Former New York Federal Reserve President Dudley: The reasons for raising interest rates are sufficient, and it may initiate a series of tightening measures

Former New York Fed President Dudley stated that the reasons for the Federal Reserve's current tightening of monetary policy are quite sufficient, and the interest rate hike in September may not be a "one-time action," but rather the beginning of a series of continuous rate increases. Dudley pointed out that the U.S. inflation rate remains persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the labor market remains relatively stable, and the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, further dispelling market concerns about a cooling of inflation.

In his view, the Federal Reserve is currently clearly deviating from its dual mandate goal regarding price stability, and there are still further upward risks for inflation in the short term. Dudley expects that the Federal Reserve may provide a median expectation of two cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points each for 2026 in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to be released in September. He also noted that over the past few decades, the probability of the Fed raising rates again after a single hike has been as high as 85% to 90%, so the market should not view this round of actions as "a mere taste."

Additionally, Dudley believes that if Waller decisively raises rates, it would also help demonstrate his determination to curb inflation and the Fed's policy independence. He warned that Waller should not "outsource" monetary policy to the financial markets, and the future path of interest rates should be determined by the Fed based on economic data and its own policy judgments, rather than catering to market expectations.