Prediction market platform Kalshi releases trader composition study

The prediction market platform Kalshi's Kalshi Research released a report titled "Who Trades Prediction Markets?", with a subtitle focusing on community income, background, and probability reasoning, marked for publication in October 2026. The report studies the composition of prediction market traders, with data sourced from administrative records and surveys, and compares it to a general population sample.

The administrative data covers the residential ZIP codes of each direct trader on Kalshi since January 2026, and aligns with the median household income from the American Community Survey. The survey was distributed in September 2026 to the highest profit and loss traders across various market categories, excluding sports and special categories, targeting 2,360 accounts, with 325 completed responses, resulting in a response rate of 13.8%.

The report states that the median income reflected by traders' residential locations is close to the national level, with a modal range crossing $80,734, and only 6.3% residing in ZIP codes with median incomes above $150,000. Among the highest profit and loss traders, 82% have never worked full-time in investment banks, hedge funds, private equity, or proprietary trading firms, 91% are not full-time traders, and 65% claim to have learned about markets and probabilities primarily or entirely on their own. In comparison to 1,005 American adults, this group scored an average of 2.42/4 on the Berlin Mathematical Test, while the public scored 0.62, with a proportion of 93% resisting the gambler's fallacy, compared to 57% in the public.