close military bases in the Middle East, and charge shipping companies passing through the Strait of Hormuz; the US demands that Iran stop uranium enrichment, restore freedom of navigation in the Strait, and limit its missile program and support for regional militias.Analysts believe that if both sides determine that the cost of war is unbearable, they may first reach a ceasefire agreement and postpone core issues such as uranium stock disposal, verification mechanisms, and sanctions relief to subsequent negotiations. Michael Singh from the Washington Institute stated that a path for a minimum ceasefire agreement to proceed alongside a complete agenda is still feasible.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones rising 1.6%, the S&P 500 index up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. Technology stocks generally rose, with Nvidia up 2%; oil stocks led the decline, with Occidental Petroleum down 3.8%.

According to Cointelegraph, data shows that for the week ending March 9, Polymarket and Kalshi set all-time highs in nominal trading volume, reaching $2.49 billion and $2.85 billion, respectively. Dune data indicates that the continued growth in trading activity has driven the total nominal trading volume of all prediction markets to $14.5 billion, with the number of unique users reaching 2.8 million.Meanwhile, U.S. Democratic Senator Adam Schiff has introduced the "DEATH BETS Act," which aims to amend the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to explicitly prohibit federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, and personal death. Previously, six Polymarket traders faced insider trading allegations after profiting $1 million from accurately betting on a U.S. attack on Iran.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated, "Since the start of the US-Iran war on February 28, Bitcoin (+7%) has outperformed gold (-2%) and the Nasdaq 100 index (-0.5%). Compared to similar large high-risk assets, Bitcoin has performed the best against the backdrop of soaring oil and gas energy prices."

Macro strategist Mark Connors stated that if the conflict between the United States and Iran continues for months, the increase in fiscal spending, debt expansion, and declining interest rates brought about by the war could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin.Connors pointed out that wars typically require financing through the issuance of more government bonds, which will increase the supply of dollars in the financial system, thereby weakening the value of existing currencies and benefiting non-dollar assets like Bitcoin. Since mid-2025, the annualized growth rate of U.S. federal debt has been about 14%, and if this trend continues, the debt size may continue to grow by about 15% year-on-year. He believes that this ongoing debt expansion is essentially a form of "monetary dilution," which has historically been beneficial for Bitcoin's performance. Since the U.S. first launched strikes against Iran, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 3.6%. As U.S. government debt increases and relies more on short-term bond financing, policymakers may be more inclined to lower interest rates in the future to reduce interest burdens. In an environment of "declining interest rates + ongoing debt expansion," liquidity typically improves, which is precisely the macro backdrop in which Bitcoin has historically performed strongly.

According to Cointelegraph, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that the rise in Brent crude oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict could push up the 10-year US Treasury yield, thereby driving the MOVE index higher and triggering a round of relief measures implemented through money printing.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet suspected to be linked to the US-Iran conflict, after being silent for three days, invested $3,000 predicting that the Iranian regime will collapse before March 31.This wallet was created on February 28 and had previously made only two prediction trades, both of which were successful, with a profit of $16,000.