Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Broadcom (AVGO) releases financial report after hours; oil prices return to the $90 mark; US stocks close lower but still gain in August (September 1, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

September rate hike pricing remains high, this week's ISM and non-farm data will be the test

• After Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole, the market maintains the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September at about 58%.
• The two-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high, with short-term rates suppressing growth stocks and precious metals.
• This week's focus shifts to the August ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected around 55.2) and Friday's non-farm payrolls, as the data will determine whether rate hike pricing can be further adjusted.
  Market Impact: The interest rate path combined with rising oil prices raises concerns about persistent inflation; if ISM and employment slow down, the probability of a rate hike may still decline.

International Commodities

Trump suggests potential escalation of strikes against Iran, oil prices rise significantly

• The U.S. military struck two missile launchers on Alarak Island over the weekend, indicating that Iran was preparing to launch rockets equipped with mines towards the Strait of Hormuz; Iran subsequently claimed to retaliate.
• Trump stated that potential strikes could escalate and released images related to Alarak Island on social media, but Reuters reported that the U.S. has not confirmed strikes on that oil export hub.
• Brent crude surpassed $90, and WTI rebounded to around $85, showing a significant rebound from last Friday's lows.
  Market Impact: The safety of navigation and export facilities in the Strait has become central to pricing, with rising oil prices reinforcing the inflation and rate hike loop, while energy stocks are relatively resilient.

Macroeconomic Policy

Secondary sanctions and strategic reserve narratives run in parallel

• The Treasury Department continues to advance secondary sanctions against Iran at a "weekly addition" pace, focusing on banks, shipping, and digital asset channels.
• Trump previously stated that he would use Venezuelan oil to replenish strategic reserves, but the White House has yet to release verifiable details.
• Canada's counter-tariffs are still set to take effect on September 8.
  Market Impact: Policy signals lean towards a hardline stance, but short-term oil prices are still dominated by battlefield news; trade and sanctions spillover may disrupt dollar liquidity expectations.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,459/ounce, +0.23%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $66.8/ounce, +0.47%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $86.6/barrel, +1.04%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $88.87/barrel, +0.57%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.4, -0.01%

Driving Factors Analysis: Renewed clashes between the U.S. and Iran and Trump's escalation statements push crude oil back into the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent returning to $90. Gold failed to rise in sync, indicating that funds are trading "oil prices---inflation---rate hikes" rather than purely seeking safe havens. Institutional views suggest that short-term commodities will continue to diverge: geopolitical factors support oil prices, while hawkish rates suppress precious metals. If export facilities like Alarak Island are materially struck, oil price fluctuations may significantly amplify.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $78,750, +1.04%
• ETH: Approximately $2,473, +1.9%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.74 trillion, +2.1%
• Market Liquidation Situation: $158 million liquidated in 24 hours, with $110 million in short liquidations
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC's current price is about $78,700, with a large concentration of short liquidations in the $79,500---$80,000 range; if it breaks above $80, it may trigger further short squeezes. There is concentrated long liquidation pressure around $77,500---$78,000; if it falls below $78,000, leveraged longs may accelerate their exit, and short-term volatility risk remains high.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Net outflow of approximately $202 million on August 28, ending a nine-day inflow streak; complete data for Monday is pending update.

Driving Factors Analysis: U.S. stock declines, rising oil prices, and sustained high rate hike probabilities exert pressure on risk assets, but Bitcoin is relatively more resilient than gold and stock indices, recording about a 23% increase in August. ETH is weaker than BTC, indicating that funds are leaning more towards "hard assets" rather than high-beta altcoins. Institutional consensus points to short-term pricing driven by both geopolitical and interest rate factors, with $80,000 remaining a dividing line for bulls and bears.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 53,196.54 points, down 0.68%
• S&P 500: Closed at approximately 7,677 points, down 0.45%
• Nasdaq: Closed at approximately 26,310 points, down about 0.35%, with energy and Tesla partially offsetting tech declines

Overall, August still saw gains: the Dow rose about 1.4% for the month, while the S&P and Nasdaq rose approximately 2.4% and 3.5%, respectively.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $219.40, up 0.85%
• AAPL: $315.40, down 1.35%
• MSFT: $510.90, down 0.51%
• GOOGL: $338.00, down 2.48%
• AMZN: $260.90, down 2.08%
• META: $571.70, down 1.09%
• TSLA: $365.90, up 4.91%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Monday saw a broad decline with structural divergence. Google was a major drag on the index, while Amazon gave back gains from last Friday's cloud logic; Nvidia stabilized and rebounded after a sharp drop, indicating that selling pressure has eased. Tesla surged nearly 5%, becoming the most important hedge for the Nasdaq, with funds trading its energy and grid narrative. Overall, "geopolitical + interest rates" continue to suppress growth valuations, while individual stocks depend on whether they have independent catalysts.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Strengthening

• Representative Stocks: ExxonMobil rose about 2%, with large oil stocks generally following oil prices upward.
• Driving Factors: Clashes on Alarak Island and expectations of expanded strikes push up the premium for supply disruptions.

