Morning Report | The Q3 earnings season for U.S. stocks has begun, with the technology sector expected to see a profit growth of 43.3%; Moonshot executives plan to settle shareholder disputes before the IPO in Hong Kong
October 12 Market Important Events OverviewCompiled by: ChainCatcher
What important events have occurred in the past 24 hours?
QCP Group: BTC Holds Steady at $80,000 Support, $87,000 Resistance Awaits Breakthrough
According to ChainCatcher, in a market report by QCP Group, BTC has shown relative stability after experiencing the largest single-day liquidation event last October, despite market concerns over the U.S. government's transfer of a large amount of BTC and the Ledger hacking incident, with prices remaining in a range-bound fluctuation. BTC has attempted to break through $87,000 multiple times without success, but the support at $80,000 remains solid. In the options market, implied volatility remains high, with put option premiums narrowing, indicating that the market is generally leaning towards waiting for a breakout rather than defensive positioning; if BTC effectively breaks through $87,000, the next target may point to $94,000. Notably, there is a large-scale bullish position in a 90,000/95,000/100,000 dollar call butterfly option expiring on October 30, which is the largest concentration of positions for the current month. This week, the macro environment will face a critical test, with U.S. CPI and PPI data being released, and Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will speak at the IMF-World Bank annual meeting. The market is currently pricing in about a 17% probability of an interest rate hike in October, and the aforementioned data and policy signals may become important triggers for BTC's directional choice.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin Needs CPI Catalyst to Return to $84,500, Short-term Focus on $81,300 Support
According to ChainCatcher, the latest report from Bitfinex Alpha indicates that whether Bitcoin can regain the $84,500 level this week will depend on whether U.S. CPI data changes market expectations for interest rates and yields, as well as whether spot market buying can follow through. This round of correction is similar to several adjustments during the previous recovery phase, and investors with holding costs within the original trading range have not shown significant selling. However, spot buying remains a weak link in the current market, with Bitcoin ETF investors' average holding cost around $84,340, and the current price is below this level, leading some investors to potentially sell as the rebound approaches their cost level. Analysts believe that if this week's core CPI month-over-month increase is 0.2% or lower, it may reduce market expectations for interest rate hikes and push yields down, providing room for BTC to rise; if the core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. BTC may oscillate in the range of $81,300 to $84,500 in the short term. If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $84,500, while ETF fund flows are strong, the market may retest the $87,722 level from the beginning of the year; if it falls below $81,300 with continued capital outflows, it may further drop to around $77,400, the true market average level.
Federal Reserve's Rate Hike Expectations Impact Mortgage Bond Market
According to ChainCatcher, in the past three weeks, investors have withdrawn from U.S. mortgage bond funds at a historically rare pace, with the scale of outflows ranking among the seven most severe since early 2021. As interest rates soared, the mortgage-backed securities index recorded its second-worst monthly performance on record in September. Strategist Erica Adelberg stated that the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy may weaken banks' demand for MBS, and MBS supply is expected to decline before the end of the year.
Moonshot Executives Plan to Settle Shareholder Dispute Before Hong Kong IPO
According to ChainCatcher, citing sources from Reuters, executives of Chinese artificial intelligence company Moonshot are in negotiations to settle a legal dispute with a shareholder ahead of their planned IPO in Hong Kong. The shareholder is seeking compensation for alleged misconduct, and the related negotiations have not been previously reported; it is currently unclear whether a settlement is imminent. Recurrent.ai and some of its investors accused CEO Yang Zhilin and CTO Zhang Yutao of making false statements to Recurrent investors and profiting at the expense of Recurrent in a letter to Moonshot investors dated March 11, 2026. Company records show that the two co-founded Recurrent.ai in 2016 and established Moonshot in 2023, and they remain directors of Recurrent Holding Company; the dispute has been arbitrated in Hong Kong since 2024. The letter also stated that key model data servers had been transferred, other data had been deleted, and the two established Moonshot without board authorization. Reuters stated it could not independently verify the allegations. Sources indicated that Recurrent received 9.5% of the original shares when Moonshot was established and is now seeking compensation equivalent to 10.5% of the original shares; based on a $30 billion valuation during June financing, this portion could be worth over $700 million. Reuters reported in September that Moonshot had secretly submitted its IPO application in Hong Kong. A source stated that the dispute is not expected to jeopardize the listing, but if unresolved, it could lead to governance, equity, and disclosure issues. Yang Zhilin previously denied the allegations, and his lawyer stated that the case lacks legal and factual basis.
