Iran stated that "there are currently no negotiations between Iran and the U.S.," while Trump expressed that "he is handling it discreetly."

Author: Long Yue

There is a clear divergence in the statements from both sides regarding the current negotiation status, and the prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain.

According to CCTV News on August 10, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview on the 9th that the U.S. is currently "handling the Iran issue quietly." Meanwhile, Xinhua News Agency reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif explicitly denied any direct negotiations between the two sides, stating that "there are currently no negotiations between Iran and the U.S." and that "information exchange is conducted through intermediaries."

The two countries' descriptions of the negotiation status are completely opposite. Both sides are unwilling to publicly acknowledge a breakdown in negotiations, but neither can claim that negotiations are progressing.

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas transportation volume. Since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28 of this year, this strategic waterway has been largely closed, leading to significant fluctuations in oil prices. Last week, Brent crude oil ultimately closed above $83 per barrel, with the market continuing to bet on progress in negotiations.

Trump: Economic Pressure is a Bargaining Chip, Not Urgent for Military Escalation

In the interview, Trump stated, "We are just having a 'half-negotiation' with them. We are just watching the situation in Iran; they are facing severe inflation and are short of funds." He described Iran's current economic situation as "very bad," stating that "they don't even have money to pay for military expenses." He indicated that the U.S. maritime blockade has further exacerbated Iran's economic crisis.

Trump characterized the current U.S.-Iran situation as "like a game of chess," and stated that "things will always be resolved." He hinted that he prefers to increase economic pressure rather than to launch large-scale military operations.

This statement is consistent with Trump's previous threats of large-scale airstrikes against Iran, which he later called off. According to Bloomberg, last weekend Trump once again halted a new military strike plan, citing "progress in negotiations."

Iran: The U.S. Violates the Memorandum, Resumption of Talks is Out of the Question

According to Xinhua News Agency, Zarif clearly explained the direct reason for Iran's refusal to resume talks: "Before the U.S. stops violating the memorandum of understanding and remedies the relevant breaches, Iran believes that there is no possibility of restarting negotiations."

In June of this year, Trump signed a ceasefire memorandum with Iran aimed at opening the Strait and paving the way for in-depth negotiations. However, the U.S. claimed that the agreement subsequently broke down due to Iran's continued attacks on passing vessels. Iran, on the other hand, blamed the U.S. for breaching the agreement.

Zarif also stated that the mediators are still working to find ways to reopen negotiations, "some intermediary countries are working hard to rebuild the negotiation foundation."

Iran Sets Tough Conditions, Hardliners Establish High Barriers

On August 8, according to Iran's state news agency IRNA, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Zolghadr, laid out six conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz:

1. Never threaten Iran;
2. End all aggression against Iran and its allies;
3. Lift the maritime blockade and withdraw military forces from around Iran;
4. Compensate Iran for all war losses;
5. Lift all sanctions against Iran;
6. Unconditionally unfreeze all of Iran's frozen assets.

Zolghadr emphasized: "These are the demands of the Iranian people, who have been shouting in the squares and streets for 160 days. The Supreme National Security Council will never back down, whether in war or negotiations."

According to The Wall Street Journal, the council is dominated by hardliners and reports directly to Supreme Leader Khamenei. The report noted that these conditions are not the formal position put forth by Iran's negotiating representatives and are clearly unacceptable starting points for the U.S., but indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is setting high barriers for any agreement. Notably, Iranian diplomats have proposed more pragmatic demands in actual contacts with mediators—reportedly focusing on lifting the maritime blockade, restoring exemptions from oil export sanctions, and unfreezing billions of dollars of Iranian funds.

Temporary Shipping Route "Close to Agreement," But Not Related to the U.S.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Zarif stated that negotiations between Iran and Oman to establish a new shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz are "progressing well and have entered the final stage," adding, "I believe we are very close to reaching an agreement."

However, he immediately drew a clear line: "Adjusting maritime routes is a technical and legal issue and does not mean reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Even if an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait depends on whether other conditions are met, including compensation for the U.S. violating the memorandum."

The draft agreement between Iran and Oman proposes establishing a new shipping route in the Strait: the inbound route will be closer to the Iranian side, and the outbound route will be closer to the Omani side, with Iran exercising regulatory authority over inbound vessels. Iran also insists on prohibiting U.S. Navy vessels from passing through the Strait in any agreement. U.S. officials have indicated to mediators that they will not accept Iranian restrictions on Strait traffic or tolls.

Oman has stated that negotiations with Iran are progressing in an "active and constructive atmosphere" and has called on all parties to suspend actions in the Strait to allow space for diplomatic efforts.

Situation Continues to Deteriorate, Internal Pressure on U.S. Military Emerges

According to Bloomberg, the Houthis claimed on the 9th that they attacked the Saudi Aramco refinery located in Jizan. Saudi authorities previously reported a fire at the facility, but the fire was quickly extinguished, with no casualties. This is at least the second attack on the refinery in the past month.

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. Vice President Pence characterized the U.S.-Iran conflict on the 8th as a "mid-game," stating that the conflict "is clearly no longer in the opening phase," and that the U.S. is employing a combination of diplomatic, economic, and military means. He stated that the key issue is whether Iran is willing to make "necessary long-term changes"—"If Iran is unwilling, the U.S. will continue to apply pressure."

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley recently expressed the position of "seeking an exit" for the Iran conflict during meetings with Pence, Secretary of State Rubio, and other senior White House officials, believing that relying solely on airstrikes is unlikely to achieve all military objectives. CNN also reported that since the conflict began, the U.S. military has consumed nearly four-fifths of its "THAAD" missile defense system inventory, about half of its "Patriot" interceptors, and nearly half of its "Tomahawk" cruise missiles.

According to Bloomberg, any agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz will require the approval of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. Khamenei has not made a public appearance since the outbreak of the war but stated on social media on the 9th that he met with President Raisi, and the two discussed war and economic issues.