Market Maker Decoded: The bottom of BTC this round may not be far off, keep an eye on these signals

Podcast Source: Crypto Banter

Compiled & Edited by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Guest: Eric Krown, former NYSE Arca options market maker, now a full-time crypto trader, founder of the YouTube channel Krown's Crypto Cave

Host: Alessandro, Crypto Banter "Risk Takers" program

Original Title: The Exact Bitcoin Levels That Decide the Next Move | Krown

Broadcast Date: July 19, 2026

Disclosure: Krown publicly stated that he bought spot BTC just above $60,000, while operating paid trading courses and exchange affiliate links (ByBit, BloFin, etc.). This episode is purely technical analysis and does not involve specific project token promotions.

Key Points Summary

Eric Krown is a former NYSE Arca options market maker with over 15 years of trading experience, starting from learning equity options at the Pacific Stock Exchange as a teenager, later serving as an authorized market maker (MMAT) at NYSE Arca, and transitioning to full-time trading in the crypto market several years ago. This is his fourth appearance on Alessandro's "Risk Takers" program, a monthly series that has been tracking a core question in real-time: Where exactly is the macro bottom for Bitcoin?

The biggest information increment in this episode is that Krown has compiled a complete checklist of all the monthly signals that are currently converging. The 55 EMA recovery level is $63,735, the stochastic indicator crossover trigger level is $64,371, the bi-weekly MACD histogram 168-day cycle points to early August, and the LTI tool issued a strong buy signal in January after a price retracement of 22.64% (consistent with previous cycles of 20-22%). He clearly stated that if BTC closes above $63,735 on the monthly chart, he has an 85% confidence that the macro bottom is being formed. On the other hand, the fear and greed index has remained below 20 for two to three months, with extreme pessimism in market sentiment, yet the price has already made a significant reversal, a divergence that has historically occurred at every macro low.

Highlights of Insights

On the psychological trap of "waiting for 50,000"

"Everyone is shouting for 40,000 to 50,000, but if you divide BTC by the M2 money supply, it has actually already backtested the flash crash low of August 2024, $49,270. The number you want has already been given to you, adjusted for inflation."

On the monthly 55 EMA

"BTC took about half a year to recover after breaking below the 55 EMA in 2022, and once it recovers, the bull market officially begins. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before recovering. Now it just needs to close above $63,735 in July, and that will be a recovery."

On the 168-day cycle

"In 2018, from the MACD histogram low to the actual price low, it was 168 days. In 2022, it was also 168 days. This trend line has been triggered, and pushing forward 168 days lands exactly in early August, perfectly coinciding with the monthly close and stochastic indicator crossover time window."

On market sentiment

"The fear and greed index is at 28, having stayed below 20 for two to three months. The price has reversed from the low, yet sentiment is still in the basement. Looking back at 2015, 2019, and 2022, every macro low has followed this pattern."

On traditional market rotation

"The semiconductor index has risen over 300% from April 2025 to now, and I called the top in early July. Profits are flowing into healthcare biotechnology (IBB) and the industrial sector. But the SPY chart is not bearish; I see no macro top signals at least until Q4."

On gold and copper

"Gold peaked in January, right on the 10-year cycle, and is likely to trade sideways or decline in the coming years. Copper is different; it just broke out of a 20-year consolidation range, with a target price around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction."

The main text is as follows:

Chapter One: Adjusting BTC for Inflation with M2 Money Supply

Alessandro: Last month you said BTC would look good if it hovered around 60,000 until summer. Do you still think so?

Krown: Yes, and I now have about 85% confidence that the macro bottom is being confirmed at this month's close. Let me start with a perspective that I think has been severely overlooked. Many people are waiting for BTC to reach 40,000 to 50,000, with various influencers and retail investors calling for that range. But if you look at BTC divided by the M2 money supply, the situation is completely different. This chart uses money supply as the denominator, effectively normalizing for inflation.

The same situation occurred in 2022. Everyone was calling for 10,000 or 8,000, but if you normalize by M2, BTC actually fell to the equivalent of 10,000 in November that year. I said on my channel that if you were waiting for 10,000 to 11,000, it had already been reached when adjusted for money supply.

The current situation is no different. The number you want below 50,000, adjusted for M2, has already backtested the flash crash low of August 2024 at $49,270. The number you want has been given to you; you just haven't measured it with the correct ruler. Since 2020, the money supply has increased by 40% to 50%, yet we measure asset prices using the dollar as a constant, which is a cognitive bias in itself.

Alessandro: I have also used the BTC/M2 chart to illustrate that BTC is the only asset consistently making higher highs and higher lows relative to money supply. The S&P and gold are actually trending down against M2.