Alex Lazarow: Stripe, Mastercard, and Circle Acquire Three Stablecoin Companies in Two Years, Totaling Over $3 Billion
According to ChainCatcher, a report from Forbes states that venture capitalist Alex Lazarow wrote that over the past two years, Stripe, Mastercard, and Circle have each acquired U.S. stablecoin infrastructure companies Bridge, UK-based BVNK, and Singapore cross-border payment platform Tazapay, with a total transaction value exceeding $3 billion. These three companies were founded between 2020 and 2022 and raised approximately $200 million in total funding, indicating that stablecoin payment infrastructure is becoming a field of competition for traditional payment giants and crypto companies. Among them, Stripe announced in 2024 that it would acquire Bridge for slightly over $1 billion; Mastercard's acquisition of BVNK has a total transaction value of up to $1.8 billion, including $1.5 billion in base consideration and $300 million in contingent consideration; Circle agreed to acquire Tazapay for $400 million in stock, with the transaction expected to be completed in 2027. The growth in stablecoin adoption, the gradual clarification of regulatory frameworks, and the rising demand for cross-border real-time payments are the main factors driving mergers and acquisitions. Data shows that by 2025, the adjusted transaction volume of stablecoins is expected to grow by 91% year-on-year, reaching $10.9 trillion, close to Visa's $14.2 trillion; the scale of real-world payments has more than doubled, reaching approximately $390 billion. These transactions reflect that acquirers value not only stablecoin technology but also verified business scale, payment networks, and compliance qualifications. As stablecoin payment infrastructure matures, applications such as dollar accounts, stablecoin payment cards, and cross-border remittances are also emerging, and more local infrastructure companies like Bridge and BVNK may be acquired in various regions worldwide in the future.
Binance Research: U.S. Real Interest Rates Hit Highest Level Since 2008, Layer 2 Tokens Rise About 32%
According to ChainCatcher, in the latest weekly report from Binance Research, since August 31, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has risen by 47 basis points, of which 43 basis points came from an increase in real yields, while the inflation breakeven rate only rose by 4 basis points, with the 10-year real yield reaching as high as 2.95%, the highest since 2008. The report also noted that since the interest rate hike in September, BTC has risen by 9.3%, ETH by 2.7%, and Layer 2, RWA, and AI tokens have risen by approximately 32%, 29%, and 29%, respectively, while meme and payment tokens have lagged behind. Binance Research stated that the current high real interest rates still exert a suppressive effect on a wide range of risk assets, and future attention should focus on CPI, long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC ETF fund flows.
Bybit Launches U.S. Stock and ETF Trading, Supported by Alpaca's Brokerage Infrastructure
According to ChainCatcher, Bybit announced the launch of stock trading, allowing users to trade U.S. stocks and ETFs directly on the platform. Bybit claims to have over 80 million global users, and this service is supported by brokerage infrastructure provider Alpaca. Eligible Bybit users can invest in over 1,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, with some eligible securities supporting fractional shares, and various trading strategies can be used in both traditional and digital asset markets. Trading covers U.S. pre-market, regular, and after-hours sessions, available five days a week, 24 hours a day.
South Korea's Financial Services Commission: Promoting Token Securities Expansion to Bonds and Funds
According to ChainCatcher, South Korea's Financial Services Commission is promoting the expansion of the token securities market from fragmented investments in real estate and art to bonds and funds. The related amendments to the Electronic Securities Act and the Capital Markets Act have been legislatively announced from the 2nd of this month until the 11th of next month, with supporting regulations set to take effect on February 4 next year, detailing rules for issuance and circulation. The amendments clearly include traditional securities such as stocks, bonds, and funds in the scope of tokenization, initially prioritizing the launch of private currency funds, private bonds, and trust-based non-listed stock tokenization for institutional investors, while piloting public fragmented investment securities; public bonds and funds for ordinary investors will be expanded after market stabilization. Meanwhile, regulators plan to set an annual net purchase limit of 100 million Korean won for ordinary investors on over-the-counter trading platforms and allow non-financial institutions to directly manage investor accounts after meeting conditions such as having 4 billion Korean won in own capital.
