predictit

ChainCatcher reported that after an investigation on the cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket, a trader who bet over $45 million on Trump winning the election was identified as a French user. Polymarket does not allow U.S. users, and a company spokesperson stated in a statement on Thursday that the company identified four other large accounts behind which individuals also had "extensive trading experience and financial services backgrounds."These accounts collectively spent millions of dollars supporting the Republican victory on November 5. Online investigators had previously expressed concerns that these accounts were operated by a single individual with the intent to distort Trump's odds. The spokesperson said, "Based on the investigation, we learned that this person took a directional position based on their personal views of the election. Furthermore, the investigation so far has not found any information indicating that the user manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market."So far this year, the trading volume for the election on Polymarket's main market has approached $2.4 billion. As of Thursday, the implied probability of Trump winning on the platform was 61.6%, compared to 59% on the competing platform Kalshi and 57% on PredictIt.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed on Friday to formally ban event contracts that bet on the outcomes of political activities, with three out of five commissioners in favor of the proposal. The public will have 60 days to comment on the potential rules.Currently, prediction platforms such as PredictIt, Polymarket, Zeitgeist, and Kalshi offer users the ability to purchase contracts related to the outcomes of actual events, including elections and policy-making.