Electric Vehicles/Energy Tech Rising Against the Trend

• Representative Stocks: Tesla rose nearly 5%.
• Driving Factors: The narrative of solar energy and grid autonomy combined with a rebound from oversold conditions, with funds seeking flexibility independent of rate hike trades.

Large Tech/Internet Pullback

• Representative Stocks: Google fell over 2%, Amazon fell over 2%, Apple fell over 1%.
• Driving Factors: Rising oil prices strengthen rate hike pricing, putting pressure on long-duration growth stocks, with some of last Friday's cloud stock premiums being realized.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Tesla (TSLA) - Surges nearly 5% Against the Trend

Event Overview: Tesla closed up about 4.9% on Monday, ending at $365.90, making it the most significant hedge among the three major indices. Musk previously confirmed that SpaceX and Tesla are accelerating the construction of 100 GW solar capacity per year and advancing the self-manufacturing of core components for gas turbines to shorten power supply lead times.
Market Interpretation: Institutions view the rise as a trade of "energy autonomy + oversold recovery," rather than a fundamental shift in deliveries. Against the backdrop of rising oil prices and grid constraints becoming an AI bottleneck, Tesla's generation and storage narrative is being repriced. Analysts caution that while short-term elasticity is high, verification of capacity realization and gross margins is still needed.
Investment Insight: Suitable as a high-beta energy tech allocation, but positions should match its volatility.

2. Google (GOOGL) - Major Drag on the Index

Event Overview: Google fell about 2.5%, making it a significant contributor to the declines in the S&P and Nasdaq. Last Friday, it strengthened due to cloud inference revenue-sharing logic, but on Monday, it fell back with risk appetite.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this is a systemic discount for interest rate-sensitive growth stocks, rather than a disproof of cloud business. Barclays' "model profit flows to cloud giants" logic remains, but rising oil prices and rate hike expectations will first impact highly valued internet stocks.
Investment Insight: Mid-term outlook remains on cloud and advertising resilience, while short-term follows actual interest rate fluctuations.

3. Nvidia (NVDA) - Stabilizes After Sharp Drop

Event Overview: Nvidia rose about 0.85%, closing at $219.40, ending last Friday's 4.57% pullback. The company recently provided guidance for approximately 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028.
Market Interpretation: Institutions view it as a technical recovery after a crowded trade liquidation, with demand logic unchanged despite a one-day drop. Rate hike expectations still limit valuation expansion, with the next catalyst being supply and customer capital expenditures.
Investment Insight: Mid-term demand narrative remains, while short-term avoids chasing after already realized elasticity.

4. Amazon (AMZN) - Gives Back Cloud Logic Gains

Event Overview: Amazon fell about 2.1%, partially giving back nearly 4% gains from last Friday. Barclays' view on AI inference profit flows to AWS is still under discussion.
Market Interpretation: Funds are oscillating between the "cloud toll booth" logic and macro discounts. If rising oil prices continue to elevate rate hike probabilities, cloud stocks will also face duration pressure, though the fundamental buffer is stronger than pure hardware.
Investment Insight: Focus on AWS growth rates and capital expenditure efficiency, rather than single-day thematic trading.

5. ExxonMobil (XOM) - Direct Beneficiary of Oil Price Rebound

Event Overview: ExxonMobil rose about 2%, following the rebound in WTI and Brent. The market is re-evaluating risks related to the Strait of Hormuz and export facilities.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that as long as the Strait and Gulf export hubs face substantial threats, integrated oil giants remain the most direct geopolitical hedge. Trump's narrative regarding Venezuelan reserves is more medium to long-term and cannot offset short-term supply disruption premiums.
Investment Insight: As an oil price elastic allocation, it is necessary to track navigation and Alarak Island-related news.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Bitcoin holds around $78,000 amidst renewed U.S.-Iran clashes, with an approximately 23% increase in August, outperforming gold and the Nasdaq.

2. The U.S. expands sanctions on Iranian digital assets and shipping, increasing compliance pressure, but the market simultaneously trades the demand for hard assets against "weaponization of the dollar."

