Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Rocket Lab plans to acquire Iridium Communications; strong rebound in optical communication, storage, and space sectors; Nike and Constellation Brands to announce earnings after hours

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Supreme Court Upholds Federal Reserve Independence, Trump Vows to Continue Push

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to block Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook. This move is seen as a significant check on the president's attack on the independence of the world's most important central bank. The court had previously limited the president's emergency tariff powers, further reinforcing the central bank's policy autonomy. However, the same ruling also clears the way for Trump to fire Federal Trade Commission (FTC) members without just cause, indicating an expansion of White House control over certain independent regulatory agencies.

Trump later stated that the Supreme Court returned the case to a lower court based solely on procedural grounds and that he would take immediate action to ensure that "wrongdoers" no longer participate in major decisions. The market interpreted this case as reducing the risk of abrupt changes in Federal Reserve policy in the short term, benefiting long-term interest rate stability, but it also highlights the ongoing struggle over the boundaries of executive and judicial power.

International Commodities

Trump Announces U.S.-Iran Talks in Doha Today, Iran Emphasizes Focus on Implementing Memorandum of Understanding

U.S. President Trump stated on June 29 that talks between the U.S. and Iran would take place today (June 30) in Doha, Qatar, and that U.S. representatives "may have already departed or are preparing to depart." Trump described the talks as "potentially important or potentially unimportant," but emphasized that the U.S. has "already won militarily" and that "oil prices have already dropped," with Iran agreeing not to possess nuclear weapons. The White House revealed that special envoy Wietekow and Jared Kushner would participate.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson made it clear that Iran would not hold any level of negotiations with the U.S. in the coming days, and that the delegation sent to Doha this week was a technical team aimed at following up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding (including oil export licenses and the release of frozen assets), rather than initiating final agreement negotiations. Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military is prepared for independent military action against Iran but will not interfere with Trump's actions at this time.

Market Impact: Expectations of geopolitical easing are rising, benefiting risk assets in the short term, while oil prices are under pressure; if negotiations make substantial progress, it will further weaken safe-haven demand.

Macroeconomic Policy

SpaceX and Google Drive Record IPOs in U.S. Stocks in First Half of the Year, Bank of America Warns of Possible Three-Wave Correction in S&P

Bloomberg data shows that as of June 26, the total amount of U.S. IPOs and stock issuances reached $251 billion, surpassing the record set in the first half of 2021. The record issuance activities by SpaceX and Google are the main driving forces, as AI hyperscalers continue to seek funding for data centers and other infrastructure.

Bank of America’s head of technology research, Paul Ciana, warned that the S&P 500 has risen nearly 17% since its March low, but signs of fatigue have emerged since the June 2 peak, with a potential correction to 6850 points (about a 7.6% drop from current levels). He advised investors to hedge against further rebounds and adopt a defensive stance from July to September. The rebound after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has shown volatility, with prices "overstretched" and momentum deteriorating.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: $3972/ounce, -1.05%
• Spot Silver: $56.9/ounce, -2.4%
• WTI Crude Oil: $70.22/barrel, -0.7%
• Brent Crude Oil: $73.52/barrel, -0.5%
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 101.25, -0.11%

Driving Factors Analysis: The initiation of U.S.-Iran talks and Trump's statement that "oil prices have dropped" reinforced expectations of a temporary easing of geopolitical risks, directly suppressing energy prices. Gold and silver slightly retreated in an environment of rising risk appetite but remain within a high range, indicating ongoing support from long-term inflation and central bank gold purchasing demand. The U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, reflecting the market's positive interpretation of the maintenance of Federal Reserve independence, which reduces short-term interest rate hike expectations. Overall, the inter-asset linkage logic is clear: geopolitical easing → risk assets rise → U.S. dollar and safe-haven commodities under pressure. If negotiations progress smoothly in the short term, there may be further downward space for oil prices, but any signals of negotiation breakdown will quickly reverse this logic.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: $59,846, +0.31%
• ETH: $1,594, +1.33%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.16 trillion, +0.8%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24 hours approximately $297 million, with short positions liquidated at $158 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price approximately $59,815, with a large concentration of short liquidation points in the range of $60,800--$61,600; if it stabilizes above $60,000 and continues to rise, it may trigger concentrated short covering, pushing prices up rapidly. The main concentration of long liquidations is at $58,500--$59,300, with the scale of short liquidations significantly larger than that of long liquidations, indicating that the short-term market is more focused on the risk of triggering short covering after a breakout.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Approximately $65 million net inflow into BTC spot ETF yesterday

