Wang Si stated that the US-Iran conflict is still in the "mid-game," the US military is "looking for an exit," and Iran has put forward "six major conditions for reopening the Strait."

Author: Wall Street Journal

The highest military leader of the U.S. military is privately seeking to "find an exit" for the conflict with Iran.

According to Xinhua News Agency, CNN reported on the 7th, citing multiple informed sources, that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane recently expressed this position during meetings with senior White House officials, including Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and CIA Director Ratcliffe. On the 8th, Vance, in an interview with Fox News, characterized the U.S.-Iran conflict as being in the "mid-game," stating that the conflict "is clearly no longer in the opening stage."

On the same day, Secretary Zolghadr of Iran's Supreme National Security Council presented six conditions to the U.S. side—covering troop withdrawal, lifting all sanctions, and compensating for war losses—as prerequisites for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Surrounding this strategic waterway, which once carried one-fifth of the world's oil transport, the game has entered deeper waters: the U.S. side is facing a shortage of ammunition, and the effectiveness of airstrikes is limited; Iran holds control over the strait, negotiating temporary shipping routes with Oman while imposing layers of restrictions on full reopening.

Vance: "Not in the opening, already in the mid-game"

According to Xinhua News Agency, Vance stated on the 8th that the U.S.-Iran conflict "is not over yet, but it is clearly no longer in the opening stage; it has entered the mid-game stage," and the U.S. is comprehensively using diplomatic, economic, and military means.

He pointed out that the current focus of the U.S. is "to increase the amount of oil and gas exported through the Strait of Hormuz as much as possible," and is observing whether Iran is willing to make "necessary long-term changes" to establish better bilateral relations—"If Iran is unwilling, the U.S. will continue to apply pressure."

Vance also mentioned that the U.S. is trying to establish a navigation safety mechanism, including mine clearance, while "requiring Iran to make a commitment to ensure that it does not fire on merchant ships." Although Iran has consistently denied that both sides are in direct negotiations, Trump insists that negotiations have resumed. Secretary of State Rubio stated on the 4th that the U.S. is participating in dialogue between Oman and Iran.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Advocates "Finding an Exit"

CNN's report reveals deeper anxieties within the U.S. military. Kane's core judgment is that relying solely on airstrikes is unlikely to achieve all the operational goals announced by Trump, but further escalating the conflict has obvious negative effects on existing military options. "Kane is looking for an exit," said a source.

Reports indicate that Kane is not the only one who believes the Iran conflict is at a "crossroads." He has communicated with several presidential advisors who share the same view in hopes of unifying their stance before attending a meeting convened by Trump. Many insiders and analysts within the U.S. government believe that achieving a decisive victory would require large-scale ground troop involvement—which could result in significant U.S. casualties and contradict Trump's campaign promises. Kane candidly stated in a congressional hearing that "air power operations have their limitations." Public analysis suggests that Trump's continuous threats to expand strikes on Iranian energy facilities are unlikely to force Iran to yield and will almost certainly provoke retaliatory strikes on U.S. allies' energy facilities in the region.

Ammunition shortages have shifted from a private concern to a public issue. Multiple sources pointed out that since the conflict began, the U.S. military has consumed nearly four-fifths of its "THAAD" missile inventory, about half of its "Patriot" interceptors, and nearly half of its "Tomahawk" cruise missiles. Trump initially denied the ammunition shortage on the 6th but later acknowledged that the supply of "certain types of ammunition" is "relatively tight." Kane has repeatedly expressed concerns to Trump about the inventory dropping to "dangerously low levels," and the ammunition crisis has made Trump increasingly frustrated regarding the Iran issue.

The U.S. Central Command has widely solicited "creative, unconventional" suggestions internally to break the deadlock, reflecting that the options for forcing Iran to reach an agreement are dwindling. Additionally, media reports cited by Niu Danqin indicate that the "USS Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier has been deployed in the Middle East for over 8 months, with more than 5,000 personnel facing supply shortages and low morale, prompting many military families to call for resupply and docking.

Iran's Six Conditions: Hardliners Set High Barriers

On August 8, according to Iran's state news agency IRNA, Zolghadr presented six conditions to the U.S. side:

• Never threaten Iran;
• End all aggression against Iran and its allies;
• Lift the maritime blockade and withdraw military forces from around Iran;
• Compensate Iran for all war losses;
• Lift all sanctions against Iran;
• Unconditionally unfreeze all Iranian frozen assets.

Zolghadr emphasized, "These are the demands of the Iranian people, who have been shouting in the squares and streets for 160 days. The Supreme National Security Council will never back down, whether in war or in negotiations."

According to The Wall Street Journal, the council is dominated by hardliners and reports directly to Supreme Leader Khamenei. The report noted that the aforementioned conditions are not the formal positions presented by Iran's negotiating representatives and are clearly unacceptable starting points for the U.S., but indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is setting high barriers for any agreement. Notably, Iranian diplomats have proposed more pragmatic demands in actual contacts with mediators—reportedly focusing on lifting the maritime blockade, restoring exemptions for oil export sanctions, and unfreezing tens of billions of dollars of Iranian funds.

On the 8th, a spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guard stated in official media, "The Strait of Hormuz is not just an economic waterway for us; it is a key component of geopolitical and strategic power." According to Tasnim News Agency, the Revolutionary Guard stated that reopening the strait is unrelated to Iran-Oman negotiations and "depends on whether the U.S. fully accepts Iran's conditions and stops interfering in regional negotiations."

Temporary Shipping Route "Close to Agreement," Full Reopening Still Distant

As full reopening remains a distant prospect, technical negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding temporary shipping arrangements have made some progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated on the 8th, "Given the technical complexities, we are determining a temporary route, and I believe we are very close to reaching an agreement."

However, Zarif immediately clarified, "This does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. The reopening of the strait also depends on other conditions, including compensation for the U.S. violating the memorandum of understanding."—The ceasefire memorandum signed by Trump and Iran in June sought to open the strait and pave the way for in-depth negotiations but subsequently broke down due to Iran's continued attacks on passing vessels.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the draft agreement between Iran and Oman proposes to establish new shipping lanes in the strait: the inbound lane closer to Iran and the outbound lane closer to Oman, with Iran exercising regulatory authority over inbound vessels. Iran also insists on prohibiting U.S. Navy ships from passing through the strait in any agreement, aiming to weaken the U.S.'s decades-long military presence in the Persian Gulf. U.S. officials have indicated to mediators that they will not accept Iran imposing restrictions on strait traffic or charging tolls.

The situation continues to deteriorate. The UAE's national oil company ADNOC reported that three ships have been attacked by missiles or drones in the past week, bringing the total to 15 ships hit since the outbreak of war. The UAE attributed the latest attack on the 8th to the Revolutionary Guard.

Last weekend, Trump halted a new round of military strikes aimed at breaking the deadlock, citing "progress in negotiations." Iranian President Pezeshkian also stated, "Now may be the right time to advance negotiations." However, according to mediators, negotiations have recently stalled due to Iran's demands for economic relief and the U.S.'s insistence on freedom of navigation. Zolghadr's hardline statements and the ongoing attacks on vessels have deepened mediators' concerns—hardliners are delaying the approval of the agreement.