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BTC $74,346.31 -0.22%
ETH $2,330.11 -1.60%
BNB $615.83 -0.01%
XRP $1.36 -0.53%
SOL $83.45 -2.86%
TRX $0.3239 +0.99%
DOGE $0.0932 -0.47%
ADA $0.2401 -2.09%
BCH $435.25 -0.10%
LINK $9.07 -1.71%
HYPE $43.84 -2.23%
AAVE $100.32 -1.31%
SUI $0.9401 -1.10%
XLM $0.1555 +0.26%
ZEC $356.11 -0.58%
BTC $74,346.31 -0.22%
ETH $2,330.11 -1.60%
BNB $615.83 -0.01%
XRP $1.36 -0.53%
SOL $83.45 -2.86%
TRX $0.3239 +0.99%
DOGE $0.0932 -0.47%
ADA $0.2401 -2.09%
BCH $435.25 -0.10%
LINK $9.07 -1.71%
HYPE $43.84 -2.23%
AAVE $100.32 -1.31%
SUI $0.9401 -1.10%
XLM $0.1555 +0.26%
ZEC $356.11 -0.58%

exit

Analysis: The average cost of BTC loss-making positions is $93,600, and a large number of high-position trapped positions have been cut and exited

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin chips has currently fallen below $100,000, now at only $93,600. This means that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market average breakeven point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-position trapped chips chose to cut losses and exit, lowering the average cost of overall floating loss chips.It is also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC, while in the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has exceeded 2 at least. When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, at which point the price of BTC is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this round would need to drop to $46,800, but historical patterns may not always hold true. This bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the market related to whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first on Polymarket, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

Aave founder: RWA is the biggest opportunity for DeFi in recent times, but we must be wary of institutions using DeFi as a liquidity exit channel

Aave founder Stani.eth posted on the X platform, stating, "The private credit market is facing pressure in a high-interest-rate environment. Since the Federal Reserve began its rate hike cycle in 2022, interest rates have rapidly risen above 5% and remained high, leading to a significant increase in capital costs for borrowing businesses and consumers.Recent data shows that several funds have experienced stock price declines and redemption pressures, such as Blue Owl Capital, which has dropped about 50% over the past year, and Blackstone's BCRED, which is facing approximately $3.7 billion in redemption requests in Q1 2026. The average BDC is trading at about a 20% discount, with yields of 10-11%, and some funds have seen default rates rise to 9%.Stani.eth proposed three risk scenarios: a single fund default can be absorbed by the system, multiple fund defaults may trigger a downturn in the credit cycle, and a complete collapse could lead to systemic risk. However, the overall private credit market has a total size of about $1.8-2 trillion, making a single fund default unlikely to cause a systemic crisis.For DeFi investors, the biggest risk is that many retail users do not understand the risks involved before putting funds into high-yield RWA. I believe RWA is the biggest opportunity for DeFi in the near term. However, my biggest concern is that institutional speculators may view DeFi as a channel to offload illiquid and distressed products that Wall Street has lost confidence in, effectively using DeFi participants as an exit liquidity.However, well-functioning on-chain private credit can provide advantages that traditional finance cannot reach. DeFi can enforce redemption windows, withdrawal limits, collateral ratios, and profit distribution rules through smart contracts, achieving transparent and immutable execution, avoiding arbitrary tightening of redemption policies by traditional fund managers. Through carefully structured RWA projects, transparent and secure investment channels can be provided between traditional finance and on-chain markets. DeFi should not become a source of exit liquidity for Wall Street."
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