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Arthur Hayes: The burst of the AI bubble will trigger "super printing," driving Bitcoin back into a bull market

Arthur Hayes published a new article titled "Situationship," suggesting that the AI bubble may eventually burst, but its subsequent impact could drive global liquidity expansion and become a catalyst for the next Bitcoin bull market. Hayes believes that the key to determining whether AI is a bubble lies in how investors define AI infrastructure construction. He points out that the market generally views the trillions of dollars in AI capital expenditure as "technology investment" and assigns high growth valuations, but its essence is closer to "real estate investment."He states that the current AI infrastructure construction is actually about building data centers, power facilities, and other underlying assets that support computing power, rather than directly investing in technology companies like Apple. "Financial institutions, private credit funds, and governments may mistakenly believe that investing in AI data centers is equivalent to investing in tech giants, while in reality, it is more akin to investing in highly leveraged infrastructure projects." Hayes believes that the core reason for the AI bubble's burst is not that corporate profits cannot be realized, but rather excessive credit expansion. He indicates that, supported by the U.S. and Chinese governments, financial intermediaries may overbuild data centers, power facilities, and related supply chains, ultimately creating credit cycle risks similar to those of the 2008 financial crisis, rather than a profit valuation crisis like that of the 2000 internet bubble.However, Hayes believes that the long-term value of AI remains immense. He points out that the computing resources operating within data centers will drive the development of "silicon-based life," having a profound impact on human civilization similar to that of the railroad era. Regarding market impact, Hayes expects that after the AI bubble bursts, governments and central banks may adopt more aggressive monetary easing measures, repairing the financial system through "massive money printing," pushing risk assets back into an upward cycle, and ultimately benefiting Bitcoin. Hayes states that the core variable of the current AI cycle is whether the capital market has mispriced AI infrastructure, and this judgment will determine the future direction of the market.

WSJ: The burst of the storage chip stock bubble in this round has not triggered systemic shocks, with the S&P 500 only down 1.6% from its historical high

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. market has frequently seen bubbles around specific industries and themes in recent years, but these localized bubbles usually do not drag down the overall stock market when they burst.The current storage chip bubble rapidly inflated and burst within about 4 months, accompanied by severe volatility and a hedge fund falling into crisis, yet the S&P 500 index is only 1.6% away from its historical high, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 index set a new high last week. The pullback in AI-related stocks has also been almost completely offset by gains in other sectors.Over the past decade, the U.S. market has experienced bubbles in 3D printing, Chinese concept stocks, low-volatility products, SPACs, clean energy, cannabis, space, crypto assets, and AI concept stocks. Strategy fell 83% from its peak, Trump Media's stock price dropped 89%, and SK Hynix fell 55% before rebounding last Friday.Loose funding, speculative demand, and expectations for new technologies have driven these bubbles, while margin debt and leveraged ETFs in recent years have further amplified the volatility.These localized bubbles have not caused severe shocks to the economy, mainly because most were not financed by large amounts of debt. After the bubbles burst, the losses were primarily borne by investors, and the banking system did not suffer significant shocks.Macro strategist Russell Napier stated that the banking system remains healthy, so there is always more credit available in the market to create the next round of bubbles.However, AI investments are pushing the market into a more dangerous territory. Data center spending is expected to reach $7 trillion over the next four years, and if the productivity gains from AI are not sufficient to support such a scale of investment, capital misallocation could severely harm the economy.As AI construction increasingly relies on debt financing, if broader AI investments ultimately prove to be a bubble, their burst could impact the financial system, making it difficult for the overall market to remain unaffected.

Kimi B's head of the department: There is a bubble in the AI industry, but the fundamentals are solid; the price increase of APIs is due to tight computing power

According to a report by 21 Finance, Huang Zhenxin, the head of Kimi B-end at Moonshot AI, stated in a recent communication meeting that there is indeed a bubble in the current AI industry, but the fundamentals are very solid. Enterprises can now clearly calculate the return on investment (ROI), and the substantial transformation in productivity brought by AI has already occurred.Regarding the recent phenomenon of widespread price increases among model vendors, Huang Zhenxin pointed out that the core reason lies in the rising global computing power costs, and chip production capacity cannot meet the explosive growth in Token demand. He emphasized that evaluating the cost-performance ratio of models should not only look at the unit price of input and output but should also focus on the Cache hit rate. It is reported that Kimi's original factory Cache hit rate has reached over 90%, significantly reducing actual computing costs.In addition, Huang Zhenxin revealed that Kimi will continue to challenge innovations in underlying architecture to sustain the Scaling Law, and its Muon optimizer, which has been validated on a large scale, is now widely adopted by several mainstream large models in the industry. Regarding the "last mile" of enterprise AI implementation, he believes that as the foundational capabilities of models continue to strengthen, the technical paradigms at the application layer will also continue to simplify.
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