U.S. Congressman Warren Davidson: The Future of Currency Will Determine the Direction of Western Civilization
ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin Magazine, U.S. Congressman Warren Davidson stated in an interview video released by Bitcoin Magazine that the future of currency is closely linked to the future of Western civilization. He pointed out that the U.S. is burdened with about $40 trillion in debt, and since 2020, the dollar has lost about 30% of its purchasing power. The rising risk of defaults and inflation is driving up interest rates, and those without physical assets will lose purchasing power. Davidson is the founder of the Sound Money Caucus. In the interview, Davidson also discussed the end of the debate vote on the Clarity Act and its threat to self-custody under Clause 305, as well as whether the bill will be reintroduced after the midterm elections, and topics such as open-source developer protection and the Trump family ethics clause. He also mentioned the American Reserve Modernization Act and the issue of the U.S. government holding Bitcoin, and responded to whether Bitcoin has become a partisan issue. Additionally, Davidson expressed views on central bank digital currencies, financial surveillance, and reforms to the Bank Secrecy Act, referring to stablecoins as "Hydra" style central bank digital currencies, and discussed the GENIUS Act. He called on Bitcoin supporters to defend freedom in the midterm elections and warned that the direction of the currency system's development will determine the trajectory of Western civilization.
Australia's ASIC Plans to Extend CFD Investor Protection to Crypto-Settled Derivatives
ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has proposed to expand the regulatory scope of Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to include derivatives settled using digital assets. ASIC aims to add contracts settled by transferring digital assets to its definition of CFDs, no longer limited to contracts settled in cash or offset transactions, provided these contracts meet other criteria for CFDs. If the proposal is approved, Australian traders using crypto-settled CFDs will receive the same protections as cash-settled CFD traders. ASIC has made it clear that certain crypto futures and options with fixed expiration dates will still fall outside this framework. CFDs allow traders to speculate on price fluctuations without holding the underlying asset. The current framework implemented in Australia since 2021 includes protections such as leverage limits, mandatory margin calls, and negative balance protection, which limits customer losses to the funds within their CFD trading accounts. ASIC is seeking industry and stakeholder feedback on the proposed expansion and revisions, with a deadline of November 9. This move comes as Australia strengthens its broader digital asset regulation. In April of this year, Australia passed legislation to include cryptocurrency exchanges and tokenized custody platforms in its financial services licensing framework, with the new system set to take effect on April 9, 2027. ASIC has also required crypto companies relying on temporary enforcement exemptions under existing financial services laws to apply for licenses or seek changes to existing licenses by September 30.
Broadcom CEO: Many AI Investors Are Like Casino Gamblers
ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, Hock Tan, CEO of chip company Broadcom, stated at an event in Singapore on Monday that the AI boom has attracted a group of investors whose strategies resemble those of gamblers, some of whom have little understanding of what they are betting on. He said that many investors "have no idea what they are investing in," setting extremely high expectations, resulting in a situation that is "almost like being in a casino," specifically pointing to the investment frenzy driven by a lack of understanding of cutting-edge large language models. As the head of a company that designs key components for global data centers, Tan also questioned whether companies are wasting money on AI projects and the long-term economics of AI labs that are continuously losing money. He mentioned that ChatGPT developer OpenAI's annualized revenue reached $50 billion in September, indicating a viable model, but does not guarantee long-term profitability; it is still losing money due to high training costs, currently only indicating that cutting-edge generative models have significant potential revenue growth. Tan also warned that insufficient capital could become the next constraint on industry growth. Firmus Grid, an Australian data center company backed by Nvidia, withdrew its planned $5.5 billion IPO last week. Before Tan's remarks, DBS Group CEO Tan Su Shan stated that after a large amount of investment, the market is re-pricing the risks of AI financing.
