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Serenity: Still optimistic about the storage sector, market focus shifts back to the photonics field

Serenity posted that it remains bullish on the storage sector represented by Micron (MU) and Samsung, believing that the market often rotates between different supply bottlenecks. This week, stocks in the photonics sector, such as AXTI and LITE, have once again become the focus; compared to the decline in July, the main change is the stock price, followed by scattered narratives and business updates.He pointed out that the market was already aware during the July decline that COHR and LITE's laser products would be sold out for the next two years, and it had also learned about the demand imbalance from AAOI's last quarter earnings call. Aside from the changes in stock prices after liquidation, the fundamentals of the photonics sector have not deteriorated; the bottlenecks in optical transceivers and indium phosphide substrates remain unchanged and may even worsen.In terms of storage, Serenity stated that retail investors are showing signs of capitulation, but the same group had previously signed 16 SCAs with MU and had extremely bullish forecasts. He believes that the current operating profit to market value ratio of the storage business is "extremely unreasonable," and that next year's demand imbalance may be even more severe; the only thing that has changed for the same company is the valuation and narrative, while the market rotates between different sectors.

"New Stock God" Serenity: Sivers may become a key bottleneck and "choke point" in the CPO industry

The "New Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that as Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology is expected to enter large-scale deployment in the second half of 2027, Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) may play both a bottleneck and a key node role in the industry.It pointed out that there are signs of tight supply for Continuous Wave (CW) lasers. Affected by previous orders from NVIDIA, the capacities of companies such as Sumitomo Electric, Furukawa Electric, and Win Semi are highly saturated. Meanwhile, Sivers, which adopts a fab-lite model, has effectively secured a significant amount of CW laser supply by locking in capacity with foundries like Win Semi in advance.The analysis believes that multiple CPO routes, including ASIC projects from Ayar Labs, Jabil, Marvell Celestial, and other large-scale cloud providers, are highly dependent on Sivers' laser solutions, lacking mature alternative sources in the short term, which positions it as a structural "bottleneck" in the entire ecosystem.Additionally, Sivers is the default reference laser design solution for GlobalFoundries, with relevant ecosystem participants including AMD and several CPO chip suppliers. Aside from vertically integrated companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom, most ASIC and commercial CPO projects are likely to revolve around Sivers.Serenity expects that as the CPO market size grows from nearly zero to between $81 billion and $91 billion in about a year and a half, Sivers is likely to replicate Lumentum's growth path and may grow into a company with a market value of around $75 billion in the coming years. However, the above views only represent the personal judgment of market analysts.
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