"The Fed's Mouthpiece": How Waller Explains Inflation Determines the Path He Will Take

According to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, known as the "Fed's megaphone," in his latest article, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will face a core issue during his first major speech this week in Jackson Hole: whether the persistently high inflation in the United States is caused by one-time shocks such as tariffs and wars, or if the economy itself is still overheating.

This judgment will directly determine the direction of interest rates and is currently the biggest divergence within the Federal Reserve. In the July meeting, three officials supported a rate hike, while other officials indicated the possibility of further tightening policies, but Walsh has not made a clear statement. Since taking office, he has deliberately reduced policy guidance, and now both the market and his Federal Reserve colleagues are waiting for him to systematically explain his judgment for the first time.

The key to Walsh's term ultimately depends on how he explains why the previous policies failed to bring inflation back to 2%. If the policies of lowering interest rates and supporting employment over the past two years were fundamentally wrong because the labor market is actually stronger than the Federal Reserve judged, then Walsh needs to push for a reversal of interest rate cuts. However, this would conflict with the previous demands from Trump and Bessenet for further rate cuts.