Multiple Haptic Sensor Companies Intensively Fundraising, Pasini Initiates Listing Guidance
ChainCatcher news, in 2025, the domestic haptic sensor sector saw about 20 funding rounds, with a disclosed total amount close to 1.8 billion yuan. Data from Caixin shows that in the first seven months of 2026, the humanoid robot sensor field completed 15 funding rounds, totaling 3.1 billion yuan, with July alone accounting for 1.56 billion yuan. Relevant estimates suggest that the global haptic sensor market size will be about 6 billion yuan in 2026 and about 29 billion yuan in 2030. Haptic sensor company Pasini was founded by Xu Jincheng and Nie Xiangru in June 2021 in Shenzhen, with the Hall array sensor PX-6AX GEN3 priced from 199 yuan. The company completed over 1 billion yuan in Series B funding in March, with a valuation exceeding 10 billion yuan, followed by 1 billion yuan in strategic funding in August and several hundred million yuan in B++ funding in September, accumulating over 4 billion yuan in total funding, with BYD as the largest external shareholder. On September 20, Pasini completed the guidance filing with the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau, with Guotai Junan as the advisory institution. Haptic perception chip company Tashan Technology was founded by Ma Yang, Sun Tengchen, and Yang Wuqiang in December 2017, with revenue expected to exceed 100 million yuan in 2024, and has been listed by Nvidia as the world's first haptic simulation partner for Isaac Sim. Qianjue Robotics was founded by Ma Daolin in May 2024, with Hillhouse Capital having led the angel round, and this September completed two rounds of strategic financing totaling several hundred million yuan. Companies like Daimeng, Weitai, Oakfruit, Yimu Technology, and Lingxin Qiaoshou also received new financing or advanced higher valuation financing in 2026.
Yirun Zhike Issues Statement: Company Operations Normal, Involved Matters Not Related to Its Business
ChainCatcher news, financial technology company Yirun Zhike issued a statement through its public account on October 12, 2026, stating that it had noted the police report released by "Ping An Beijing Chaoyang" that day, and that the relevant situation should be based on the official report. Yirun Zhike stated that it is an independently operated listed company focusing on financial technology and AI technology innovation. The company claimed that the reasons for the involvement in this incident have not been found to be directly related to Yirun Zhike's business, and its operations remain normal, with all business progressing in an orderly manner. The company also stated that it will strictly adhere to regulatory requirements, maintain compliant and stable operations, protect the legal rights and interests of partners and users, and thank all parties for their attention.
Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Expected to Replicate Gold ETF Path, Market Cap Seen at $30 Trillion in Ten Years
ChainCatcher news, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently stated in an interview that Bitcoin's market cap could rise to $30 trillion in the next ten years, with a path similar to the long-term expansion following the launch of gold ETFs. He compared two time points: when the gold ETF was launched in 2004, the gold market size was about $2.5 trillion; when the Bitcoin spot ETF is listed in 2024, Bitcoin's market cap is expected to be about $2 trillion. Hougan believes that Bitcoin still has considerable long-term upside potential, and the real risk does not lie at the protocol level or in quantum computing, but in whether investors can navigate multiple bull and bear cycles and hold on.
OPay Plans to Raise About $500 Million Through New York IPO and Private Placement
ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, SoftBank-backed fintech company OPay Digital Services Ltd. plans to raise about $500 million through a New York IPO and private placement. Sources revealed that the financing scale includes about $200 million in a concurrent private placement, with Standard Bank Group as the investor. As the relevant information has not been made public, the sources requested anonymity. OPay primarily provides services such as mobile payments and digital finance, and if this plan for a U.S. listing proceeds, it will become another company supported by SoftBank seeking public capital market financing.
Ark Invest Maintains Bullish Five-Year Outlook on Bitcoin, Stablecoins Change Emerging Market Narrative
ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin Magazine, Lorenzo Valente, Director of Digital Asset Research at Ark Invest, stated in a video interview with Bitcoin Magazine that despite Bitcoin's lackluster performance this year, even declining, Ark Invest has not changed its long-term view and still considers Bitcoin's development to be in its early stages over a five-year cycle. He also introduced Ark's Big Ideas report and Bitcoin's role as digital gold and permissionless currency. Valente pointed out that the rise of stablecoins has changed Ark's judgment on the narrative of Bitcoin in emerging markets. He also discussed the rise of tokenized stocks and real-world assets, as well as the functionalities that tokenized stocks can achieve that traditional brokerage accounts cannot. Additionally, he mentioned the impact of rising interest rates, inflation, and AI on Bitcoin's macro outlook, and explored which tokenized business models will ultimately prevail, as well as the potential for tokenization to export U.S. assets to offshore markets. Regarding the market outlook, Valente provided Ark's expectations for Bitcoin over the next 12 to 18 months and discussed the four-year cycle and key points to watch next. Ark's Big Ideas report provided a price target for Bitcoin in 2030, and the reasons why institutional funds are still on the sidelines were also among the topics he discussed.
