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civ

Ray Dalio: The United States is on the brink of the fifth stage of the "big cycle," facing the risks of civil war and order collapse

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, published a lengthy analysis on social media, warning that the United States is in the fifth stage of his "Big Cycle" theory (the eve of order collapse), with multiple indicators suggesting that society may slide into the sixth stage (civil war and order collapse). His core judgments are based on:Deteriorating finances and conflicts: High government deficits and rising debt, along with historical highs in wealth and value gaps, constitute a "classic deadly combination."Populism and extremism: Increased political polarization, the silencing of moderates, media becoming a tool for partisan struggle, and the "loss of truth" in the public sphere.Escalation of violent incidents: Recent deaths of protesters in Minneapolis and conflicts between federal and state governments are typical signs of transitioning to the sixth stage.Systemic dysfunction: Legal and political systems are increasingly used as weapons in struggles, with rules giving way to the logic of "winning at all costs."Ray Dalio stated that the current situation is highly similar to the early period of order reorganization from 1930 to 1945. If consensus cannot be built through leadership and painful but necessary reforms are not implemented, society may repeat the mistakes of civil war/revolution. Investors and policymakers should recognize the forces of the cycle, promote productivity-oriented reforms (education, infrastructure, research), and replace "zero-sum struggle" with "win-win cooperation" to avoid an irreversible collapse of the system. Although the trajectory is difficult to change, it is still possible and necessary to mitigate conflicts and reshape broad prosperity through wise choices before sliding into the sixth stage.

Next week's macro outlook: The first non-farm payroll report after the standstill arrives, and the "civil war" within the Federal Reserve escalates

According to Jin Ten, as the relief brought by the historic U.S. government shutdown ends gradually, coupled with a wave of economic data about to flood the market and concerns over whether the Federal Reserve can successfully cut interest rates in December, cautious sentiment prevails on Wall Street this week. The upcoming return of U.S. economic data is likely to increase market volatility. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Tuesday 02:00: 2026 FOMC voter, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will host a fireside chat;Thursday 03:00: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, and FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams will speak;Friday 02:40: 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak;Friday 05:30: 2026 FOMC voter, Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on the economic outlook;Friday 20:30: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams will speak;Friday 22:00: 2026 FOMC voter, Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a panel discussion at the "2025 Swiss National Bank and its Observers" event.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that it will release the highly anticipated September employment situation report next Thursday (November 20). This report was originally scheduled for release on October 3. The agency also stated that it will release the inflation-adjusted real income data for September next Friday (November 21). In addition, Nvidia is set to release its earnings report next Wednesday.
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