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U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell, with market pricing indicating an increase in bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike following remarks by Fed Chair Waller.

Market expectations for the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy are heating up, with weak demand for Japan's two-year government bond auction, the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.97, lower than last time's 3.63 and the past 12 months' average of 3.74. The tail difference is 0.034, higher than last month's 0.007, marking the weakest since 2016. The government led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi supports an interest rate hike as early as September, with overnight index swaps indicating a probability of about 84% for a rate hike in September.

Analysis of the AI semiconductor and infrastructure cycle indicates that the demand for AI infrastructure will continue to exceed that of the internet era, as user penetration and per capita token are multiplied and converted into tokens, significantly raising the ceiling. User penetration has surpassed 50%, with growth primarily coming from the still-early per capita token; the median monthly AI spending per employee in U.S. companies is about $12, which could long-term approach around 10% of white-collar salaries, approximately $1,000 per month, leaving nearly two orders of magnitude of space in between. Unlike the flat subscriptions and extremely low marginal hardware consumption of the internet, the high costs of inference make the marginal cost of a single access higher, requiring greater infrastructure intensity.After developers program, the next ARR growth will still mainly come from broad programming: non-programmers use programming infrastructure to complete non-programming tasks across industries, with programming becoming the default execution kernel for agents. Tasks related to broad programming account for about 60% to 70% of ARR. As of June 2026, Codex accounted for 64% of the total output tokens from Codex and ChatGPT among OpenAI's enterprise clients; since February, Codex has seen a much higher weekly growth in verticals such as law, sales recruitment, and marketing compared to engineering. In Anthropic's revenue, narrow development/software accounts for about 40%, while finance and insurance exceed 20%, with law, life sciences, retail, and others also having considerable shares.The demand-side token growth logic remains, with a high overlap between funders and beneficiaries.

The U.S. Central Command stated that 50,000 stationed U.S. troops are executing a maritime blockade against Iran, and the U.S. military is ensuring the free passage of commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs analyst Jim Schneider stated in an interview with CNBC that Nvidia's latest announcement of its second-quarter performance for fiscal year 2027 exceeded market expectations, and the revenue guidance for the next quarter is also higher than analysts' estimates. Driven by the company's optimistic outlook for revenue growth in the next fiscal year, Nvidia's stock price rose about 4% in after-hours trading.Schneider pointed out that Nvidia expects revenue for fiscal year 2028 to still achieve about 70% growth, indicating that the demand for AI infrastructure remains strong. The current focus of the market has shifted from short-term performance to whether the AI computing investment cycle can be sustained, and whether Nvidia's high growth expectations for the next few years can be realized.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently stable around $80,000, with traders focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The annual seminar hosted by the Kansas City Fed opened on Wednesday, and Walsh will speak on Friday morning. Current inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, and long-term borrowing costs are near multi-year highs, with the Fed maintaining the benchmark interest rate range at 3.5%-3.75% in recent months.Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer of Risk Dimensions, expects Walsh to keep the option of raising interest rates but not to raise rates before the midterm elections. The July PCE inflation rate reached 3.7%, partly driven by rising energy prices following the Iran war. Samir Kerbage, Chief Investment Officer of Hashdex, stated that Bitcoin does not directly respond to the September interest rate decision but follows global liquidity and long-end yield curve trends, similar to the drivers of gold. Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced an increase in long-term Treasury bond purchases after the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, which pushed Bitcoin higher; Kerbage described this surge as "primarily a liquidity event."This year's Jackson Hole meeting focuses on financial innovation, payments, and policy, with stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and faster settlement systems becoming the discussion highlights. Kerbage believes that if Walsh views these technologies as part of the financial system rather than risks to be curtailed, the impact could extend beyond Bitcoin, with smart contract networks and protocols handling tokenized payments and settlements benefiting more directly from this shift.

Apple's first 2-nanometer M6 chip officially debuts, equipped with a 12-core CPU, 12-core GPU, and dual 16-core neural network engines, with unified memory bandwidth reaching up to 170GB per second, initially featured in the new Mac mini. This chip is manufactured by TSMC using a 2-nanometer process and is the first to adopt gate-all-around (GAA) nanosheet transistors, making it the world's first consumer-grade 2-nanometer chip.The supply chain is focused on the subsequent high-end M series packaging architecture. Based on the Fusion Architecture of the previous generation M5 Pro, M5 Max, and the four-die design of M5 Ultra, Apple chips have transitioned from a single large die to a modular design. Future M6 Pro, Max, or Ultra are expected to enhance advanced packaging requirements such as SoIC-MH and WMCM, increasing interconnect density with SoIC-MH and integrating logic, LPDDR memory, and high-speed I/O with WMCM.TSMC is actively preparing for expansion, with Zhunan AP6 as the main mass production base for SoIC, Longtan AP3 upgrading to WMCM, and Chiayi AP7 taking on related capacity. Analysts estimate that WMCM's monthly production capacity will reach about 60,000 units by the end of 2026 and over 120,000 units in 2027. Equipment manufacturers such as Hongshuo, Junhua, Yinneng, and material manufacturers Changxing, Xinying Materials, and Yongguang are expected to benefit.