TROOPS Plans to Acquire EFFORCE Founded by Apple Co-Founder Steve Wozniak to Expand Digital Asset Business
ChainCatcher news, according to PR Newswire, Nasdaq-listed company TROOPS Inc. (TROO) announced that it has signed a conditional share purchase agreement with EFFORCE Group, planning to expand its digital asset infrastructure business through this transaction. EFFORCE was founded by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and focuses on blockchain technology, digital assets, and sustainability. After the transaction is completed, Wozniak will retain his rights as a shareholder of EFFORCE. TROOPS stated that this merger will combine the advantages of both parties in technology, regulatory compliance, business expansion, and market channels to create a digital asset infrastructure platform covering multiple fields.
Bitcoin Starts the Week Cautiously: Limited by Strong Dollar and Rising U.S. Treasury Yields
ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the market started cautiously this week due to the strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Bitcoin is trading above $83,000, while gold hovers around $4,180 per ounce, both down about 0.5%. Tech stock futures are slightly lower, WTI crude oil has risen above $92 per barrel, and the US dollar index (DXY) remains above 102.4. The US inflation data to be released this Wednesday will be the focus of the market. The market expects the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in the US to be 2.5%, and the overall CPI year-on-year growth rate to be 3.7%. If these expectations are met, it will accelerate compared to last month and may further influence the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Additionally, according to market news, IREN, which has shifted from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure business, has reached a multi-year cloud service agreement with the AI company Anthropic. Following the announcement, IREN's US stock rose about 4% in pre-market trading.
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October rises to 84%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike drops to 17%
ChainCatcher news, according to Polymarket data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in October has dropped to 17%, while the probability of maintaining rates has risen to 84%. The trading volume for this related predictive event has reached $32 million.
EU MiCA review involves mandatory certification requirements for non-custodial Bitcoin wallets
ChainCatcher news, the EU is reviewing MiCA, with consultations involving the requirement for developers of non-custodial Bitcoin wallets to obtain certification before offering software to the public. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) stated that open-source development, self-custody, automated smart contracts, and permissionless infrastructure should not automatically be considered regulated intermediaries. At the same time, ESMA proposed establishing new regulated services for crypto asset service providers that offer customers access to decentralized protocols. This review has not changed existing rules, and the European Commission will assess the relevant opinions and submit a review report by June 30, 2027, in accordance with Article 140 of MiCA.
Moscow Exchange plans to launch regulated cryptocurrency trading on December 1
ChainCatcher news, Russia's largest securities exchange, the Moscow Exchange, is conducting a pilot for cryptocurrency trading with professional participants and plans to launch regulated cryptocurrency trading services on December 1. Boris Blokhin, Managing Director of the Exchange's Securities Market, stated that the relevant tests were initiated a week ago. Boris Blokhin pointed out that the Moscow Exchange's existing licenses already cover cryptocurrency trading services, and there is no need to apply for additional licenses or permits. Relevant cryptocurrency market regulations in Russia came into effect on September 1, allowing citizens to trade cryptocurrencies on domestic exchanges licensed by the Central Bank of Russia. Investors without qualified investor status will face investment limits, with trading restricted to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT. Sberbank expects that the scale of cryptocurrency trading in Russia in its first year will reach at least 4 trillion rubles, with only 20% completed through exchanges, while about 80% will still occur through unregulated channels.
Opinion: Clarity Act not passed, crypto executives see DeFi opportunities
ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, crypto industry executives believe that the failure of the Clarity Act will create opportunities for decentralized finance, but mature exchanges may continue to maintain a competitive edge. Initiatives from the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission may promote the expansion of regulated on-chain trading and increase institutional participation. Legal experts indicate that the regulatory framework is expected to advance gradually, but there are still gaps that need to be addressed by the US Congress.