Krown: Exactly, the S&P only recently broke above its 1999 high, which also corresponds to a break against M2. Everything is related to money supply; nothing operates in a vacuum.

Chapter Two: Monthly 55 EMA, $63,735 is the First Confirmation Signal

Alessandro: Let's get into specific price levels. What is the current situation with the monthly 55 EMA you mentioned earlier?

Krown: Let's start with the simplest point. The 55 EMA (exponential moving average) on the monthly chart has historically been a key moving average for BTC to confirm macro lows. In 2022, BTC broke below it and spent about half a year below; once it recovers, it's a major signal that the bull market starts from there. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before recovering and then surged. Going back to 2015 and 2014, although historical data is limited, the 55 EMA also served as a bottoming point.

Current situation: If BTC closes above $63,735 this month, it will complete the recovery of the 55 EMA. We are currently near this price level. There are still 11 to 12 trading days left, and so far, everything is normal. This signal is very specific and easy to track. Even if you are the most die-hard bear, you have to admit this is at least a major low, and BTC is likely to rebound above 70,000.

For short-term confirmation, I still need to see BTC close above the high of $65,500. But on the monthly level, $63,735 is the first hard indicator.

Chapter Three: Triple Convergence of Monthly MACD, RSI, and Stochastic Indicator

Alessandro: What about the monthly MACD?

Krown: The monthly MACD is showing signs of weakening momentum; July is the first awesome momentum signal, the last one appeared in April. Historically, whenever the monthly MACD momentum starts to weaken, the low has either already occurred or is close enough that you might as well enter. This was the case in 2015, where the low was already in. In 2019, the reversal almost happened on that bar. In 2022, although there was an extreme event with the FTX collapse later, if you bought when the MACD signal appeared, you would only be a month early compared to the final low, and in the long run, you would be very satisfied.

Regarding RSI, the monthly RSI is now at a similar level to the low in 2022, possibly even slightly lower, and below all previous macro lows in BTC's history. Multiple momentum oscillators are corroborating the same story at the same position.

Now looking at the monthly stochastic indicator. It has reached the oversold zone below 20, which is a low signal. The next confirmation is to wait for it to cross upwards. Every time this crossover occurs, the low has already been in. I have been tracking data since 2012, and there has not been a single exception.

Here is a key number: I backtracked, and if BTC closes at $64,371 or above, it will force the stochastic indicator to cross upwards. So you see two trigger levels in a very narrow range: $63,735 recovers the 55 EMA, and $64,371 triggers the stochastic indicator crossover. If both hit simultaneously, along with the MACD momentum signal and RSI low, even the biggest bears will have to start considering whether this is the macro bottom.

Chapter Four: 168-Day Cycle Pointing to Early August

Alessandro: What about the bi-weekly MACD histogram trend line you mentioned earlier?

Krown: This is one of the tools I used to publicly call the macro low in 2022. Looking at the MACD histogram on the bi-weekly timeframe, you can draw a downward trend line starting from 2018; every time the histogram touches this line, a low is formed. Note that the low of the MACD histogram does not equal the price low; there is a time lag between the two.

But this time lag is very regular. In 2018: from the MACD histogram low to the actual price macro low, it was 168 days. In 2022: also 168 days. Precise to the day.

This time, the trend line has been triggered. Pushing forward 168 days lands you in early August. This perfectly coincides with the recovery of the monthly 55 EMA and the stochastic indicator crossover time window. Everything is converging at the same time.

Alessandro: So the signals you are seeing are not isolated; they are synchronously pointing to the same conclusion?

Krown: Yes, that’s why I say I have 85% confidence. Any single indicator could be wrong, but when five or six independent signals trigger simultaneously within the same week, the odds are completely in your favor. It’s like the odds in the World Cup. The French team is the biggest favorite, with a 15% chance rising to 40%, but the combined probability of all other teams is still higher than France. You can have a strong reason to bet on France winning, but you are likely to be wrong.

Alessandro: Trading is the same; you never have 100% certainty.

Krown: Never. But when you have a probabilistic advantage, you just need to stand on the side of the higher probability. You don’t need to be right every time; in a market like BTC, you just need to be right once big.

Chapter Five: LTI Tool and the 22% Rule

Alessandro: What about your LTI (Long-Term Investor) tool? Last time you mentioned it issued a buy signal.

Krown: LTI is a long-term tool that integrates volatility, momentum, dates, and other fundamental factors. Every time it issues a strong buy signal, the price usually has about 20% of downside space to the final low. Let me quickly go through the history.

