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According to Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmine, in an interview with Decrypt, the market should be very close to the bottom, as the current market sentiment is extremely poor and the price trend is also very bad.Fundstrat's analyst Tom Demar has been saying since last November that BTC would drop to $60,000. He initially believed that the bottom for ETH should be around $2,400, but if it cannot hold, it would bottom out near $1,890. He thinks it just needs to dip one more time, which would be the lowest point, indicating that we are very close to the end of the downward trend.Previously, Fundstrat stated in its 2026 cryptocurrency strategy advice to internal clients that the market would experience a deeper correction in the first half of the year, with a target price for BTC of $60,000 to $65,000; a target price for ETH of $1,800 to $2,000; and a target price for SOL of $50 to $75. However, Tom Lee himself has publicly claimed that both BTC and ETH will reach new highs in January 2026.

X product lead and Solana advisor Nikita Bier posted, announcing that X will launch more detection mechanisms for automated behavior and spam, and will continue to strengthen related measures in the future. If the system detects that an account has not been interacted with by a human, that account and its associated accounts may be suspended, even if used only for technical testing or experimentation, which may trigger restrictions.

On-chain analysis company CryptoQuant indicates that the "ultimate" bottom of the Bitcoin bear market is currently around $55,000, and the formation of a bear market bottom typically takes several months rather than being completed by a single capitulation event. CryptoQuant states that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets and is likely to represent the final bear market bottom. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is still over 25% higher than this level.The company notes that in past bear markets, prices fell below the realized price by 24% after the FTX collapse, and in the 2018 cycle, it dropped by 30%. After reaching these levels, Bitcoin usually requires four to six months to build a bottom. CryptoQuant believes another sign that Bitcoin has not yet reached a structural bottom is the significant single-day realized losses. Data shows that when the Bitcoin price dropped 14% to $62,000, holders recorded an average realized loss of $5.4 billion in a single day, the highest daily loss since March 2023, surpassing the $4.3 billion recorded a few days after the FTX collapse in November 2022.Despite the massive scale of losses, CryptoQuant states that the price bottom has not yet arrived. The monthly cumulative realized losses measured in Bitcoin are still far below the levels corresponding to bear market bottoms, currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the bear market in 2022, the report notes. Several key valuation metrics also remain above historical panic sell-off regions. CryptoQuant claims that the MVRV ratio (the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value) has not yet entered the extremely undervalued range that historically marks bear market bottoms. Similarly, the NUPL metric has not reached the unrealized loss level of about 20% seen in past cycle lows.The behavior of long-term holders has also not reflected complete panic selling. CryptoQuant points out that long-term holders are currently selling at prices close to breakeven, whereas during past bear market bottoms, they endured losses of 30%-40%. Additionally, about 55% of the Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows typically fall within the range of 45%-50%. CryptoQuant further states that its bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase," rather than the "extreme bear market phase"—the latter historically marks the point at which prices begin to enter a bottoming phase. The company notes that this extreme phase typically lasts for several months, indicating that the formation of a bear market bottom requires time.

According to The Block, on-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant stated that the "ultimate" bear market bottom for Bitcoin is currently around $55,000. However, bear market bottoms typically take months to form, rather than being completed by a single capitulation event.Analysis shows that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets, and the current price is still more than 25% above that level. Despite Bitcoin dropping to $62,000, resulting in a single-day realized loss of $5.4 billion, a new high since March 2023, a structural bottom has not yet approached. The monthly cumulative realized loss (in BTC) remains far below the bear market bottom level: currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market.Several key valuation indicators have also not entered the historical capitulation zone: the MVRV ratio has not reached the extremely undervalued range; the NUPL indicator has not reached the historical cycle low of about 20% unrealized loss; long-term holders are currently selling at approximately breakeven, while during historical bear market bottoms, they typically endure losses of 30%-40%; about 55% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows are usually around 45%-50%. CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase" rather than the "extreme bear market phase," which historically lasts for several months and marks the beginning of the price entering a bottoming phase.

According to Bloomberg, Coinbase's stock price rebounded the day after the release of its weak quarterly earnings report. Some bottom-fishing funds believe that the market has already fully priced in the negative factors, and the crypto market may be approaching a temporary bottom.The earnings report shows that the company's trading volume has weakened and trading revenue is under pressure, highlighting its performance's high sensitivity to fluctuations in digital asset prices and retail trading activity. Previously, affected by the overall weakening sentiment in the crypto market, Coinbase's stock price had fallen for several consecutive weeks and had significantly corrected before the earnings report was released. Market analysts believe that, with expectations having been downgraded and positions becoming more defensive, some investors chose to buy on dips, driving the stock price to stabilize and rebound in the short term.