Opinion: Bitcoin is the fastest horse, aiming for $1 million by 2030
ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin Magazine, Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of The Big Reset, stated in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that central banks are buying gold at a record pace but are unwilling to hold Bitcoin because they prefer assets they can control, while Bitcoin's price, supply, and market are beyond their control. Middelkoop pointed out that institutional investors are entering this market through Bitcoin ETFs, and the fund he manages has also allocated Bitcoin. He discussed how currency depreciation trades are driving Bitcoin, gold, and commodities into a bull market, and touched on topics such as BRICS countries, de-dollarization, and declining demand for US Treasuries. He proposed a 25% investment portfolio model that includes real estate, gold, stocks, and Bitcoin, and set a target price of $1 million for Bitcoin by 2030. The interview also covered oil prices, the situation in Iran and the Gulf, and the Bitcoin Amsterdam conference and "Mad Max" style Bitcoin scenarios.
US stock Q3 earnings season begins, tech sector profits expected to grow 43.3%
ChainCatcher news, the US stock Q3 earnings season kicked off this week. According to Zacks data, the year-on-year profit growth for S&P 500 constituents is expected to reach 24.3%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with the tech sector expected to grow by 43.3%, making it a major contributor. The AI narrative has entered its fourth year, and investors are shifting their focus to evidence of stable profit growth. If companies fail to meet market expectations, stocks that previously rose due to AI prospects may face greater downward pressure. Major tech companies' earnings release dates include: SML on October 14, TSMC on October 15, Netflix on October 20, Tesla on October 21, Western Digital on October 22, SK Hynix on October 27, Alphabet and Microsoft on October 28, Intel, Amazon, and SanDisk on October 29, and Kioxia on October 30. In November, Apple and Palantir on November 2, AMD and SpaceX on November 3, Meta and Arm on November 4, Cisco on November 11, Applied Materials on November 12, Nvidia on November 18, and Dell on November 24. On December 1, Marvell and CrowdStrike will report. The above dates are predictions, and actual disclosure times may be adjusted.
ZachXBT criticizes XRPL vulnerability bounty of only $250,000
ChainCatcher news, on-chain detective ZachXBT responded to the XRP Ledger Foundation regarding security fixes, stating that the foundation's treasury holds billions of dollars but only paid $250,000 to the white hat hacker who discovered the serious vulnerability of "XRP infinite issuance." He claimed this would encourage attackers to exploit vulnerabilities rather than report them in good faith, potentially stealing hundreds of millions of dollars. ZachXBT also stated that this makes it difficult for people to view the XRP Ledger or Ripple as serious institutions. Previously, the XRP Ledger Foundation clarified that the relevant vulnerability did not lead to the issuance of additional XRP, and the patch was driven by community consensus.
Data: Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $542 million last week, with Blackrock's ETHA leading with a net outflow of $477 million
ChainCatcher news, according to SoSoValue data, Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $542 million last week. The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest net outflow last week was Blackrock's ETF ETHA, with a weekly net outflow of $477 million, currently having a historical total net inflow of $12.79 billion; followed by Grayscale's Ethereum Trust ETHE, with a weekly net outflow of $31.8918 million, currently having a historical total net outflow of $5.47 billion. The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest net inflow last week was Morgan Stanley's ETF MSSE, with a weekly net inflow of $1.3209 million, currently having a historical total net inflow of $42.68 million. As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $15.71 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value compared to total Ethereum market value) of 5.18%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $13.26 billion.
Prediction market Kalshi investigates early bets on White House press secretary
ChainCatcher news, according to The Block citing The Wall Street Journal, the prediction market platform Kalshi is investigating several trades that correctly bet on Trump appointing Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary before the announcement. Trump confirmed the appointment in a post on Truth Social on Friday afternoon, with Zacharia replacing Karoline Leavitt. At least three bets totaling about $173 occurred before the media reported the selection, with the market expected to pay out about $9,600 after settlement. One bet of about $19 was placed around 10:42 PM Eastern Time on Thursday, expected to pay out $1,896; two other bets of about $74 and $80 were placed around 1:41 PM on Friday, expected to pay out $3,689 and $4,023, respectively. Reports indicate that days before the news broke, Kalshi traders gave Zacharia a probability of about 1%. This investigation follows the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's settlement in August with a former White House teleprompter operator who traded on Kalshi related to Trump’s speeches.
