Signal

4E: BTC fluctuates at a high level, with on-chain accumulation resonating with macro signals in the market

ChainCatcher message, according to 4E observations, as of June 30, 2025, 15:00 (UTC +8), Bitcoin (BTC) is reported at $107,631, maintaining a fluctuation range between $106,300 and $108,700 for nearly 72 hours, with volatility stabilizing. Ethereum (ETH) has slightly risen to $2,500, while Solana and Cardano have also moved higher, bringing the total market capitalization of the crypto market to approximately $3.28 trillion.On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin balance on exchanges has dropped to a historical low, indicating that long-term funds continue to accumulate, supporting the market's bottom structure. Meanwhile, the options expiration on Deribit last Friday did not have a significant impact on the market, and short-term pressure has been alleviated.On the macro front, recent statements from Federal Reserve officials remain dovish, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts in July or September. The weakening dollar index and falling U.S. Treasury yields provide some support for crypto assets. Additionally, a recent report from the World Bank pointed out that while crypto assets have liquidity advantages, they are not yet suitable to become official reserves, reflecting that their institutional attributes are still developing.Overall, BTC is at the intersection of technical consolidation and macro policy dynamics, with the market direction still unclear, but strong bottom support and stable funding conditions.4E reminds investors: short-term market volatility still exists, and operations should focus on policy dynamics and capital flows, maintaining prudent position management.

4E: Bitcoin fluctuates at a high level, with risk aversion and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve suppressing the market

ChainCatcher message, as of June 19, 2025, 14:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin is at $105,124, with limited fluctuations in the past 48 hours, maintaining between $103,000 and $108,000. The market continues to watch the developments in the Middle East. Bloomberg reports that the U.S. may be preparing to intervene in the conflict between Israel and Iran, triggering a rise in risk-averse sentiment, putting slight pressure on crypto assets.Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in its latest policy statement and lowered the expectation for rate cuts in 2026. Chairman Powell emphasized a "data-driven" approach and remained cautious about short-term easing expectations, which the market generally interpreted as a hawkish stance. As a result, risk assets came under pressure, gold rose, and the crypto market followed with a correction.Ethereum is at $2,525, down about 0.5% over the past 48 hours; Cardano and Solana both fell over 2.5%, while meme coins like Dogecoin and $TRUMP also declined. Overall market risk appetite has decreased, and trading volume has shrunk.On the policy front, Trump expressed support for the stablecoin regulation bill GENIUS and urged the House of Representatives to pass it as soon as possible. Although this news boosted crypto-related stocks like Circle, overall market sentiment remains conservative. 4E reminds that the current crypto market is at the intersection of macro uncertainty and regulatory transition, with short-term trends still dominated by policy and geopolitical risks. Investors should pay attention to risks and respond cautiously to market fluctuations.

4E: BTC stabilizes at $105,000, market cautiously awaits signals from the Federal Reserve

ChainCatcher message, as of June 9, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently around $105,596, with a slight increase over the past 24 hours, and a daily fluctuation range of $105,110 to $106,368. The price remains above key support but has failed to effectively break through the $106,500 resistance, indicating that the market is still in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.The overall cryptocurrency market has seen a mild rebound, with a total market capitalization maintaining around $3.3 trillion. Ethereum (ETH) is oscillating around $2,500, while Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX) have increased by about 1%-2%. Major cryptocurrencies are showing weak trends, and trading volume has not significantly increased, reflecting low investor risk appetite.On the macro front, the market is focused on the upcoming U.S. May non-farm payroll and CPI data to be released this week. If the data is weak, it will strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, providing support for crypto assets. Conversely, if inflation or employment is higher than expected, it may suppress market upward momentum in the short term.Additionally, there has been some outflow of funds from certain Bitcoin ETFs recently, indicating a cautious sentiment among institutions, which may limit price upside in the short term.Overall, Bitcoin's short-term trend has entered a technical consolidation phase, with the market awaiting guidance from Federal Reserve policy. Investors are advised to pay attention to key macro data, manage their positions wisely, and be cautious of false breakouts and sudden volatility.
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