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, stated that the Bitcoin market may not have reached its true bottom yet, and "the real bottom may not appear until October 2026." He previously predicted that Bitcoin could drop to the $60,000 range in the third quarter of 2026.Brandt believes that prices may oscillate upward in the short term, but could still fall back to the $50,000 high range within the year. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes pointed out that Ethereum prices may continue to consolidate in the current range until dollar liquidity improves. As of the time of writing, Ethereum is priced at about $1,941, with a decline of over 40% in the past 30 days. However, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, believes that Ethereum is currently in an attractive accumulation zone and emphasized that stablecoin trading volume has increased by about 200% over the past 18 months.In terms of market predictions, Polymarket data shows that there is a 41% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 by the end of February, while the probability of returning to $75,000 is 29%. Within 2026, the probability of Bitcoin returning to $120,000 is 23%, and the probability of breaking $150,000 is only 10%. For Ethereum, the market expects a 76% probability of it reaching $1,500 in 2026, and a 23% probability of dropping to $1,600.

Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin stated at the Consensus conference in Hong Kong that Bitcoin may need to return to the $50,000 or even $40,000 range to form a true bottom and begin a lasting recovery.Terpin believes that the current crypto market is developing according to historical patterns, and he is skeptical of recent bullish predictions, stating that Bitcoin typically reaches a bull market peak in the fourth quarter after halving, followed by a correction, which is consistent with previous cycles. He pointed out that in past cycles, it often took about a year for the bubble to burst and hit the bottom, and the current market environment is fragile, which may lead to another pain point. Terpin emphasized that Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reduces miner rewards approximately every four years, creates supply shocks and enhances scarcity, and this design has historically been a key factor in driving bull markets.

Chairman of Bitmine, Tom Lee, stated that Ethereum may experience a new round of V-shaped rebound after a recent decline, and it is currently close to the bottom range. He pointed out that since 2018, Ethereum has gone through 8 cycles of declines exceeding 50%, and all 8 have rebounded at a similar pace and achieved a 100% recovery.Despite the pressure on price performance, on-chain data shows that the demand for ETH staking remains strong. Currently, the waiting time for validators has risen to a historical high of 71 days, with approximately 4 million ETH queued for staking, and the total staking accounts for 30.3% of the circulating supply (about 36.7 million ETH).

Polkadot data shows that robots have generated 51% of the total network traffic, officially surpassing the proportion of human activity for the first time.

Bitcoin mining has entered a severe phase, with unit hash rate revenue dropping to a historical low of about $35/PH. Affected by a significant market correction, the price of Bitcoin has fallen over 50% from its 2025 peak of $126,000, currently hovering around the $60,000 range. Against this backdrop, the average production cost of a single Bitcoin across the network is approximately $87,000, about 45% higher than the current market price, marking the first large-scale "underwater operation" since the bear market of 2022.CryptoQuant defines the current phase as the "surrender phase," characterized by the accelerated shutdown of old mining machines and a noticeable contraction in overall network hash rate. As a result, the stock prices of listed mining companies such as MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms have dropped over 20% this week, with funds flowing towards more stable traditional assets like gold.Meanwhile, North America's mining hubs (especially Texas) are facing severe winter storms, forcing some mining farms to limit power usage to ensure the stability of the civilian power grid. Coupled with miner exits, the network experienced a historic difficulty adjustment of about 11% on February 9. However, due to the significant drop in coin prices, the profitability recovery effect from the difficulty adjustment is limited.The industry's "Miner Profitability Sustainability Index" has fallen to 21, indicating that, except for a few operators with low electricity costs and high efficiency, most miners have completely compressed profit margins. For companies with electricity prices above $0.05 per kilowatt-hour or those still using older model mining machines, this difficulty adjustment is unlikely to reverse the risk of total shutdown.To cope with the "2026 mining winter," leading companies are accelerating their transition to artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC). IREN and Core Scientific have redirected some of their data center power capacity to support generative AI businesses to secure more stable long-term contract revenues. Recently, Bitfarms announced a complete exit from Bitcoin mining to focus on its AI strategic transformation.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, a certain whale purchased 2,072.9 ETH for $1,925.47 each on the morning of February 10, spending $4 million. After holding for five days, they decided to sell at $2,009.56 five hours ago, ultimately making a profit of $174,000.

CryptoOnchain posted on social media that when the price of Ethereum dropped to the $2000 range, Token Transfers (14-day moving average) surged sharply to 2.75 million, the highest level since August 2025. This spike indicates panic selling and a "cleanout" of weak hands. Historical data shows that such extreme activity often signals a depletion of selling pressure and may form a local bottom.It is reported that Token Transfers (14-day moving average) is an on-chain data metric used to observe the trends and intensity of token transfer activities on the Ethereum (or related blockchain) network. It typically refers to the simple moving average of the number of transfer transactions for all ERC-20 standard tokens on the network over the past 14 days.

