Analysis: The "crack spread" in the energy market has reached a record expansion, and Bitcoin may face new pressures

According to CoinDesk, as crude oil prices retreat, refined oil prices continue to rise, with the "crack spread" between U.S. diesel and crude oil reaching $102.2 per barrel, a record high.

Due to disruptions in global energy supply from the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, diesel supply is tightening, and with the current agricultural harvest season, the demand for fuel for agricultural equipment such as tractors is strong, further pushing up diesel prices, which may transmit inflation through food, transportation, and heating costs.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices have broken through the downward trend line formed since the peak in April, indicating that the four-month downward trend may be coming to an end. If oil prices continue to rise, market inflation expectations may heat up again. The combination of energy prices and inflation risks, along with concerns about government debt, is driving up U.S. Treasury yields and the yields of other developed economy bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding risk assets like Bitcoin, which may limit further upside for BTC.

However, the weakening dollar still provides some support for Bitcoin. The dollar index fell to 99.29 on Monday, a two-and-a-half-month low, and broke below the previous upward trend line. Currently, Bitcoin is being influenced by multiple factors including oil prices, bond yields, and dollar trends, with the macro environment showing clear divergence.