1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Waller reiterates anti-inflation priority, September rate hike pricing significantly revised upward

• Federal Reserve Chairman Waller did not provide a clear interest rate path during his debut at Jackson Hole but emphasized that if inflation does not return to 2% "quickly enough and clearly enough," the Fed "still has more work to do."
• The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose about 11 basis points in a single day; CME shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September increased from about 35% to approximately 58%---60%.
• Former Vice Chairman Blinder believes this statement itself constitutes another form of forward guidance; analysts point out that the September non-farm payroll and CPI will still determine the final pricing.
  Market Impact: Short-end rate revisions suppress overvalued growth stocks and precious metals, while the dollar strengthens; if subsequent data weakens again, rate hike pricing may still retreat.

International Commodities

U.S.-Iran clashes resume, risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz rises

• The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claims to have launched missiles at U.S. military bases and stated that U.S. airstrikes on facilities on Qeshm Island caused casualties; U.S. officials said the military struck two missile launchers on the island as Iran prepared to launch rockets equipped with mines into the strait.
• The U.S. Central Command has redirected 83 commercial vessels and rendered 3 vessels incapable of navigation, inspecting 2 others.
• Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Treasury plans to impose secondary sanctions on Iran weekly, starting with banks.
  Market Impact: Diplomatic breakthrough expectations were interrupted by weekend clashes, oil prices re-priced supply disruption risks, and concerns about sticky inflation and safe-haven demand intensified.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump claims to fill strategic reserves with Venezuelan oil

• Trump stated that he has reached an agreement with Venezuela to gain "major control" over more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves and plans to use this to fill the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve.
• The White House has yet to release formal details of the agreement, and the market remains cautious about its feasibility.
• Canadian counter-tariffs are still set to take effect on September 8, with North American trade friction and energy supply narratives running parallel.
  Market Impact: If the reserve replenishment materializes, it may alleviate U.S. domestic oil price pressure in the medium to long term; however, short-term oil prices are still dominated by the Strait of Hormuz conflict, with a gap between policy signals and battlefield realities.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,440/ounce, -3.4%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $66.4/ounce, -0.32%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $85/barrel, +2.03%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $87/barrel, +2.06%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.63, -0.04%

Driving Factors Analysis: Waller's speech boosted short-end rates and the dollar, leading to significant profit-taking in gold and silver last Friday, with gold prices retreating over 2% from their highs. Weekend U.S.-Iran clashes interrupted "negotiation cooling" trades, and crude oil re-included risks of disruption in the strait. Institutions believe that short-term commodities exhibit a "hawkish rate pressure on precious metals, geopolitical rebound supporting oil" divergence: rising oil prices may reinforce sticky inflation, in turn supporting rate hike pricing, forming a closed loop of oil price---inflation---interest rates.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $77,625, -0.58%
• ETH: Approximately $2,417, -1.62%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.68 trillion, -1%
• Market Liquidation Situation: $391 million liquidated in 24 hours, with $270 million in long positions liquidated
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC current price around $77,600, with significant short liquidation pressure concentrated in the $79,000---$80,000 range; if it reclaims $79,000, it may trigger noticeable short squeezes. Liquidation of long positions is dense around $76,500---$77,500; if it falls below $77,000, leveraged long positions may accelerate liquidation, with short-term downside risks still present.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Net outflow of approximately $202 million on August 28, ending a previous nine-day streak of net inflows.

Driving Factors Analysis: Waller's hawkish stance and the ETF turning to net outflows interrupted BTC's momentum after surpassing $80,000. ETH remained relatively stable over the weekend, indicating that funds have not fully withdrawn from risk assets, but high-beta crowded trades are deleveraging. Institutional consensus points to short-term dominance by rate pricing and geopolitical factors, with $80,000 shifting from support to resistance, necessitating observation of fund inflows before this week's non-farm payroll.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 53,559.99 points, down 0.02%
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,711.76 points, down 0.25%
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,402.42 points, down 0.52%, chip stocks gave back gains from the previous day

