Goldman Sachs: The Federal Reserve's decision to hold steady in July was absolutely correct, and it should remain open before September

Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Kaplan stated that the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates in July was "absolutely" correct and urged policymakers to keep an open mind before September, citing the complex factors influencing inflation, and that rigid forward guidance could be counterproductive.

Kaplan said, "If I see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to stay put, but I want to make full use of every moment before September to make judgments, avoiding rigidity or preconceived notions." Kaplan believes that the current forces at play include: inflationary pressures from AI development, tariffs, labor constraints, and soaring oil prices; meanwhile, the application of AI works in the opposite direction, accelerating the trend of declining inflation.

He stated that Waller should use his speech at this month's Jackson Hole symposium to briefly explain the reasons for the Federal Reserve's inaction in July, rather than delivering a purely "philosophical" speech. Kaplan expressed that his concerns about long-term U.S. Treasury yields are greater than his concerns about the federal funds rate itself.

He indicated that the rise in long-term Treasury yields globally reflects a structural supply-demand imbalance driven by persistent large fiscal deficits, rather than Federal Reserve policy.