NVIDIA (NVDA.O) Chief Financial Officer expects that next year, demand from AI labs will contribute about a quarter of the company's overall business.

Bubblemaps posted on platform X that attackers exploited a vulnerability in the Cosmos EVM shared module to steal $50 million worth of NES tokens, but ultimately only profited about $60,000. Previously, Cosmos Labs reported security vulnerabilities in its shared Cosmos EVM software, affecting multiple chains built on this module, including Nesa.According to disclosures, the main attacker with an address starting with 0x9AE7 previously spent $250,000 to purchase NES and cross-chain to Nesa Chain, then exploited the vulnerability to inflate the account balance by 200 times and transferred $50 million NES back to Ethereum, with the initial funds coming from Monero. The attacker then dispersed the tokens to multiple wallet addresses, exchanged NES for ETH on a DEX, and deposited the profits into a centralized exchange.Due to the rapid withdrawal of funds from the liquidity pool, most of the attacker’s exchange transactions encountered severe slippage, resulting in an actual expenditure of $255,000 to initiate the attack, cashing out only $315,000, with a net profit of about $60,000.Bubblemaps stated that although another Cosmos EVM chain had also suffered a similar attack of $1.4 million the day before, the differences in funding sources and operational methods suggest that the two incidents may have originated from different attackers. The report also mentioned that the price of NES tokens once plummeted by 90%, but has since significantly rebounded, with the team believing that the rebound is mainly due to arbitrage activities caused by price mismatches between DEX and CEX after the attack.

U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly after the data was released, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield currently flat at 4.635%.

The price of Bitcoin has retreated after a cumulative increase of 23% over the past 7 days, currently maintaining around $79,000, with a drop of about 1.2% in the past 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 index has fallen by 2.1% in the past 24 hours. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me has risen from 27 to 74 in less than two weeks, followed by a slight retreat.However, underlying demand remains strong. According to SoSoValue data, the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $314 million on Tuesday, marking the seventh consecutive day of net inflows, bringing the cumulative net inflow for August to over $3 billion. Mercado Bitcoin research analyst Pedro Fontes views $82,000 and $85,000 as the next resistance levels and believes that some consolidation after such a vertical rise is natural.In terms of derivatives data, the taker long-short trading volume ratio has turned bearish, with shorts accounting for 51.64% of the 24-hour volume; Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped below 700,000 BTC, and the spot price has retreated to $78,500. The combination of these factors indicates that traders are closing positions rather than aggressively adding shorts. Traders on Deribit are chasing call options with strike prices ranging from $82,000 to $100,000. SUI futures open interest has reached a historical high of 838 million contracts, but its spot price has fallen over 5% in the past 24 hours, indicating that short positions are accumulating.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the on-chain capital flow of Bitcoin showed directional improvement in the second half of August. The realized market cap relative net position change rose to +0.1% on August 24, marking the first positive shift since May 28, and has further increased to +0.21% as of today, indicating that the nearly three-month net capital outflow status has ended.Meanwhile, the 30-day apparent demand/new supply ratio for Bitcoin has been above 1 for six consecutive days, with the latest figure at 2.52, meaning the 30-day apparent demand is approximately 2.5 times the new BTC issuance during the same period. This indicator had dropped to -6.93 on August 2 and briefly rose to 3.16 on August 21. However, the absolute strength of both indicators remains relatively low. Since 2024, the median for periods of positive realized market cap has been +3.24%, while the current +0.21% is only at the lowest 3%-4% of positive samples; the historical median for the apparent demand ratio above 1 is 7.65, and the current 2.52 is also at the lowest 10%. It is believed that the more important signal currently is that the direction of capital flow has shifted from outflow to slight inflow, and demand has once again exceeded new supply, but a strong new demand cycle cannot yet be confirmed. Future observations are needed to see if the realized market cap can remain positive and if the apparent demand can further expand.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, 14.65 million EIGEN, worth 3.09 million dollars, that Polychain redeemed from staking 3 months ago, was transferred to Coinbase Prime 6 hours ago.Out of the 131.8 million EIGEN redeemed by Polychain at the end of May, 46.86 million EIGEN was re-staked 1 month ago, 14.65 million EIGEN was transferred to Coinbase Prime today, and the remaining 70.29 million EIGEN is still stored in the address.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "BTC reaching $85,000 during the remaining period of August" on Polymarket has risen to 44%, an increase of 26% in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of it reaching $90,000 has risen to 12%, an increase of 6% in 24 hours.According to the settlement rules, this market is based on the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Within the specified month in the title (from 00:00 on the 1st of the month to 23:59 on the last day, Eastern Time), if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick is equal to or higher than the specified price in the title, it will be settled as Yes immediately; otherwise, it will be No. This market only considers the 1-minute candlestick High price of Binance BTC/USDT, and prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are not included.