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $217.55, down 4.57%
• AAPL: $319.70, up 1.63%
• MSFT: $513.53, up 1.68%
• GOOGL: $346.59, up 1.74%
• AMZN: $266.43, up 3.97%
• META: $578.02, up 1.21%
• TSLA: $348.75, down 1.71%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Index declines were limited, but structural divergence was evident. Nvidia gave back gains the day after a surge, dragging down the Nasdaq; Amazon, Microsoft, and Google attracted funds due to Barclays' logic of "AI inference profits flowing to cloud giants." Apple performed steadily, while Tesla fell back with risk appetite. The market shifted from "computing hardware trades" to "cloud infrastructure monetization," indicating a reallocation of pricing power within the same AI narrative.

Sector Movement Observation

Cloud Services/AI Applications Relatively Resilient

• Representative Stocks: Amazon rose nearly 4%, Workday rose nearly 6%, ServiceNow rose over 4%, Elastic rose over 19%.
• Driving Factors: Barclays estimates that 35%---45% of operating profits from AI model companies flow to the three major clouds, with funds shifting from crowded hardware trades to cloud monetization.

Semiconductors Retracing from High Levels

• Representative Stocks: Nvidia fell over 4%, Intel fell nearly 3%, Marvell fell about 10%.
• Driving Factors: Rising rate hike expectations combined with some earnings reports "failing to meet high expectations," led to technical profit-taking in Nvidia the previous day.

Energy Geopolitical Premium Rising

• Representative Stocks: Large oil stocks showed mixed performance last Friday, with futures strengthening after weekend clashes.
• Driving Factors: Clashes on Qeshm Island and secondary sanctions reinforced pricing for supply disruptions.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Nvidia (NVDA) - Gave back over 4% the day after a surge

Event Overview: Nvidia fell 4.57% last Friday, closing at $217.55, giving back a significant portion of Thursday's nearly 9% gain. The company just reported a doubling of revenue year-on-year, with data center revenue of $89 billion, and provided guidance for approximately 70% growth in fiscal year 2028. The pullback occurred against the backdrop of Waller's speech raising rate hike probabilities and Marvell's earnings failing to meet high expectations.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this is more of a technical profit-taking from crowded trades rather than a refutation of demand logic. Mizuho pointed out that the revised rate hike probabilities are unfavorable for long-duration growth stocks and high-beta tech. Analysts are focused on whether the next catalyst will come from supply releases, customer capital expenditures, or ecosystem mergers and acquisitions.
Investment Insight: The medium-term demand narrative remains, but short-term volatility has increased, making it unwise to linearly extrapolate a single day's surge.

2. Amazon (AMZN) - Cloud revenue logic drives nearly 4% increase

Event Overview: Amazon rose 3.97%, closing at $266.43, making it the strongest performer among the seven giants. Barclays reported that AI model companies allocate about $35---40 of every $100 in revenue to inference computing costs flowing to AWS, Azure, and GCP, allowing cloud vendors to earn about $10---20 in operating profit, corresponding to a 35%---45% operating profit margin.
Market Interpretation: Institutions view the increase as a repricing of AI profit distribution: hardware bottlenecks remain, but incremental profits are increasingly retained in the cloud. Analysts caution that as computing supply increases and competition among models intensifies, this profit margin may gradually decline, thus more attention should be paid to AWS growth rates and capital expenditure efficiency.
Investment Insight: Cloud giants are becoming the "toll booths" for AI monetization, making them suitable for relatively stable exposure during high-volatility hardware phases.

3. Microsoft (MSFT) / Google (GOOGL) - Both benefit from cloud inference narrative

Event Overview: Microsoft rose 1.68%, and Google rose 1.74%. Barclays listed Azure and GCP alongside AWS as core beneficiaries, noting that laboratory-paid inference profit margins have risen from low double digits in 2025 to 50%---65% in 2026.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe the market is beginning to distinguish between "shovel sellers" and "cloud sellers." Microsoft combines models and cloud, while Google has its own TPU and a cash cow in search. Rate hike expectations still exert pressure on high valuations, but the fundamental narrative is more cash flow-oriented than hardware.
Investment Insight: Focus on cloud growth rates, AI-related revenue disclosure standards, and capital expenditure returns, rather than short-term rate noise.