In December 2014, the first strong buy signal appeared, and from the signal to the next closing low, it dropped 22.90%. In 2018, from the signal to the low, it was 20.61%. In June 2022, the signal appeared, and to the macro closing low, it was 20.65%. This time, the strong buy signal appeared in January 2026, and from the signal to the current closing low, it has dropped 22.64%. Four signals, with declines all between 20-23%, remarkably consistent.

My judgment on the macro low has one premise: the weekly trend must officially reverse. Right now, all high time frames are still in a downtrend, that’s a fact. But if the monthly closes above those numbers I mentioned earlier, I would move from 80% to 85% confidence. This does not mean BTC won’t rise to 75,000 before dropping back to 65,000, but the bottom structure is forming.

Chapter Six: Fear and Greed Index at 28, Classic Divergence Between Sentiment and Price

Alessandro: What do you think about market sentiment?

Krown: The fear and greed index is now at 28, having stayed below 20 for two to three months. From my YouTube analysis data, the number of people paying attention has decreased significantly. But those who remain are extremely pessimistic.

There is a classic divergence here: market sentiment is in the basement, yet the price has already completed a major reversal from the low. This configuration has appeared at every macro low in 2015, 2019, and 2022. People think they are going against the crowd, but in reality, they are the crowd. The crowd is bearish and very certain.

Even if the macro low hasn’t arrived yet, I don’t think there is much downside left. The worst-case scenario is a rebound that lasts for several months. $60,000 is my key level, coinciding with both psychological and technical levels. As long as BTC stays above this, I will treat it as a major low or even a macro low. A weekly or bi-weekly close below $60,000 would damage many structures.

Alessandro: So your invalidation is a bi-weekly or 10-day close below $60,000?

Krown: Yes, technically you need to see a bi-weekly or at least a 10-day close below $60,000 to start damaging these signals. Below that, many things would fall apart. But right now, I haven’t seen any signs of that.

Chapter Seven: Four-Year Cycle? Don’t Care, August is Close to October

Alessandro: What about the four-year cycle? Do you think this low will come before October?

Krown: To be honest, I no longer care about the four-year cycle narrative. Everyone reads on YouTube that "BTC bottoms a year after peaking, so the low must be in October." But how do you define a peak? If you use the BTC to M2 chart, the timing of the peak will be different. I see the low signal appearing, and I don’t care what day the history textbooks say.

Alessandro: But it’s only July; if the bottom is now or within a month or two, you have to admit the four-year cycle is right again.

Krown: That’s right, July is only three months away from October. It’s close enough that you can tip your hat and say, "Okay, it’s right again." I don’t need to be precise to October 16. In this market, you can make a lot of money without being perfect. But if BTC makes a new low in October, I would be very skeptical that it’s the real bottom, because that would mean the technicals have been more deeply damaged.

Chapter Eight: Semiconductor Peak, Funds Rotating to Healthcare and Copper

Alessandro: You mentioned traditional markets are rotating; can you elaborate?

Krown: Semiconductors are the biggest topic. NVIDIA, Intel, Micron, I called the top in early July. The semiconductor index has risen over 300% from April 2025 to now, and just holding the index has tripled. It’s completely understandable that people are taking profits.

But I’m not bearish on traditional markets. Rotation does not equal a bear market. Funds are flowing out of semiconductors and into healthcare biotechnology. IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) just completed a daily breakout, and I believe it will continue to rise until the end of the year. There may be a short-term buying opportunity around 180. The industrial sector is also strengthening.

The SPY chart is not bearish. It may pull back to around 7200 in the short term, but overall, I remain bullish until Q4. I don’t see any macro top signals at least until October or November. QQQ is weak in the short term, and there may be another flash crash in early August (which has happened in previous years), but after that, it will continue to rise.

Alessandro: The memory ETF has also given back half of its gains, but the index hasn’t been much affected. Apple is now the largest company again; that’s crazy.

Krown: Apple’s chart looks very good, with at least 3 to 6 months of upside potential. This is how the market operates: one sector peaks, and funds flow into the next sector, and the index continues to rise. This has been the pattern since 2008. People like to shout about macro tops, probably because they idolize those few people from "The Big Short." But honestly, it’s much easier to go long in these markets than to go short.

Alessandro: Finally, what about gold and copper?

Krown: I remain extremely bearish on gold and silver. Gold peaked in January, right on the 10-year cycle, and is likely to trade sideways or decline in the coming years, with potential rebounds to short. If you hold longs during this rebound, that’s a selling gift from God.

Copper is a completely different chart. It just broke out of a 20-year consolidation range that started in 2006, with a target price around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction, which requires a lot of copper. As long as copper prices stay above $560, it is objectively bullish. I don’t trade copper often, but purely from a technical perspective, the breakout is real, and there is upside potential.