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FTX missed the $100 billion IPO of Anthropic

Anthropic has publicly submitted and updated its prospectus (S-1/A) to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to go public on Nasdaq under the stock ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley serving as lead underwriters. The latest amendment submitted on November 10 reveals an offering price range of $70 to $78 per share, with approximately 825 million shares of Class A common stock being offered, of which the company will issue about 801.35 million shares, existing shareholders will sell about 23.65 million shares, and underwriters will have an additional overallotment option of about 123.75 million shares. The company will also allocate approximately $26 billion of non-voting Class N shares to strategic investors such as Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, and TSMC, priced in line with the IPO price.The market expects pricing around November 18, with trading potentially starting on November 19. Based on approximately 1.309 billion shares post-offering, this corresponds to a valuation of about $917 billion to $1.02 trillion; accounting for options, restricted stock, and other fully diluted factors, the high-end valuation could reach about $1.4 trillion. Previously, the market anticipated a fundraising scale of about $100 billion, with a maximum valuation reaching $2 trillion, but the latest terms have narrowed.FTX-affiliated Alameda Research acquired approximately 7.84% of Anthropic for about $500 million between 2021 and 2022, corresponding to about 44.54 million shares of Series B. After FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in November 2022, the bankruptcy estate sold about 29.5 million shares in March 2024 for a total transaction amount of about $884 million, and in June sold another approximately 15 million shares, recovering about $452 million, totaling about $1.34 billion. According to the latest prospectus's fully diluted share count, the original ownership percentage has decreased to about 2.5%, corresponding to a theoretical value of about $3.11 billion to $3.47 billion based on the IPO price range.

Anthropic's roadshow disclosed a long-term operating profit margin target of 35% or above

On November 10, AI company Anthropic disclosed in its IPO roadshow video that the company believes it can achieve an adjusted operating profit margin of 35% or more in the long term, up from 15% in the third quarter of 2026, but did not provide a specific timeline for achieving this. Chief Financial Officer Krishna Rao stated that the company plans to improve its long-term cost structure by enhancing computing efficiency, increasing the proportion of directly leased chips and data centers, and expanding the share of its inference business. The ratio of computing and infrastructure expenses to revenue aims to decrease from 58% in the third quarter to 45% to 50%; the proportion of sales, marketing, and partnership expenses is expected to drop from 14% to 7% to 10%, and adjusted personnel and other operating expenses are expected to decrease from 13% to 7% to 10%.As of the end of September, there were over 11,900 enterprise customers that contributed more than $100,000 in revenue to Anthropic over the past 12 months, including over 1,900 customers contributing more than $1 million and about 250 customers contributing over $10 million. The net revenue retention rate for enterprise customers is approximately 900%, with more than half of the enterprise customers using both the Claude Platform and at least one Anthropic proprietary application. The roadshow also showcased application cases from clients such as Eli Lilly, Rakuten, Salesforce, and Walmart. The company measures computing efficiency by the ratio of revenue to computing and infrastructure expenses, which increased from 0.40 times in the first quarter of 2025 to 1.72 times in the third quarter of 2026, approximately 4.3 times higher than before, but lower than the second quarter's 2.08 times. The company stated that it used about $5 billion in short-term computing in the third quarter, with costs significantly higher than those for computing procured under multi-year agreements.In terms of actual performance, Anthropic reported third-quarter revenue of $16.956 billion, adjusted operating profit of $2.463 billion, and an adjusted operating profit margin of 15%, down from 19% in the second quarter. Under GAAP standards, the company still recorded an operating loss of $567 million in the third quarter. The adjusted metrics exclude expenses such as equity incentives and non-cash charitable donations and cannot be equated to GAAP earnings. As of the end of October, the company's annualized revenue run rate was approximately $81 billion, not the actual revenue achieved for the full year. Additionally, Anthropic disclosed long-term commitments for computing and infrastructure of about $90 billion, of which approximately $45.16 billion is expected to occur by the end of 2030, with related commitments maturing in the next 12 months amounting to about $7.07 billion. As of the end of the third quarter, the company held approximately $96 billion in cash and cash equivalents and about $36 billion in short-term investments.

Some investors of Anthropic plan to resell up to $500 million in IPO allocation shares

According to Bloomberg, some investors in Anthropic have introduced expected shares to new buyers before the IPO pricing. The brokerage firm JonesTrading is representing investors expected to receive a large allocation of shares worth up to $500 million, planning to charge an additional fee of 3% to 5% based on the final IPO issue price.Insiders say that these shares are not subject to lock-up agreements, but buyers must simultaneously obtain approval from both the seller and a bank participating in the IPO. Bloomberg points out that such arrangements allow investment institutions to reduce the risk of certain allocation positions while expanding their own investor base. Jon Jefferies, head of private markets at JonesTrading, did not comment on specific transactions but mentioned that he first saw such arrangements during the SpaceX IPO, and there are currently several similar transactions related to Anthropic being pitched in the market.Additionally, another seller is promoting over $1 billion worth of existing shares in Anthropic through a special purpose vehicle (SPV), with a valuation corresponding to $14 trillion to $16 trillion for the company, and also charging fees. Insiders say that the SPV has a single-layer structure and directly holds Anthropic shares, with the transaction involving issued shares and not relying on the seller's allocation in the IPO. Anthropic's IPO seeks a fully diluted valuation of about $14 trillion, and the company along with some investors aims to raise up to $90.4 billion through the IPO and private placements combined; if this scale is reached, it will exceed SpaceX's base issuance scale of $75 billion. An Anthropic spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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