4. Marvell (MRVL) - Performance improvement still fails to meet high expectations

Event Overview: Marvell raised its guidance and recorded revenue and profit growth, but its stock price still fell about 10%, becoming a representative stock in the semiconductor pullback.
Market Interpretation: Institutions point out that the pricing threshold for AI-related targets has been raised too high by Nvidia, and "decent growth but not amazing" can trigger valuation cuts. Rising rate hike expectations further amplify duration pressure.
Investment Insight: High-expectation industries pay more attention to guidance slope and market share rather than just year-on-year positive growth.

5. Tesla (TSLA) - Energy narrative diverges from risk appetite

Event Overview: Tesla fell 1.71%, closing at $348.75. Musk stated that SpaceX and Tesla are rapidly building solar capacity of 100 gigawatts per year and confirmed that SpaceX is self-manufacturing gas turbine blades to shorten ramp-up time.
Market Interpretation: The narrative of grid and energy independence provides medium-term increments, but Friday's pricing was still dominated by rate hike expectations and a retreat in tech beta. Institutions believe that the energy capacity ramp-up cycle is long, making it difficult to offset short-term risk appetite fluctuations.
Investment Insight: Observe energy and computing power supply layouts in the medium term, while still being influenced by growth stock sentiment in the short term.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Data: Tokens like HYPE and SUI will see significant unlocks this week, with HYPE unlocking over $36 million in value.

2. U.S.-Iran clashes resumed over the weekend, with the Revolutionary Guard claiming to have launched missiles at U.S. military bases, and U.S. forces striking launchers on Qeshm Island, leading to fluctuations in crypto market risk appetite alongside oil prices and interest rates.

3. Yellen stated that secondary sanctions on Iran will be added weekly, starting with banks, making dollar liquidity and cross-border settlement expectations new variables in crypto pricing.

4. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Cohen: Waller's speech reversed the Fed's previous logic, and the current default choice is to raise rates.

5. Trump stated he will use Venezuelan oil to fill strategic reserves, with energy supply narratives coexisting with the Strait of Hormuz conflict, and the market still prioritizing battlefield news for short-term oil prices.

6. CryptoQuant analysts: BTC's weekly market cap has increased by over $4.6 billion, with new fund inflows supporting the rise.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|------|----|-------------|-------| | This Week's Focus | U.S. | ISM Manufacturing/Non-Farm Payroll Preview | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Ongoing | Middle East | U.S.-Iran Military and Sanctions Progress | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecasts

• U.S.-Iran Conflict: Focus on Strait of Hormuz navigation, secondary sanctions lists, and the scale of commercial vessel rerouting.
• September Policy Pricing: Rate hike probabilities have risen to about 60%, awaiting this week's and next week's employment and ISM data.
• U.S. Labor Day Trading Week: Liquidity may be low, with geopolitical and interest rate news having greater price elasticity.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe that although Waller's speech did not specifically mention a September rate hike, the statement "anti-inflation remains the top priority" is sufficient to drive short-end yields and rate hike probabilities upward, leading to profit-taking in growth stocks. Weekend U.S.-Iran clashes have raised oil price risk premiums again, making sticky inflation and interest rate paths more difficult to quickly shift towards easing. Nvidia's pullback and the strength of cloud giants indicate that AI trades are shifting from hardware elasticity to cloud infrastructure profit distribution. The crypto market lost support at $80,000 after the ETF turned to outflows, becoming more reliant on macro and geopolitical factors in the short term. Overall strategy recommendation: increase weight on the oil price---inflation---interest rate loop, maintain flexibility on high-valuation chips, and focus on the relative cost-effectiveness of cloud services, energy security, and safe-haven assets.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data mentioned may inevitably contain discrepancies; please refer to real-time market data.