Prediction market Kalshi and Polymarket see two-day trading volume reach $8.56 billion
ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg's report on October 11, 2026, the prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket set record trading volumes over the weekend driven by NFL and NCAA events, with a combined total of $8.56 billion over two days, data compiled by Dune Analytics shows. The total trading volume for both platforms that week reached $22.2 billion, also setting a record. The prediction market previously allowed users to trade on various events from Federal Reserve decisions to pop culture. This American football season shows that its growth relies more on sports trading. The surge in NFL trading on Kalshi and Polymarket has sparked scrutiny of sports betting regulations.
XRP Ledger Foundation: Confirms no new XRP has been created, key vulnerability has been fixed
ChainCatcher reports that the XRP Ledger Foundation clarified the recent security vulnerability incident of the XRP Ledger on platform X, stating that the vulnerability could be used to bypass the limit of XRP's total supply fixed at 100 billion coins, but it was patched two weeks ago with version 3.4.1. After verification, no new XRP was found to have been created, and the total amount of XRP currently circulating in the ledger is approximately 99.986 billion coins. The foundation stated that the vulnerability required hundreds of deliberately constructed operations to trigger, and normal payment transactions were unlikely to be involved. In the future, they will strengthen formal verification, AI adversarial testing, security research collaboration, and vulnerability bounty programs with RippleX and the community. Regarding the patching process, the foundation explained that publicly releasing a patch could allow attackers to use AI to accelerate vulnerability analysis. To address this situation, the XRPL community coordinated efforts. Participants including the XRP Ledger Foundation, RippleX, core developers, and validators reached a social consensus to agree on a direct release of the fix. Additionally, version 3.4.1 was only adopted as the mandatory version for the network after going through the normal amendment voting process and receiving over 80% support from validators for two consecutive weeks. Protocol changes still need to be completed through the amendment mechanism. Previously, RippleX engineering head J. Ayo Akinyele also posted on platform X expressing great concern over the recently disclosed critical vulnerability in the XRP Ledger (XRPL) payment engine, which is a serious security issue that has existed in the codebase for over 10 years and theoretically could lead to XRP being over-created, breaking the fixed supply limit. However, the vulnerability was discovered by the security research organization Veria AI through Ripple's vulnerability bounty program before it could be exploited.
Microsoft CEO: Cutting-edge models should be viewed as internal risks, control must be placed outside the models
ChainCatcher reports that Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella discussed the trust architecture in the era of superintelligence. He stated that traditional software can trace behavior back to specific code paths, while current superintelligent systems lack this mechanistic understanding and cannot attribute model behavior and outputs to specific training data or weight configurations, yet they are being deployed and accessing sensitive data, executing critical actions on behalf of others. He emphasized that responsibility for intelligent behavior cannot be outsourced to model providers, nor can superintelligence be accepted or rejected as a nested black box. Nadella proposed that the supply of intelligence should be separated from the authorization of intelligence, surrounding nondeterministic models with deterministic system design, human control, and operational protocols, and establishing industry standards when existing standards are insufficient. He suggested managing cutting-edge models with closed-source and open-source weights as internal risks, not because they are inherently malicious, but because capable agents that can access important systems may make mistakes or be compromised. Related practices include establishing identities, restricting permissions, recording activities, and setting isolation boundaries, with the transparency of the model's reasoning chain being an unnegotiable starting point. He further stated that permissions and action controls must be placed outside the models, separating the models, orchestration layers, and action spaces. Principles include avoiding reliance on a single model for important outcomes or self-verification, ensuring key actions leave tamper-proof and human-readable evidence, continuously testing for failures, attacks, and edge cases, allowing organizations to independently decide access and action permissions, verifying independently of the intelligence being validated, presuming models have been compromised and supporting mid-course pauses or shutdowns, and timely disclosure and sharing of lessons learned within the industry in case of failure or compromise. He concluded that the most trustworthy superintelligent systems are those that require the least trust in the models.
