Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Tech giants' earnings reports are impressive but accelerating cash burn creates market divergence; the US and Iran exchange harsh words, pushing up oil prices and interest rate expectations; gold and silver strengthen (July 23, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

US-Iran tensions push up oil prices, September rate hike probability approaches 80%

• US President Trump threatened that if Iran fires on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will bomb and destroy Iranian bridges or power plants; the Iranian military responded that it will firmly exercise sovereignty and will never allow the strait to become a tool of threat.
• International crude oil futures settled significantly higher, reaching a one-month high; the CME's "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates at least once before the September meeting is close to 80%.
• Market impact: Rising oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns, strengthen hawkish expectations, temporarily suppress risk asset valuations, while supporting demand for the dollar and gold as safe havens.

International Commodities

Oil surges due to geopolitical risks, precious metals strengthen simultaneously

• Stimulated by the harsh words exchanged between the US and Iran, both WTI and Brent crude oil surged significantly.
• Spot gold and silver benefited from safe-haven sentiment and a slight retreat of the dollar, both rising.
• Market impact: Rising energy costs may transmit downstream, exacerbating uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's policy path, and commodity market volatility may remain high.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump warns of potential government shutdown in September; Bank of Japan open to accelerating rate hikes

• In a speech in Georgia, Trump stated that due to differences in spending priorities between the two parties, the federal government may face a shutdown in September; the House has passed a short-term funding bill until December 4, while the Senate is still negotiating.
• Insiders say that the continued weakening of the yen increases inflation risks, and Bank of Japan officials are open to "raising rates faster than the market generally expects," but it is highly likely that rates will remain unchanged at the July 31 meeting.
• Market impact: Increased uncertainty in US fiscal policy and flexibility in Japanese policy may increase fluctuations in global capital flows, providing short-term benefits to the dollar's safe-haven attributes.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: $4130.99/ounce, -0.02%
• Spot Silver: $59.72/ounce, +0.08%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $87.9/barrel, +1.21%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $95.55/barrel, +1.57%
• Dollar Index (DXY): 101.09, -0.03%

Driver analysis: The US-Iran tensions directly pushed up oil prices, and traders are concerned that rising energy prices will drive up consumer goods inflation, thereby strengthening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Gold and silver benefited simultaneously from geopolitical safe-haven demand, combined with a slight retreat of the dollar index, resulting in a correlated rise. In the short term, if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, oil prices are expected to remain high, further suppressing risk appetite; if tensions ease, the upward momentum in commodities may quickly reverse. Institutions generally believe that the current commodity market is highly sensitive to geopolitical premiums and that close attention should be paid to subsequent statements from the US and Iran.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $66,199, -0.66%
• ETH: Approximately $1,937, -0.03%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.33 trillion, -0.5%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24 hours approximately $183 million, long positions liquidated $106 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price approximately $66,153, a large number of short liquidation orders are concentrated in the $66,700--$67,500 range above; if it breaks through $66,500, it may trigger continuous short liquidations, forming a short-term accelerated upward trend. Long liquidations are mainly concentrated in the $65,300--$64,500 area below, but the liquidation pressure is weaker than above, so the current liquidation structure overall still leans towards first sweeping up short liquidity.
• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of approximately $203 million yesterday, with a current 24-hour dynamic net inflow of $30 million, marking seven consecutive days of net inflow.

Driver analysis: On a macro level, the US-Iran tensions and rising rate hike expectations are suppressing risk assets, leading to a pullback in BTC. The inflow of ETF funds has significantly slowed, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment among institutions. The scale of leveraged liquidations is controllable, and no large-scale stampede has occurred. Technically, BTC is still oscillating around $66,000, with clear divergence between bulls and bears. The progress of the Clarity Act legislation (prohibiting the president and federal officials from issuing digital assets) has sparked discussions in the market about the pace of regulatory implementation, which may increase volatility in the short term. The overall trend is still dominated by macro factors and capital flow, with ETH showing slightly stronger resilience than BTC.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: 52,218.58 points (-0.01%), nearly flat, showing defensive attributes
• S&P 500: 7,498.96 points (-0.14%), slightly lower, dragged down by heavyweight stocks
• Nasdaq: 25,690.90 points (-0.57%), tech stocks generally under pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $212.06 (+2.30%)
• AAPL: $325.89 (-0.56%)
• MSFT: $390.34 (-1.86%)
• GOOGL: $342.09 (-1.46%)
• AMZN: $244.85 (-1.09%)
• META: $627.17 (-2.58%)
• TSLA: $374.01 (-1.30%)

