Bitget UEX Daily Report | New US tariffs come into effect amid rising Middle East risks; Intel's performance exceeds expectations as AI competition changes; Seven giants all decline with Tesla suffering a heavy loss (July 24, 2026)

# I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Oil prices surge raises interest rate hike expectations, market factors in about 36% probability of a rate hike next week

• The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has caused Brent crude oil to exceed $100, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.365%, and the 10-year and 30-year yields also reaching new highs for the year.
• The CME's "FedWatch" indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike next week is close to 36%. Market Impact: Inflation concerns are heating up, short-term interest rate-sensitive assets are under pressure, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are rising in tandem, and risk appetite for risk assets has significantly declined.

International Commodities

New U.S. tariffs take effect today, Middle East risks elevate oil prices

• New import tariffs will be implemented starting at 00:01 Eastern Time on Friday, with rates ranging from 10% to 12.5%, covering about 60 economies; Mexico, the UK, Canada, and India are subject to 10%, the EU at least 10%, and Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland at least 12.5%.
• Attacks on Saudi oil tankers and escalating U.S.-Iran conflicts have caused Brent to briefly exceed $100. Market Impact: Rising trade costs combined with geopolitical risk premiums are pushing up energy prices in the short term and strengthening inflation expectations, benefiting some safe-haven assets but suppressing risk appetite.

U.S.-Iran Dynamics

Middle East conflict escalates, U.S. threatens large-scale action

• Trump stated he is seriously considering restarting large-scale military operations against Iran and warned that attacks by Houthi forces would hold Iran accountable; both Iran and the Houthis claim they are prepared to respond.
• The Israeli Defense Minister has also stated that they are ready. Market Impact: Geopolitical risk premiums are directly pushing up oil prices and safe-haven demand, while also raising interest rate hike expectations through the inflation channel, leading to increased overall market volatility.

# II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,050/ounce, +0.02%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $57.75/ounce, +0.17%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $92.14/barrel, -0.05%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $87/barrel, +0.1%
• Dollar Index (DXY): 101.426, -0.02

Driving Factors Analysis: The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on Saudi oil tankers are directly pushing up oil prices, combined with the implementation of new U.S. tariffs reinforcing trade cost concerns, leading to a significant rise in inflation expectations. Gold and silver, as safe-haven assets, are supported, but a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields are exerting pressure. Institutional views suggest that short-term commodities are still driven by both geopolitical and policy factors, with high energy prices potentially extending the Fed's tightening expectations, creating a chain reaction of rising oil prices → inflation concerns → rising interest rates → pressure on risk assets.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $65,000, -1.82%
• ETH: Approximately $1,870, -3.35%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: $2.31 trillion, -1.1%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h is $252 million, with long positions liquidated at $189 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price is approximately $64,829, with a large number of short liquidation orders clustered between $65,500 and $66,500; if the price continues to rise, it may trigger concentrated short covering, accelerating the market upward. Long liquidations are mainly concentrated in the $64,000 to $63,500 range, but the overall liquidation scale is smaller than above, indicating that the short-term liquidation structure still leans towards sweeping up short liquidity first.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday's net inflow was $69 million, with a current 24h dynamic net outflow of $23 million.

Driving Factors Analysis: The decline in U.S. stock risk appetite and soaring oil prices are raising interest rate hike expectations, creating macro pressure on the cryptocurrency market. ETF fund flows indicate cautious institutional attitudes, and leveraged liquidations reflect sensitive sentiment. BTC is relatively holding key ranges, while ETH shows weaker elasticity. Institutional consensus points to a short-term bearish fluctuation, requiring attention to Fed policy signals and geopolitical developments affecting risk assets.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 51,711.65 points, down 0.97%
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,408.30 points, down 1.21%
• Nasdaq: Closed at 25,137.69 points, down 2.15%, with technology and growth under significant pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: 208.76 (-1.56%)
• AAPL: 321.66 (-1.30%)
• MSFT: 381.58 (-2.24%)
• GOOGL: 317.69 (-7.13%)
• AMZN: 233.66 (-4.57%)
• META: 606.10 (-3.36%)
• TSLA: 319.69 (-14.52%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The seven tech giants collectively declined, with Tesla plummeting in a single day due to Q2 profits falling far short of expectations, and Google raising its full-year capital expenditure to a maximum of $205 billion, raising concerns about AI spending. The Middle East conflict is pushing up oil prices and interest rate hike expectations, jointly suppressing risk appetite. Individual stock differentiation is significant: the storage sector rose against the trend, while high-valuation growth stocks faced heavier pressure, indicating a market shift from "AI narrative" to "return verification" and macro risk pricing.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept Rises Against the Trend

• Representative Stocks: Micron Technology rose 3.2%, SK Hynix rose 2.56%.
• Driving Factors: Google's increased AI spending benefits high-bandwidth memory demand, with funds flowing back into supply-demand tight segments amid an overall pullback.

