DWF Labs: Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows lag behind the market, making it difficult to predict future rises and falls

According to a report by Cointelegraph, DWF Labs pointed out in a research report released on Thursday that the daily capital flow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF is difficult to predict for Bitcoin's subsequent trends, with investors more inclined to buy after price increases and withdraw during declines.

The study covers 694 trading days since the launch of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024: in 8 instances where the Bitcoin price fell by 15%, there were net outflows of ETF funds in 7 of those cases; while in all 9 instances where the price rose by 15%, there were net inflows of funds.

DWF Labs concluded that ETF capital flows are more about confirming market trends rather than predicting them in advance. Data shows that the correlation coefficient of the day's ETF capital flow with the price changes of Bitcoin over the previous 5 trading days is 0.54, but the correlation coefficient with the price changes over the subsequent 5 trading days is only 0.03. From October 2025 to February 2026, the net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $6.9 billion, and during the market decline from May to June 2026, the net outflow was about $8.2 billion.

DWF Labs also noted that some ETF trades may involve buying fund shares while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin through futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as a hedging strategy, so the capital flow does not directly reflect investors' true bullish or bearish positions.