Driving Factors Analysis: Under the strong influence of the U.S. tech and space sectors, the cryptocurrency market shows signs of warming risk appetite, with BTC and ETH rebounding in sync. Although ETF fund flows remain low, they have stabilized after a significant outflow over several days, indicating a recovery in institutional sentiment. Leverage liquidation data is moderate, suggesting that current leverage levels are not high, with liquidations mainly coming from long profit-taking rather than systemic short squeezes. Technically, BTC found support around $60,000, while ETH's relative strength reflects market preference for Ethereum's ecosystem and institutional adoption expectations. On a macro level, the maintenance of Federal Reserve independence reduces policy uncertainty, combined with signals of U.S.-Iran easing, creating a favorable short-term environment. However, caution is warranted regarding warnings from institutions like BofA about potential corrections in U.S. stocks; if risk assets overall correct, cryptocurrencies may face synchronized pressure. The overall trend is bullish, but there is significant differentiation, with ETH performing better under the support of AI and institutional narratives.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Approximately 52,300 points (+0.59%)
• S&P 500: Approximately 7,430 points (+1.18%)
• Nasdaq: Significantly up (+2.07%)

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $194.63 (+1.5%)
• AAPL: $281.74 (-0.7%)
• MSFT: $368.57 (-1.2%)
• GOOGL: $353.50 (+4.8%)
• AMZN: $240.12 (+3.2%)
• META: $562.60 (+2.24%)
• TSLA: $411.84 (+8.46%)
• MU: $1,145.28 (+1.14%)
• SPCX: $158.52 (+3.5%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: The tech giants overall followed the strong rebound of the Nasdaq, but there was significant internal differentiation. Tesla and Google led the gains, with the former benefiting from a broad recovery in market risk appetite, while the latter may have been catalyzed by AI search and cloud business developments. Nvidia's gains were relatively moderate, reflecting ongoing concerns about previous high valuation pressures and HBM supply issues. Amazon and Meta performed steadily, indicating a robust recovery in advertising and e-commerce but lacking extraordinary catalysts. The core differentiation lies in the funding preference for AI infrastructure and commercial space themes (related to SpaceX), while purely consumer or traditional tech stocks lag behind. The issuance frenzy of SpaceX and Google mentioned in the Futu Daily Report further reinforces the market's long-term allocation willingness towards AI and the space economy, avoiding a "one-size-fits-all" interpretation.

Overview of Cryptocurrency Stock Derivatives

• 24H Total Transaction Volume: $18.457 billion (+428.80%)
• Total Open Interest (OI): $5.649 billion (+2.39%)
• 24H Total Liquidation: $24.427 million
• Transaction Volume Ratio: 9.89%
• Open Interest Ratio: 5.50%
• Liquidation Ratio: 8.00%

Open Interest Heatmap

• SPCX Open Interest: $746 million.
• MU Open Interest: $597 million.
• SKHX Open Interest: $530 million.
• SNDK Open Interest: $280 million.
• NVDA Open Interest: $241 million.
• INTC Open Interest: $145 million.
• MRVL Open Interest: $134 million.
• CRCL Open Interest: $106 million.
• MSFT Open Interest: $105 million.
• GOOGL Open Interest: $101 million.

The trading volume in the stock derivatives market surged by 428.80% to $18.457 billion, with total open interest increasing by 2.39%, indicating a significant rise in market trading activity.

