Bitget CFD Chief Analyst: The real risk of PPI is not the increase, but the restart of cost transmission

This week's upcoming release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has become a key point for judging whether inflation is re-accelerating. Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in a live broadcast that, against the backdrop of 162,000 new non-farm jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, the demand side in the U.S. remains resilient. If core PPI and service prices continue to stay high, companies may pass costs onto consumers, driving up subsequent CPI and prompting the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's policy path of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period."

Lewis Huang further analyzed two scenarios: if PPI exceeds expectations but CPI remains moderate, it indicates that companies lack pricing power and can only compress profit margins to absorb costs; if both PPI and CPI exceed expectations, it signifies that the inflation transmission chain has reopened, potentially serving as a catalyst for a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. From a trading perspective, if PPI exceeds expectations and drives the dollar up, gold and high-valuation tech indices like the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure; conversely, if PPI falls short of expectations and the dollar retreats, it would support a rebound in gold and growth stock indices.

Lewis Huang reminded traders that they should not only focus on the first wave of market movements following the data release but also observe whether PPI is confirmed by CPI, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields. If the rise in PPI is merely a short-term cost shock, the market impact will be limited; if costs continue to be transmitted to consumers, the market narrative may shift back to "recurring inflation and the continuation of high interest rates."