Performance summary and driver analysis: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose against the trend by 0.44%, led by Nvidia and Broadcom, reflecting strong demand for AI infrastructure. However, the software and application sectors showed significant weakness, with Palantir down over 6% and Salesforce down over 4%. Although Alphabet and Tesla's post-market earnings reports showed impressive revenues, concerns about the accelerated capital expenditures and negative cash flow raised market worries about the speed of "burning cash," leading to increased stock differentiation. Overall, the sector exhibited characteristics of "hardware AI benefiting, software and some consumer electronics under pressure," with valuation and cash flow becoming the core of investor repricing.

Sector Movement Observation

Application Software Sector fell by over 3%

• Representative stocks: Palantir down 6.1%, Salesforce down 4.15%
• Driver factors: The market's tolerance for high-valuation growth stocks has decreased in the context of rising rate hike expectations, compounded by some companies' guidance falling short of expectations.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.44%

• Representative stocks: Nvidia up 2.3%, Broadcom up 2.67%
• Driver factors: Continued demand for AI computing power and data center construction, with giants like OpenAI raising spending expectations providing support.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Alphabet - Cloud business exceeds expectations but cash flow turns negative Event Overview: Q2 revenue and earnings both exceeded expectations, with Google Cloud achieving the strongest growth in recent quarters and backlog orders reaching $514 billion. The company raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $195-$205 billion to accelerate AI computing power expansion. For the first time in history, negative free cash flow was reported, leading to a post-market stock price drop of over 3%. Market Interpretation: Institutions recognize the progress of the cloud business and AI implementation but express caution regarding the significant increase in capital expenditures and worsening cash flow, fearing an extended return cycle. Investment Insight: The AI investment race is heating up, and cash flow quality will be key to pricing in the next stage.
2. Tesla - Revenue exceeds expectations but profits fade, cash flow turns negative Event Overview: Q2 revenue was $28.236 billion, a 26% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations; automotive revenue was $20.516 billion. Profits faded due to declining average selling prices and promotions, with capital expenditures falling short of targets and cash flow turning negative. The company emphasized that it is in the largest investment phase. Market Interpretation: Strong deliveries are affirmed, but pressures on profit margins and cash flow lead investors to reassess the pace of investment in robotics and autonomous driving. Investment Insight: The balance between sales and profits remains a core contradiction, and attention should be paid to the path of subsequent gross margin improvement.
3. Texas Instruments - Revenue and guidance both exceed expectations Event Overview: Q2 revenue was $5.46 billion, exceeding expectations; Q3 guidance of $5.65-$6.15 billion also surpassed market expectations. Industrial, data center, and automotive businesses led the growth, with total shareholder returns of approximately $5.8 billion for the year. Market Interpretation: The recovery in demand for analog chips is confirmed by institutions, with data centers and automotive becoming new growth engines. Investment Insight: The coexistence of cyclical recovery and structural demand provides a relatively safe margin for valuation.
4. ServiceNow - Strong subscription growth, explosive deployment of AI agents Event Overview: Q2 revenue was $3.987 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase; subscription revenue grew by 24.5%. Remaining performance obligations reached $29 billion, with AI agent deployments growing ninefold in nine months. Market Interpretation: Demand for enterprise software and cybersecurity remains robust, and the effectiveness of AI implementation is recognized. Investment Insight: High-quality recurring revenue and AI monetization capabilities support long-term growth logic.
5. IBM - Slight revenue growth but guidance lowered Event Overview: Q2 revenue was $17.2 billion, a 1% year-on-year increase; adjusted EPS was below expectations. The full-year revenue growth guidance was lowered from "over 5%" to "4%-5%," with a significant decline in the mainframe business. Market Interpretation: The software business is stable, but hardware drag is evident, and the lowered guidance raises caution. Investment Insight: The transformation process still needs time to verify, and attention should be paid to the speed of increasing the software proportion.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market may have already formed. He believes Bitcoin has "matured" into a macro asset, with prices driven by macro factors such as real interest rates and economic growth, rather than the four-year halving cycle. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets correspond with economic slowdowns and rising real interest rates, and the current macro backdrop is similar to the past. If the Federal Reserve abandons rate hikes and the economy remains strong, Bitcoin prices may have already bottomed.