Open interest remains concentrated in SpaceX concepts, AI computing power, and semiconductor-related targets, with SPCX, MU, SKHX, SNDK, and NVDA occupying core positions in the market, as funds continue to focus on the AI industry chain.

Sector Movement Observation

Space Concept Sector Soared (Representative stocks IRDM up over 25%, RKLB up nearly 16%)

• Representative stocks: Rocket Lab (RKLB) +16%, Iridium (IRDM) +25%
• Driving Factors: Rocket Lab announced it would acquire Iridium Communications for cash and stock, with a total transaction value of approximately $8 billion, marking one of the largest consolidations in the commercial space sector in recent years. The market is optimistic about the synergistic effects of satellite communication and launch capabilities, combined with an overall recovery in risk appetite.

Storage Concept Sector Increased (Representative stock WDC up over 11%)

• Representative stocks: Western Digital (WDC) +11%, Seagate +8%
• Driving Factors: Steady expectations for semiconductor and AI data center storage demand, coupled with a general rebound in U.S. stocks.

Optical Communication Sector Rose Together (Representative stock ALAB up over 16%)

• Representative stocks: Astera Labs (ALAB) +16%, Corning +16%
• Driving Factors: Continued capital expenditure in AI infrastructure, with strong demand for data center optical modules and connections.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Announces Acquisition of Iridium Communications

Event Overview: Rocket Lab announced on Monday that it would acquire satellite communication service provider Iridium Communications for cash and stock, with a total transaction value of approximately $8 billion. This is one of the largest consolidation actions in the commercial space sector in recent years. Under the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash per share plus Rocket Lab stock.

Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe that this acquisition will significantly enhance Rocket Lab's integrated capabilities in satellite communication and launch, expanding its competitiveness in the low Earth orbit satellite constellation market. Combined with the space economic boom driven by leading players like SpaceX, the market remains optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of commercial space, but also pays attention to integration execution risks and valuation digestion pressures.

Investment Insight: Short-term event-driven dynamics are evident, while long-term prospects for the aerospace industry chain integration and government/commercial order realization are positive. It is recommended to monitor subsequent execution progress and order realization.

2. Tesla (TSLA) - Excess Returns Amid Rising Risk Appetite

Event Overview: Against the macro backdrop of U.S.-Iran geopolitical easing and the maintenance of Federal Reserve independence, Tesla's stock price surged over 8%, leading gains among tech giants. There were no significant negative or positive company-specific developments; the increase mainly stemmed from a recovery in overall risk asset sentiment.

Market Interpretation: Institutional views are divided; some believe Tesla, as a high-beta tech growth stock, has the greatest elasticity when risk appetite warms; others point out that its valuation remains high and relies on long-term narratives such as Robotaxi, energy, or AI robots to materialize. Short-term fund flows indicate a preference for growth styles.

Investment Insight: Suitable for investors with a higher risk appetite to participate in thematic rebounds, but caution is advised regarding potential correction risks, and attention should be paid to the company's product and policy catalysts in the second half of the year.

3. Alphabet (GOOGL) - AI Search and Cloud Business Dual Drivers

Event Overview: Google's stock price rose nearly 5%, performing prominently among tech giants. The market associates this with ongoing investments in AI infrastructure and expectations for AI upgrades in its search business.

Market Interpretation: Institutions are optimistic about Google's long-term competitiveness driven by AI search (Gemini) and cloud services (Google Cloud), especially amid the capital expenditure wave from AI hyperscalers, with high certainty for cloud business growth. Some views suggest that its dual attributes of "infrastructure + application" relative to Nvidia make it more defensively and offensively balanced in the current environment.

Investment Insight: One of the core targets in the AI theme, suitable for medium to long-term allocation, with short-term attention on recovery data for search advertising and cloud revenue growth.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Strategy announced the launch of a digital credit capital framework and authorized a $2 billion stock buyback plan to strengthen its capital structure and support its Bitcoin monetization strategy.