Defense and Aerospace Strengthens

• Representative Stocks: Lockheed Martin rose 10.54%, Raytheon Technologies rose 7.33%.
• Driving Factors: The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East is boosting expectations for inventory replenishment and defense demand.

Semiconductors Overall Under Pressure

• Representative Stocks: Texas Instruments fell 3.13%, AMD fell 2.29%, Intel fell 2.33%.
• Driving Factors: A decline in macro risk appetite combined with challenges in managing expectations for some individual stocks.

# III. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Intel (INTC) - Q2 Earnings Significantly Exceed Expectations

Event Overview: Intel's Q2 revenue was $16.13 billion, a 25% year-on-year increase (estimated at $14.43 billion); data center and AI revenue was $6.26 billion (estimated at $5.54 billion); adjusted EPS was $0.42 (estimated at $0.21). Q3 guidance for revenue is $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, and adjusted EPS is $0.38, both exceeding market expectations. Executives stated that server CPU sales are experiencing strong double-digit growth, and capital expenditures in 2027 will be significantly higher than in 2026. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this is one of the strongest growths in fifteen years, with clear validation of AI demand, reshaping Intel's position in the data center and AI chip competition. Analysts are focusing on changes in its competitive landscape with AMD and Nvidia and the long-term capital expenditure rhythm. Investment Insight: Earnings and guidance exceeding expectations provide mid-term support; attention should be paid to subsequent execution and market share changes.

2. Tesla (TSLA) - Earnings Report Falls Short of Expectations, Plummets

Event Overview: Tesla's Q2 profits fell far short of expectations, with the stock price plummeting about 14%-15% in a single day, and short sellers realizing about $4.12 billion in profits. The short-selling ratio is the highest among the seven giants (about 3% of float). Analysts at Societe Generale maintain a sell rating with a target price of $280, pointing out that the valuation already implies extremely high AI expectations. Market Interpretation: Institutions are cautious about aggressive capital expenditures and the speed of AI advancements; while deliveries are strong, the quality of profits and the commercialization progress of Robotaxi remain key variables. Retail investors are increasing their positions against the trend, but institutions are more focused on return verification. Investment Insight: Short-term volatility is amplified; tracking the actual contributions of AI and energy businesses and adjustments to full-year guidance is necessary.

3. Google (GOOGL) - Strong Cloud Business but Capital Expenditure Increase Raises Concerns

Event Overview: Google's cloud CEO stated that actual spending by existing customers is about 50% higher than commitments, driving rapid growth in the cloud business. However, the company raised its full-year capital expenditure to a maximum of $205 billion, causing the stock price to drop over 7% at one point. Market Interpretation: Institutions recognize the differentiated advantages and execution capabilities of the cloud business, but concerns are rising about the return cycle of continuously expanding AI investments. Analysts are closely monitoring the resilience of search advertising and the efficiency of capital expenditures. Investment Insight: Long-term benefits for the cloud and AI ecosystem, but short-term verification of the revenue conversion speed of high expenditures is needed.

4. AMD - Advancing AI Inference Collaboration

Event Overview: AMD's CEO announced a partnership with Cerebras to launch an AI inference solution combining Helios GPU racks with Cerebras wafer-level chips, with products expected to hit the market later this year. Anthropic completed full adaptation of AMD chips with Claude over the weekend, seen as a signal that CUDA's moat is being eroded by AI's own capabilities. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this strengthens AMD's competitiveness in the AI inference field, as hardware lock-in logic faces challenges, benefiting a multi-vendor landscape. Investment Insight: Attention should be paid to the implementation of collaborations and changes in market share as part of diversified AI computing power allocation.