Kaiko Research analysis indicates that Bitcoin fell to around $59,930 earlier this month, marking a new low since October 2024, which may signify the "midpoint" of the current bear market. The market has moved away from the post-halving frenzy phase and entered a typical bear market period that usually lasts about 12 months, paving the way for the next accumulation phase.On-chain indicators and the performance of mainstream crypto assets show that the market is approaching key technical support levels, which will determine whether the four-year cycle framework continues. The spot trading volume on major centralized exchanges has decreased from about $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November, a drop of approximately 30%. The total open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures has also decreased from $29 billion to $25 billion, indicating ongoing market deleveraging. With multi-cycle oversold indicators emerging, the question of Bitcoin's rebound is more about "when it will happen" rather than "if it will happen."

CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin price has fallen below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a significant moving average divergence reflecting a correction or "repricing" phase following the previous uptrend. Additionally, CryptoQuant's Price Z-Score is currently -1.6, indicating that the Bitcoin price is below the statistical mean, which typically suggests increased selling pressure and weakened trend momentum. Historically, similar ranges have often corresponded to longer bottoming periods rather than quick rebounds.In the derivatives market, crypto analyst Darkfost pointed out that the seller-dominated pattern is strengthening. Data shows that last Sunday, the monthly net active trading volume (Net Taker Volume) turned significantly negative to -$272 million, while the active buy-sell ratio on Binance dropped below 1, indicating a significant increase in market selling pressure. Currently, futures trading volume is still significantly higher than spot inflows, and the market needs stronger spot buying to trigger a rebound.

According to official news, MEXC has officially launched the AZTEC Launchpad event, where both new and old users can participate in the subscription, getting early access to high-potential tokens and becoming the first holders.New users can subscribe to AZTEC tokens at a 70% discount using USDT on the MEXC Launchpad, sharing a total of 500,000 AZTEC. All users can enjoy a 60% discount on AZTEC tokens, sharing a total of 250,000 AZTEC.Event time: February 9, 2026, 20:00 (UTC+8) -- February 12, 2026, 23:00 (UTC+8)

According to the official announcement, Gate will launch the robot upgrade event from February 9, 16:00 to February 27, 08:00 (UTC+8). During the event, both new and existing users who sign up to participate in robot trading will have the chance to receive robot trial funds and Gate merchandise.At the same time, users participating in trading can also take part in the leaderboard evaluation based on the total trading volume of the robots and the trading volume of different strategies, covering strategies such as spot grid, contract grid, spot martingale, and contract martingale, to win corresponding ranking rewards.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin market sentiment index has fallen to an all-time low, with some contrarian investors believing that $60,000 may have become the bottom of this cycle.Data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to a historical low of 7 over the weekend, indicating that the market is in a state of "extreme fear." Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, pointed out that this indicator, along with the relative strength index, shows that the market is deeply oversold, a similar situation occurred during the 2018 bear market and the pandemic crash in March 2020, which may create conditions for a rebound.CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap shows that if the Bitcoin price rises by about $10,000, it could trigger the liquidation of over $5.45 billion in short positions, while a drop to $60,000 would only trigger $2.4 billion in liquidations. This imbalance may drive a short covering rally. However, structural risks in the market still exist.CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin is still far below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a price Z-score of -1.6, indicating that it remains in a phase dominated by selling pressure. The net buying volume in the derivatives market has turned negative, and the Binance buy-sell ratio has also fallen below 1, showing strong selling pressure in the futures market.Analysts point out that stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a sustained rebound. From a longer-term perspective, historical data shows that Bitcoin bear market bottoms typically form below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently around $57,000. If history repeats itself, the downside scenario could extend to $42,000.

The founder of crypto market maker Wintermute, Evgeny Gaevoy, analyzed the unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets on February 8th. He indicated that it is likely due to a market-making bot experiencing a liquidation, with losses potentially reaching tens of millions of dollars. The unusual fluctuations were caused by the bot's losses rather than any malicious intent from market makers, and Wintermute was clearly not involved.Evgeny Gaevoy further expressed skepticism regarding rumors of "large institutions facing liquidation" in the market, and even if such cases do exist, they would not have a medium to long-term impact. In contrast to the past collapses of Three Arrows Capital and FTX, where liquidation news spread quickly and there were clear signs indicating the validity of the liquidations, such as institutions seeking rescue, the current market rumors mainly come from anonymous accounts and have not been confirmed by reliable sources.The leverage in this cycle primarily comes from perpetual contracts. Trading platforms no longer take risks with user assets to invest in low-liquidity assets or extend special credit as they did in the past. The tightening of credit has resulted in institutional credit sizes being less than $2 billion, which limits the impact and makes it difficult to trigger a chain liquidation like in 2022.Previous reports indicated that on February 8th, there were unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets, with single-minute amplitudes exceeding 1% and even 3% from 00:05 to 00:17.