Meme Popular Rankings
According to the meme token tracking and analysis platform GMGN market data, as of October 13, 08:00,
The top five popular tokens in ETH over the past 24 hours are: ZC, CLAUS, DNA, STOCKER, DOPE
The top five popular tokens in Solana over the past 24 hours are: HIRE, SEAN, MarsX, casino, Solamians
The top five popular tokens in Base over the past 24 hours are: XDP, Basecat, CTR, PROS, VVV
What are the noteworthy articles to read in the past 24 hours?
CICC: The AI of the "Marshmallow" Era in America
Chart 30: The bubble burst generally occurs after a systemic tightening of financing conditions. Source: iFinD, CICC Research Department. Specifically, two types of risks need to be monitored in the short term. One is the tightening of financing conditions, which weakens private investment momentum. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates or banks tighten lending standards, corporate financing costs and the difficulty of obtaining funds may rise, thereby dragging down private investment expansion. The second is the intensification of short-term financing pressure, amplifying liquidity risks. The spread between repurchase agreements and asset-backed commercial paper markets remains higher than normal, indicating that some market participants' short-term financing pressures have not yet dissipated. If monetary policy tightens further at this time, it may increase the difficulty of debt rollover and amplify fluctuations in the short-term funding market.
Recession fears may be overvalued. Although Wilson acknowledges that the continued rise in yields poses a risk of evolving into a growth constraint, he currently believes that this scenario has not yet materialized. He pointed out that the current rise in yields is largely driven by economic growth itself and the capital demand it generates, rather than purely by inflation or policy expectations. From the perspective of real interest rates, Wilson subtracts the current CPI year-on-year of about 3.4% from the effective federal funds rate of 3.88%, resulting in a spread far below the peak levels before previous recessions, indicating that the market's pessimistic expectations for growth prospects are overestimated. Combined with optimistic expectations for the upcoming earnings season, Wilson concludes that there is still room for improvement in U.S. stock performance.
Manipulated and Withdrawn: Papertrade's 1000x Leverage Experiment Starts Off on the Wrong Foot
Moreover, this protocol, which focuses entirely on the blockchain, still has key permissions concentrated in the hands of a few. Jez stated that currently, only he and Blurr are involved in the project, with the front end completed by AI. According to the official launch announcement, the administrators consist of Jez, Blurr, and UngusTrade, forming a multi-signature that can pause openings, freeze the market, and modify fee parameters, while contract upgrades require a 7-day time lock. As of now, Papertrade has temporarily maintained its payouts, but the two premises it relies on for operation—predictable trader behavior and trustworthy external quotes—were challenged on the first day of launch.
He Yi discussed her recent health condition: revealing that she is pregnant again. Recently, due to some special health reasons, she has indeed been physically exhausted and has been tweeting less. However, she will still try to pay attention to the product feedback and needs raised by everyone to solve problems for them. She just received many private messages asking what health issues she has and urging her to take care of herself. Actually, it's fine; it's a good thing. During the event in Hong Kong this year, I was actually pregnant, but I was too tired at that time, and I couldn't keep that baby. I feel that maybe this little one just wants to say, "I want this mom." So now I happen to be pregnant again. My daily work has not decreased; I am still sitting in the small cubicle you see in everyone's photos, chatting with everyone, so I am indeed a bit busier and more tired. But overall, whether it's Binance, life, or health, everything is quite good.
Papertrade Lost $1.28 Million on Its First Day of Launch
Traders were indeed attracted. But when leverage is pushed to the limit, the risks of pricing and payouts ultimately fall on the funding pool. In centralized exchanges, market makers, risk control teams, and insurance funds share these risks, which are costs but allow the system to withstand shocks. Papertrade has cut out all these intermediaries, providing traders with an extreme experience, while the costs are transferred to the LPs in the pool. "Turning liquidation into ownership" sounds cool. But if the pool continues to be drained in a targeted manner, the ownership anchored by PAPER is just a continuously shrinking bottom pool. The $1.28 million incident is not fatal for Papertrade; the platform is still operating, and the TVL is still increasing. However, the structural issues it exposed will not disappear just by tightening a few parameters. Selling 1000x leverage is about stimulation, but the other side of stimulation is fragility.
Risk warning
