Changxin Technology's global DRAM market share reaches 9%, with the 15% "survival line" being key to entering the top tier

According to the latest report released by market research firm Counterpoint Research, Chinese memory chip giant Changxin Technology (CXMT) currently holds a 9% share of the global DRAM market (by bit shipments), and this figure is expected to rise to 11% by 2028 (with a revenue share of 9%). The report indicates that Changxin Technology is transitioning from an industry "challenger" to a "strategic player," with a long-term goal of achieving a bit shipment share of 20% and a revenue share of 15% by 2035.

However, the report emphasizes that to truly establish a foothold in the global memory market and join the ranks of the "big three DRAM manufacturers," Changxin Technology must cross the global market share threshold of 15% to 17% (about one-sixth). Historical experience shows that in 2008, Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers could not secure the massive funding needed for the research and development of the next generation of fabs after their market share fell below 15%, ultimately causing their market share to plummet to the edge of 3%. Therefore, the 15% share is seen as the core survival line for Changxin Technology to ensure sustainable development and self-sustaining capabilities in the medium to long term.

To cross this threshold, Changxin Technology is leveraging newly raised funds to accelerate capacity expansion, planning to double its capacity by 2030 and triple it by 2035. Although facing external challenges such as U.S. equipment export controls and global supply chain access, analysts believe these restrictions may instead act as catalysts, forcing Changxin Technology to accelerate independent innovation in cutting-edge technologies such as Vertical Channel Transistors (VCT) and Wafer-on-Wafer bonding, thereby narrowing the gap with industry leaders.