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The SEC Chairman signals the direction of cryptocurrency regulation: clarifying the investment contract framework and promoting innovation exemptions and rule-making

The official website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission published a speech by Chairman Paul Atkins at the ETHDenver conference, outlining the agency's direction on cryptocurrency regulation, which mainly includes:Clarifying the "investment contract" framework: The Commission will study and publish a framework that clarifies under what circumstances crypto assets constitute investment contracts, as well as their formation and termination mechanisms.Innovation exemptions: Considering the establishment of innovation exemptions that allow for pilot trading of certain tokenized securities under restricted conditions, including limited trading on new platforms such as automated market makers, to accumulate experience for a long-term regulatory framework.Advancement of rules and guidance: Plans to initiate or advance rulemaking on topics such as financing pathways for crypto assets, broker-dealer custody for non-securities crypto assets (including payment stablecoins), and modernization of transfer agent rules; and continue to provide clarity for non-registration scenarios such as wallets and user interfaces through no-action letters and exemption orders.Regulatory philosophy: Paul Atkins emphasized that regulators should not react to short-term price fluctuations. The responsibility of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is to ensure adequate information disclosure and clear rules, allowing market participants to make decisions in a transparent environment, rather than "supporting prices."

K33: Bitcoin enters the "late bear market zone," market signals are similar to the bottom in late 2022

According to market news, research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a potential long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound.K33's research director Vetle Lunde noted that their proprietary indicators show a "striking similarity" between the current situation and September and November 2022 (close to the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 28% since January, with the funding rate being negative for 11 consecutive days, and open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, as long positions are being liquidated.Spot trading volume decreased by 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings decreasing by 103,113 BTC from last October's peak, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are primarily reducing exposure rather than completely exiting.The Fear and Greed Index recently hit a historical low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return from buying during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during extreme greed periods, suggesting that fear does not reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the range of $60,000 to $75,000 for an extended period, noting that the current entry point is attractive but requires patience.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin has released signals of dollar economic credit tightening ahead of Nasdaq

According to market news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in a recent article that the continuous decline in Bitcoin prices while the Nasdaq 100 index remains relatively stable may be signaling an early warning of tightening credit in the dollar economy, indicating that a broader credit crisis is on the horizon.He described Bitcoin as a "fiat liquidity fire alarm," reacting faster than traditional indicators like stocks. Hayes pointed out that Bitcoin is highly sensitive to changes in the financial system, and its price decline while the Nasdaq remains stable usually means that financial system issues not yet reflected in stocks are about to impact the broader market. He also warned that the impact of AI on white-collar jobs could lead to a large number of people losing income, making it difficult to repay credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages.An increase in default rates will prompt banks to tighten credit, further slowing the flow of funds in the economy, and the most vulnerable banks may go bankrupt due to a lack of funds to meet obligations. Hayes believes that the Federal Reserve may ultimately be forced to intervene on a large scale to prevent a full-blown crisis, and government intervention could make scarce digital assets like Bitcoin more attractive by undermining trust in the traditional monetary system.Hayes proposed two possible paths: one is that Bitcoin's drop from $126,000 to $60,000 has already priced in an economic slowdown, with stocks following suit; the other is that Bitcoin's decline continues, with stocks subsequently accounting for credit risks as well. Regardless of the path, the ultimate outcome will be a significant injection of funds into the system to prevent a banking crisis, and this response may offset Bitcoin's decline and drive it to new highs once the system stabilizes.

Ethereum core contributor reveals the inside story of Tomasz's resignation: Long-standing power struggles within the Ethereum Foundation

Ethereum consensus layer core contributor Greg posted on the X platform revealing the insider details of the resignation of Ethereum Foundation Executive Director Tomasz Stańczak. He expressed that he was not surprised by this event, as there has long been power struggles within the Ethereum Foundation. The organizational inertia of "this is how the Ethereum Foundation operates" makes reforms difficult to implement. Over the past year, core figure Vitalik Buterin has been mostly absent, leading to issues such as resource inefficiency and project stagnation within the foundation.The internal reforms initially promoted by Tomasz Stańczak were not widely accepted, which may have led to his departure. In fact, he has extensive industry experience, including backgrounds in Nethermind, Flashbots, and venture capital. Although potential conflicts of interest were disclosed in advance, some community members still have doubts about this.Additionally, Tomasz Stańczak sincerely hopes to return to technical development, but he is likely to encounter resistance in the reform process at the Ethereum Foundation, which may force him to leave. In the future, it will be necessary to introduce leaders with real business experience and decision-making power to drive the organization’s effective operation.

Viewpoint: The meme coin market has shown a "classic surrender signal," which may be brewing a rebound

According to a report by Cointelegraph, Santiment's latest report shows that the Memecoin market is currently exhibiting "classic capitulation signals." Despite the overall volatile trend in the cryptocurrency market, the sector may be approaching a temporary bottom.Data shows that the total market capitalization of Memecoins has dropped by about 34% over the past 30 days, falling to $31.02 billion. During the same period, Dogecoin fell by 32%. Santiment points out that there is currently a rising "nostalgic" sentiment towards Memecoins on social media, with many traders generally accepting the narrative of the "end of the meme era," and this consistent pessimism is often a typical market capitulation signal.The report states that when a sector is "completely sentenced to death" by the market, it is often the point of contrarian attention, as "maximum pain often corresponds to a temporary bottom." Additionally, Santiment notes that bearish comments on crypto social media significantly outnumber bullish comments. Historical experience shows that the market usually moves in the opposite direction of public expectations. Even if prices rebound, doubts remain in the market, which may instead favor a more sustained recovery trend.Santiment emphasizes that as Bitcoin becomes more institutionalized, the traditional path of "Bitcoin hitting new highs → Ethereum catching up → altcoin season rotating comprehensively" may no longer be fully applicable. In the future, altcoin trends may become more differentiated rather than simply "a rising tide lifts all boats."
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