2. Tether partnered with cryptocurrency lending platform Ledn to launch a fully Tether Gold (XAUT)-backed interest-free loan product, expanding the scenario of combining physical assets with stablecoins.

3. BlackRock's investment and portfolio management platform Aladdin will add the Ethena stablecoin USDe to its list of supported crypto assets and provide a $100 million liquidity tool through Securitize to serve BlackRock's BUIDL fund. The new arrangement allows qualified BUIDL clients to exchange BUIDL for stablecoins such as USDC and USDtb off-chain and convert back to BUIDL, enhancing interoperability between on-chain U.S. Treasury funds and stablecoins.

4. GameStop committed last Friday to continue pursuing its approximately $56 billion cash and stock acquisition offer for eBay, despite eBay's board previously rejecting the proposal. GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen proposed this acquisition in May, stating that the merged company would more effectively challenge Amazon and expressing intent to operate the new entity.

5. According to SemiAnalysis, the latest four economic data points from the U.S. are significantly affected by one-time factors: Q1 GDP was revised from 1.6% to 2.1% mainly due to downward revisions in imports, while real domestic demand growth was revised down to 1.7%. Personal income in May increased by 0.7%, with approximately $59.6 billion being one-time agricultural disaster subsidies; PCE inflation at 4.1% was almost entirely driven by energy, and oil prices have fallen about 40% from their April peak in June. Tariffs raised commodity inflation to about 4.8%, constituting a one-time price level shock rather than persistent inflation. Beyond the noise, AI-related capital expenditures have become a major substantive driver, contributing approximately 1.55 percentage points to GDP growth in Q1, about four times the contribution from household consumption.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|----------|----|---------------------------|------| | 10:00 ET | U.S. | JOLTS Job Openings (May) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 10:00 ET | U.S. | Consumer Confidence Index (June) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 09:00 ET | U.S. | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April) | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 09:45 ET | U.S. | Chicago PMI (June) | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

June 30 (Tuesday)

1. U.S. June Chicago PMI, U.S. May JOLTS job openings, and U.S. June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released;
2. Nike (NKE) and Constellation Brands (STZ) will release earnings after hours; ★★ (Nike's earnings report is an important barometer for consumer stocks)

July 1 (Wednesday)

1. U.S. June ADP Employment Numbers will be released;
2. U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released;
3. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will speak at the European Central Bank Forum; (Waller's speech is the biggest highlight of the week and may hint at policy direction for the second half of the year (rate hike/maintain/shift).

July 2 (Thursday)

1. U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Initial Jobless Claims from last week will be released, with market expectations for an increase of 113,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%; ★★★

July 3 (Friday)

1. U.S. stock markets will be closed for Independence Day holiday;

This week's core focus for U.S. stocks: A critical window for closing the first half and setting policy direction for the second half, with employment data and Waller's speech determining the short-term direction of the market. Key attention should be paid to whether employment data supports a shift in Federal Reserve policy and how earnings reports from consumer stocks like Nike guide the sector.

Institutional Views

Multiple investment banks believe that the Supreme Court's ruling to uphold the Federal Reserve's independence is a positive signal that helps reduce policy uncertainty and stabilize long-term interest rate expectations. Bank of America's technical team maintains a defensive stance, warning that the S&P 500 may experience a three-wave correction from July to September, recommending hedging or reducing risk exposure. In terms of geopolitical factors, the initiation of U.S.-Iran talks is seen as a short-term catalyst for risk appetite, with oil prices and safe-haven assets under pressure, but any negotiation reversals could quickly reverse sentiment. In the cryptocurrency market, institutions continue to monitor ETF fund flows and the dual narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold + payment"; despite significant outflows in early June, recent stabilization combined with capital actions from companies like MSTR indicates that the long-term adoption trend remains unchanged. The overall consensus is that the macro environment is marginally improving, but caution is warranted regarding technical correction risks, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation between growth and defense.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.