3. According to a16z crypto analysis, one-fifth of Argentina's population uses cryptocurrency, making it one of the highest usage rates in Latin America. Stablecoins (especially USD stablecoins) were initially an emergency solution to currency controls and hyperinflation, but even as economic pressures ease, people continue to use them, gradually forming a habit.

In Argentine peso crypto transactions, 94% flows into stablecoins, the highest among the major currencies tracked by Artemis. Despite Argentina's monthly inflation rate dropping from a peak of 25.5% to 2.1%, downloads of mainstream crypto wallets like Lemon continue to grow, and the use of stablecoin salaries is stabilizing rather than disappearing. As of July 2026, the proportion of contract workers in Argentina receiving payments in USDC is at about one-fifth of their respective peaks alongside inflation indicators.

4. Institutions have analyzed that despite tightening macro conditions, Bitcoin remains stable above $77,100. After Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole last week, BTC fell from above $81,000, but the rise in August was primarily driven by spot buying rather than excessive leverage—open interest gradually increased, and the basis remained relatively restrained, with nearly $1 billion net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, and Ethereum investment products seeing a net inflow of $815.7 million for ten consecutive days.

On the macro front, U.S. PCE inflation is at 3.7%, core inflation at 3.3%, annualized growth in private demand for Q2 at 4.2%, and a deficit of $1.8 trillion in the first ten months of the fiscal year. Warsh confirmed that the 2% inflation target is a hard constraint, raising the market's probability of a September rate hike to 57%. Bitfinex believes that ETF and stablecoin liquidity continues to support prices, but rate hike expectations limit upside potential; if crypto inflows remain resilient, it will prove that underlying demand remains solid.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|----------------------|-------| | 22:00 | U.S. | August ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected around 55.2) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Ongoing | Middle East | U.S.-Iran military and Strait of Hormuz navigation | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

September 1 (Tuesday)

1. The U.S. will release the final value of the August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (21:45) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00);
2. G20 Innovation/Technology Ministerial Meeting opens (September 1-2, Chapel Hill, North Carolina), with Musk (planning to attend via video), Jensen Huang, Altman, and other tech giants participating;
3. ★★★ Medtronic (MDT) and NIO will release earnings before the market opens; Dell (DELL), MongoDB (MDB), Palo Alto (PANW), and Credo (CRDO) will report after hours.

September 2 (Wednesday)

1. The U.S. will release August ADP employment numbers (around 20:15) and EIA crude oil inventories (22:30);
2. The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book (14:00 EST, approximately 02:00 Beijing time on September 3);
3. ★★★★★ Broadcom (AVGO) will release earnings after hours (core focus on AI business revenue and subsequent guidance);
4. ★★★ HPE, Snowflake (SNOW), and NetApp (NTAP) will report after hours; FuelCell Energy (FCEL) will release earnings before the market opens.

September 3 (Thursday)

1. The U.S. will release initial jobless claims (20:30), final value of the S&P Global Services PMI (21:45), and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (22:00);
2. ★★★★★ Fed Governor Waller will speak on inflation prospects (20:30, Reuters interview), a key statement ahead of the September meeting;
3. Tesla will hold a Cybercab launch event in Austin, Texas;
4. ★★★ Ciena will report before the market opens, while DocuSign, Lululemon, Zscaler, and others will report after hours.

September 4 (Friday)

1. ★★★★★ The U.S. will release August non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate (20:30), with the market expecting an increase of about 45,000 to 55,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of about 4.1% (previous value in July was -23,000, consensus may still be slightly adjusted);
2. The U.S. will release the August Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (22:00); attention is on comments from Cleveland Fed President Harker and other voting members this week.

*This week's core theme in U.S. stocks revolves around August non-farm payrolls and the Fed's September rate hike expectations, Waller's inflation statements, earnings reports from Broadcom and Dell regarding AI capital expenditures, the G20 tech summit, and Tesla's Cybercab launch, with expected increased market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe that the main line of trading on Monday remains "escalation of strikes → rising oil prices → persistent inflation → sustained rate hike probabilities." U.S. stocks closed lower but still gained in August, indicating that the adjustment is more about risk premium recovery rather than a trend reversal. Bitcoin is relatively resilient, showing that some funds continue to view it as a macro hedge. Energy and Tesla provide structural hedges, while large internet stocks are more sensitive to actual interest rates. Overall strategy recommendation: closely monitor the Strait of Hormuz and ISM/non-farm data, remain flexible on high-valuation growth stocks, while maintaining hedging weights in energy and hard assets.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.