2. Alphabet, Google's parent company, announced its Q2 earnings report for the fiscal year 2026 on July 22 local time. The company achieved revenue of $119.8 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, exceeding market expectations; GAAP operating profit was $40.8 billion, a 30% year-on-year increase, with an operating profit margin rising to 34%; GAAP EPS was $9.11, above market expectations. Notably, net profit for the quarter was significantly boosted by investment income (including fair value changes of certain equity investments).

3. Tesla maintained its Bitcoin holdings unchanged in the second quarter, still holding 11,509 BTC, continuing a nearly four-year record of not buying or selling Bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin's price drop from about $83,000 to $58,000 during the quarter, Tesla reported a $112 million after-tax impairment loss on its digital asset holdings.

4. Apple plans to upgrade its entire Mac lineup, including iMac, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, Mac mini, and Mac Studio, this fall to next year to meet the growing demand for AI computing. Reports indicate that Apple will launch an entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro equipped with the new M6 chip, as well as the first update to the iMac in two years, and will release high-end 14/16-inch MacBooks with OLED touch screens and M5 Pro/M5 Max chips by the end of this year to early next year. The company is also developing new MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, and OLED iMac models equipped with M7 series chips, and upgrading the entry-level MacBook Neo with A19 Pro chips and memory configurations. Currently, the demand for Mac mini and Mac Studio in AI application scenarios is strong, with some models' delivery cycles extended to three months, and supply constraints are also affecting the launch rhythm of new models.

5. Sui officially announced that its Bitcoin cross-chain solution Hashi, announced in March this year, is now live on the testnet, allowing users to use native BTC as programmable collateral on Sui without needing to transfer BTC out of the Bitcoin mainnet. The official stated that Hashi uses a 2-of-2 multi-signature mechanism through the Guardian Layer, with Hashi validators and independent guardians jointly signing to manage BTC pledged assets.

6. OpenAI is expanding the scale of its data centers and increasing its spending budget in this area. According to insiders, OpenAI has raised its forecast for computing power spending by 2030 from about $600 billion earlier this year to about $750 billion.

7. Anthropic will begin purchasing up to 2 gigawatts of AMD's latest generation chips (named Instinct MI450) in the first half of 2027.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|----|----|-------------|-----| | TBD | US | Monitoring relevant employment and inflation data | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Evening | Japan | Possible speeches by central bank officials | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Preview

July 23 (Thursday)

1. American Airlines, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, Nokia, and Raytheon Technologies will announce earnings before the US stock market opens.
2. ★★★★★ Intel will release its earnings report after the market closes, focusing on chip demand and AI-related prospects; July 24 (Friday)
3. ★★★★ Trump will attend the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, and his speech may impact the market;
4. ★★★★ AMD will hold the Advancing AI conference, with CEO Lisa Su delivering a speech discussing AI agents, model optimization, etc.

Institutional Views:

In the past 24 hours, US stocks slightly declined against the backdrop of rising oil prices and rate hike expectations, with significant differentiation in tech stocks. Institutions generally believe that Alphabet and Tesla's earnings reports validate the demand for AI and electric vehicles, but the negative capital expenditures and cash flow have led to market divergence regarding the return cycle. Oil surged due to geopolitical risks, reinforcing hawkish pricing, while gold and silver benefited from safe-haven demand. The cryptocurrency market, on the other hand, experienced fluctuations due to regulatory legislative expectations and macro pressures. Overall, in the short term, the market will seek a balance between the "long-term narrative of AI" and "short-term policies and geopolitical risks," with funds leaning towards targets with clear cash flow improvement paths.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.