5. Nvidia (NVDA) - Partnership with Amkor for Packaging Collaboration

Event Overview: Nvidia has reached a $1.5 billion multi-year partnership with Amkor to jointly develop advanced packaging and testing technologies for next-generation AI and accelerated computing platforms, with Nvidia providing prepayment to support U.S. production capacity expansion. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this strengthens supply chain resilience and advanced packaging capabilities, aligning with the ongoing expansion trend of AI infrastructure. Investment Insight: Long-term benefits for the AI computing power ecosystem, with attention to the progress of capacity implementation.

# IV. Market & Project Dynamics

1. The Argentine government is advancing the relaxation of capital market regulations, planning to allow mutual funds (FCI) to invest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and permitting virtual assets as collateral. This measure originates from a draft "Deregulation Bill" drafted by Minister of Economy Federico Sturzenegger, currently awaiting President Javier Milei's signature before submission to Congress.

2. Blockworks researcher Luke Leasure released a report indicating that Bitcoin may be at or near a cyclical low. BTC has fallen 50% from its historical high, with the bear market lasting over 40 weeks, and several high time frame indicators simultaneously reaching historically rare levels. Bitcoin recorded the most severe relative oversold reading against the Nasdaq ever this month, and also set a record for relative oversold against gold in February. The realized price (on-chain average cost basis) is approximately $53,000, only 18% lower than spot, and historically, every bear market low has traded at a discount below this level.

3. Intel provided an unexpectedly strong revenue forecast for the current quarter, indicating that the surge in data center spending is helping to drive the long-awaited recovery for this chip manufacturer. The company stated on Thursday that Q3 revenue is expected to be between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion. Even at the lower end of the forecast range, this is significantly higher than the average analyst estimate of $15.1 billion. This performance outlook highlights Intel's progress in its data center customer base, which is urgently seeking chips to meet AI computing power demands.

4. On the 23rd local time, the U.S. Senate voted 49 to 47 to reject a resolution aimed at limiting Trump's war powers against Iran. This resolution, led by Democrats, aimed to prevent the Trump administration from taking military action against Iran without congressional authorization. Earlier that day, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a resolution again calling for the Trump administration to cease military actions against Iran.

5. Just as the 150-day global temporary tariffs are set to expire this Friday, the Trump administration has introduced new tariff measures. Media reports indicate that the U.S. Trade Representative's office announced on July 23 that, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, tariffs of 10% to 12.5% will be imposed on dozens of countries and regions for failing to prevent "forced labor," effective at 00:01 Eastern Time on the 24th.

6. The AMD Advancing AI conference was held in San Francisco on July 22-23. At the conference, AMD CEO Lisa Su stated that by 2030, the AI accelerator market is expected to reach $1.4 trillion, the global data center CPU market will reach $220 billion, and the global computing market will reach $2 trillion. Additionally, AMD officially launched its first rack-level AI system, Helios, with Su stating that Helios has begun full production and will soon start shipping.

7. OpenAI is expected to deploy AMD Helios on a large scale. The head of OpenAI infrastructure stated that the company began using AMD Helios GPU racks three months ago and plans to collaborate with AMD to develop the MI500 series AI chips and subsequent products.

# V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-----|----|-----------|-----| | Attention Needed | U.S. | Relevant Inflation and Employment Data | ⭐⭐⭐ |

July 24 (Friday)

1. ★★★★ Trump attends White House Correspondents' Association dinner, speech content may impact the market;
2. ★★★★ AMD holds Advancing AI conference, CEO Lisa Su delivers a speech discussing AI agents, model optimization, etc.

Important Event Forecast

• New U.S. Tariffs Take Effect: Implemented today, watch for reactions from trade partners and supply chain impacts.
• Middle East Geopolitical Developments: Continue to track U.S.-Iran and Houthi dynamics affecting oil prices.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe that the implementation of new U.S. tariffs and the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East are jointly pushing up oil prices and inflation expectations, with the market factoring in about a 36% probability of a Fed rate hike next week, while rising short-term interest rates suppress risk assets. Intel's earnings exceeding expectations validate AI demand, but Tesla and Google's earnings reports highlight the return verification pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. Overall strategy suggests focusing on beneficiary sectors such as energy and defense, while remaining cautious on high capital expenditure tech stocks, waiting for clear signals from macro and earnings perspectives.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.