Monad officially released a new MIP (Monad Improvement Proposal), themed around Flexible and Upgradeable Account Authentication. The core of this proposal is to allow accounts to change keys without changing addresses, thereby enhancing the flexibility and security of account management.Through this mechanism, accounts can smoothly upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptographic schemes to address potential threats posed by future quantum computing. The proposal has been officially announced, and the community can further review relevant technical details and discussions.

BitcoinTreasuries.NET reported that Strive's SATA expects to raise enough funds to purchase over 130 bitcoins, with 90 minutes remaining until the transaction ends.Since returning to par value, SATA's trading volume has exceeded $125 million in the past three days.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, the largest long position address on-chain for Ethereum has started to take profits. This address is associated with BIT and reduced its holdings by 14,000 ETH, approximately worth 34.15 million USD, 5 minutes ago.The remaining position size is about 25.24 million USD, with an average opening price of 2,340.86 USD, and the remaining position has an unrealized profit of about 1.83 million USD.This address has received funds transferred from Matrixport (now renamed BIT) multiple times and is currently the largest long position on-chain for ETH, with two associated addresses collaborating to build the position; this address is the main address.

Strive CEO Matt Cole stated that the BTC/gold ratio is sending a strong signal, indicating that the next Bitcoin cycle could be the strongest in history.Currently, there are two major structural factors: the long-term structural depreciation of the dollar, and Bitcoin has never experienced a true secular dollar collapse; and in an AI-driven prosperous world, capital will increasingly chase "scarce assets" that cannot be replicated. If Bitcoin can perform stronger relative to gold, it will attract a disproportionate inflow of funds, creating a positive feedback loop.

According to monitoring, "Maji" brother Huang Licheng has started to reduce his ETH long positions to take profits, with a slight reduction of about 1.02 million USD this time. The remaining ETH long positions are still valued at 68.77 million USD, with an opening price of 2,357 USD and a liquidation price of 2,189.8 USD, resulting in an unrealized profit of 1.59 million USD on the remaining positions.Maji also holds HYPE long positions, with a position value of about 20 million USD and an average entry price of 79.35 USD; he holds PUMP long positions, with a position value of about 11 million USD and an average entry price of 0.00524 USD.

Bitcoin recently rose to a monthly high, with Bitfinex analysts stating that this round of market activity is primarily driven by spot buying and short covering, rather than new leveraged funds, thus providing a longer duration compared to typical short squeeze scenarios. As investors who bought Bitcoin in the past five months are currently in a profit state, the main risk of the current upward trend comes from profit-taking chips flowing into trading platforms.Bitfinex believes that the U.S. Treasury's announcement on August 19 to expand the scale of long-term bond repurchases is an important factor driving the recent market activity. The initial phase of this rise was indeed driven by short liquidations. On the same day, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $297.6 million. However, the subsequent price increase mainly came from spot buying. From the position structure, while Bitcoin prices rose by 10% to 11%, open interest (OI) only increased by about 4%, indicating that spot demand and short covering played a major role, while the impact of leveraged funds was limited.Bitfinex pointed out that the $68,000 to $69,000 range is currently an important support level, close to the average cost of buyers over the past five months. If Bitcoin maintains above this level, it will keep these investors in a profitable state, reducing the pressure of previously trapped chips selling during rebounds. In terms of funds, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $606.29 million on August 20, the largest single-day inflow since May 1, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about 82%. Bitfinex stated that if fund inflows continue for a week, it will further strengthen the market demand structure.However, Bitfinex warns that the current biggest risk is a large amount of profitable Bitcoin flowing into trading platforms, which could trigger the largest profit-taking market since 2026. Analysts indicate that if real yields rise again to levels that previously suppressed Bitcoin from falling below $65,000, macro factors could still quickly impact the market.