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LINK $8.27 -0.46%
HYPE $54.20 -0.49%
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Nansen founder: Bitcoin will never drop below $60,000 again, there are no signs of an end to the global monetary easing cycle

Nansen founder and CEO Alex Svanevik stated that Bitcoin's current price of around $60,000 may have marked the low point of this cycle. "Personally, I don't think Bitcoin will go below $60,000 again; I believe that's in the past, and I think it's forever." Alex Svanevik said this judgment is based on Bitcoin's positioning as a hedge against global central bank currency expansion, and he has not seen signs that the global monetary easing cycle is about to end. At the same time, the crypto industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation; crypto assets were previously in the toy world of blockchain and are now entering the real world era.In terms of the public chain ecosystem, Svanevik holds a long-term bullish view on Solana, stating that the perception of it as merely a meme coin chain is completely absurd. He believes Solana has "possibly the most effective BD team" and "an incredible team." However, Svanevik declined to translate this judgment into a specific price prediction for SOL—"Intuitively, I would think it will rise, but I can't be sure." Svanevik is also optimistic about the Robinhood chain, which just launched in July this year, believing it is rising as a strong competitor to Base due to its excellent user distribution capabilities. However, he judges that Robinhood is unlikely to issue a token—on one hand, it doesn't need to, and on the other hand, as a publicly traded company on NASDAQ, issuing a token would logically contradict competing with its own stock, "All value should be directed to HOOD stock."

The CFTC warns that event contract markets have an obligation to display clear and accurate derivative pricing information

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a notice reminding regulated entities involved in the listing, promotion, or acceptance of event contracts to ensure that consumers are provided with clear and accurate product pricing information, avoiding misleading market participants, including the obligation to display clear and accurate derivative pricing information.The CFTC's Market Oversight and Market Participants divisions stated that registered entities and relevant personnel must comply with regulatory requirements, ensuring that users fully understand the product attributes in the CFTC-regulated market, and strengthen the supervision of information disclosure by intermediaries, related parties, and partners. It was also specifically pointed out that displaying event contract prices using the common "American odds format" may mislead traders' understanding of the product nature and prevent users from fully obtaining key trading information such as market depth and price impact.The CFTC requires that market participants clearly show consumers that the products are event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges, and any misleading pricing display behavior related to regulated products may violate relevant provisions of U.S. federal law regarding the prohibition of manipulative trading practices.

"1011 Insider Whale" agent: SK Hynix's rebound may be due to short covering, AI storage cycle entering the return verification phase

"1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin released a weekly analysis stating that he previously suggested gradually positioning in storage chips and buying on dips, but the market did not experience the expected pullback. He has sold half of the previously rebounded positions during the surge, not because the investment logic has changed, but because he noticed the funding structure driving the rise, stating, "This is more like a short squeeze rather than a final confirmation of the market fundamentals." Rapid capital replenishment of short positions can create short-term increases in stocks like SK Hynix, but cannot solely support a sustained trend. The risks of Korean leveraged ETFs have not been fully released, but the decline in asset scale mainly comes from net value shrinkage rather than investor exit. Currently, the cumulative net subscription of related financial products remains at historical highs and has not turned negative.Garrett Jin emphasized that the decline in the scale of Korean leveraged ETFs does not indicate a bearish outlook on storage demand. SK Hynix's 2026 capacity is already sold out, and Micron's orders are covered until 2028, with strong demand expected to continue until the second half of 2027. However, the storage industry is essentially a cyclical industry, and stock prices have already risen by hundreds of percentage points in advance. Cyclical stocks are usually difficult to sustain long-term growth through valuation expansion. The current market is entering a new phase of the AI capital expenditure cycle, shifting from "rewarding investment" to "evaluating investment returns." Regarding Bitcoin, Garrett Jin stated that it continues to meet the bottoming conditions since the low in July and maintains the position view established around $60,000.

The U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory bill has been postponed again, and the CLARITY Act may be delayed until the midterm elections for further negotiations

The U.S. Senate has postponed the vote on the CLARITY Act until after the summer recess, increasing uncertainty about the bill's passage in the short term.The CLARITY Act had previously received bipartisan support in the House of Representatives and aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, clarify the responsibilities of different regulatory agencies, and promote the further integration of crypto assets into the U.S. financial system.North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated that with the vote postponed until September, the probability of the bill's final passage "may have decreased by 50%." Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is responsible for pushing the negotiations, indicated that discussions have been ongoing for nearly 11 months, the bill text has increased by about 300 pages, and it has responded to numerous amendment requests from Democrats, and it should now enter the voting phase.Currently, Democrats still oppose the existing version, with the main disagreement centered on the restrictions on government officials' interests in crypto assets. Democrats believe that the current version does not adequately limit federal officials' investments and promotion of crypto assets, nor does it require relevant personnel to fully divest from related holdings, while also seeking to grant state attorneys general stronger enforcement powers.Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers had previously pushed for the inclusion of stricter ethical oversight provisions, but negotiations are still ongoing. Democrats are particularly concerned about the connections between Trump and his family with crypto projects like World Liberty Financial.Previously, the crypto industry hoped the Senate could advance procedural voting before the summer recess to adjust political investments during the 2026 midterm elections based on legislative progress. Data shows that the crypto industry's main political action committee, Fairshake, held nearly $200 million in cash reserves at the beginning of this cycle.

U.S. employment unexpectedly shrank in July, posing a policy challenge for the Federal Reserve, as market expectations for interest rate hikes quickly declined

In July, the United States unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 80,000. The increase in June was also revised down to only 20,000. Despite the weak job market, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos commented that in July, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.09% because both the number of job seekers and the number counted as unemployed decreased; this data brought the unemployment rate to its lowest level in two years.Analysts pointed out that this disappointing report has reignited concerns about the labor market and may complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as policymakers need to seek a balance between weak employment and persistent inflation. As a result, market expectations for interest rate hikes quickly receded.Affected by this, U.S. stock index futures surged rapidly, with Nasdaq futures up 0.79% for the day, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and Dow futures up 0.27%. U.S. Treasury prices soared, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury currently down 4.29 basis points, reported at 4.627%; non-U.S. currencies generally rose, with the dollar against the yen briefly falling 80 points, reported at 157.72.At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index DXY briefly fell nearly 30 points, reported at 99.67. Spot gold briefly rose about $40, reported at $4,351.43 per ounce.
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