Last Friday, chip stocks collectively plummeted again. Can a $950 billion order save them this week?

Last Friday evening, the U.S. stock market's memory chip sector was once again hit hard.

SK Hynix fell nearly 9%, SanDisk dropped nearly 11%, and Micron declined nearly 7%. Ironically, Intel, which had just released a financial report that greatly exceeded market expectations, also could not escape, with its stock price plummeting over 7%.

Financial reports that exceed expectations lead to declines. Meeting expectations results in declines. Falling short of expectations leads to even greater declines.

This bizarre situation of "declines regardless of good or bad" raises the question: Has the meme coin trend from the crypto world spread to the U.S. stock market? Stocks with a market value of trillions of dollars are moving in ways indistinguishable from meme coins that lack any fundamental support—any slight disturbance is enough to trigger a sell-off.

The narrative of "All in AI" can no longer be fully leveraged in today's market.

1. The Market Has Changed: From "Listening to Stories" to "Demanding Returns"

Over the past year, the logic behind the rise of AI chip stocks has been simple and crude: as long as your name is associated with AI, as long as you are buying GPUs, building data centers, or expanding HBM capacity—your stock price will rise. The greater the capital expenditure, the more excited the market; the more money burned, the higher the valuation.

But now, this logic has expired.

The market is shifting from "listening to stories" to "demanding numbers." Investors are no longer satisfied with qualitative descriptions like "we are heavily investing in AI"; they are starting to ask a sharper question: "After betting hundreds of billions of dollars, where are the returns?"

Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple—these AI giants are pouring hundreds of billions into data centers and chip industries, but can the incremental revenue from AI services cover the increasingly heavy depreciation, electricity, and leasing costs? This question is becoming the core variable determining the next phase of the AI narrative.

Recently, these giants will successively release their financial reports. Their answers to this question will likely determine whether chip stocks can emerge from the current quagmire or continue to seek lower ground.

2. $950 Billion Order: Is it Good News or "Already Priced In"?

Last weekend, there was indeed a significant piece of good news in the market.

SK Group and Samsung announced a $950 billion order in the U.S. from tech giants like Nvidia. This order involves memory chips, HBM, and other AI infrastructure components, marking the largest overseas cooperation agreement in the history of the South Korean semiconductor industry.

After the news broke, the market briefly hoped this could provide the momentum for a rebound in the continuously declining chip stocks. The market's performance on Monday after the opening will directly judge the "pricing effect" of this order.

However, if we calmly dissect this order, we find several issues:

First, the $950 billion is largely a letter of intent and a multi-year framework agreement, to be executed by 2030. It is not revenue that can be confirmed in the next quarter, nor is it cash already secured. Its direct uplifting effect on stock prices is limited.

Second, the issue of "AI memory being in short supply" has already been fully priced in by the market. This order merely formalizes a trend that everyone has already seen, without providing any "unexpected" new information.

The market often pays more attention to information that exceeds existing expectations.

--- It is "good news that the market is unaware of," rather than "re-promoting the consensus." When everyone already knows about the shortage of HBM and that cloud vendors are placing orders frantically, announcing a large order naturally has a significantly reduced marginal impact on stock prices.

Of course, considering the current extreme following sentiment towards chip stocks, this news is still likely to provide a direct boost to related stocks in the short term.

3. Alerts from the Options Market: VIX is Calm, but VXN has Soared to 28

If you observe the S&P 500 index with the naked eye, the market does not seem to be in panic. The VIX volatility index is currently around 18.57, relatively calm and far from the extreme fear zone.

However, if you shift your focus to the Nasdaq-specific volatility index VXN, the picture is completely different—VXN has risen to 28.39.

The gap between VIX and VXN is rapidly widening, which is an extremely important signal. It indicates that market panic is not uniform but highly concentrated in the tech sector. Investors have limited concerns about the overall market but are deeply anxious about chip stocks, AI concept stocks, and overvalued tech stocks.

In an environment where VXN is high, the short-term volatility of tech stocks may further amplify. Any financial report that falls short of expectations or any negative macro news could become the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

4. In Conclusion: A Powerful Tool in an Uncertain Environment

The current market landscape is highly fragmented. The long-term narrative for chip stocks (continuous growth in AI demand) and short-term pressures (valuation corrections, financial report scrutiny, soaring volatility) coexist, and it is uncertain which side will prevail in the near future.

In such an environment, the most dangerous approach is to "bet on a single direction and hold on." The wisest approach is to have the capability to operate in both upward and downward directions.

The BIT brokerage's options feature is now live. Whether you hold chip stocks and want to hedge against downside risk or seek trading opportunities amid volatility, you can utilize options tools:

• Hold the underlying stock + buy put options: Insure high-position holdings, strictly lock in losses.

• Buy call/put options in one direction: Bet on direction with a small premium, with maximum losses controllable.

• Buy in both directions simultaneously: Significant volatility is coming during earnings season.

In a market with unclear direction, those with options can navigate through bull and bear markets.

Risk Warning: Options are high-risk financial products, and their prices are affected by various factors including the underlying asset, volatility, and remaining term, which may lead to total premium loss. Please fully understand product risks and make prudent decisions based on your circumstances before investing.