4e

According to 4E observations, Bitcoin surged past $93,000 on Tuesday night, quickly recovering all losses caused by previous macro shocks. This strong rebound was mainly driven by two factors:First, the Japanese 10-year government bond auction became a key stabilizer for global risk assets. The yield rose to 1.88% before the auction, reaching a 17-year high, attracting large funds such as pension funds. The market generally believes that "a rate hike in December is basically a done deal," boosting the stocks of major banks like MUFG and SMFG. Previously, due to Kazuo Ueda's hints at a rate hike, the Japanese bond market experienced significant volatility, triggering a chain reaction in global risk assets, with Bitcoin once plummeting over 7%.Second, the market widely bets that Hasset has been "internally confirmed" to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Although the growth and inflation outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, the short-term policy inclination towards "dovishness" has boosted both the U.S. stock market and interest rate cut expectations, providing a rebound momentum for BTC.Grayscale's latest report indicates that the 30% adjustment in Bitcoin since early October is a normal occurrence in a bull market, with the historical average pullback being 30%. Grayscale expects BTC to reach new highs next year, rather than returning to a "four-year cycle" decline.Musk has once again warned that the U.S. $38.3 trillion debt could trigger severe volatility in Bitcoin. He stated that the U.S. is heading towards a "debt crisis" and emphasized that Bitcoin, based on its energy attributes, "cannot be created through legislation." Musk predicts that AI will drive the growth rate of goods and services output to exceed the growth of money supply within three years, potentially leading to deflation and interest rates returning to zero. He also reiterated Bitcoin's long-term strategic position, noting that while its participation in the crypto market has fallen below the pandemic peak, it continues to receive support.4E reminds investors: The rapid reversal of macro policy expectations and fluctuations in the bond market remain key variables dominating short-term trends. The strength of BTC's recovery after this round of adjustments still depends on policy signals, liquidity environment, and changes in the behavior of long-term holders. It is advisable to maintain a sense of rhythm and risk boundaries.

According to 4E observations, market sentiment suddenly turned cold on December 1, with Bitcoin briefly dropping to $83,786, a nearly 30% decline from the early October peak. The core trigger came from a sharp rise in expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan: traders priced in a 76% chance of a rate hike in December, and nearly 90% for January next year. After Ueda Kazuo signaled "preemptive tightening," Japan's two-year government bond yield rose to a 16-year high, and funds began to rapidly adjust for a potential policy shift. The rate hike expectations have backfired on global risk assets, with yen carry trades seen as a potential systemic risk point—markets still remember the turmoil caused by the yen's sharp rise in August this year, which triggered a global chain sell-off.Another heavy blow came from MicroStrategy (MSTR). The company announced a cash reserve of $1.44 billion and for the first time acknowledged the possibility of selling Bitcoin under certain conditions, shaking its core narrative of "never selling." The stock plummeted by 12% at one point. Although it still increased its holdings by 130 BTC last week, the pressure from debt combined with market turbulence has made sentiment more sensitive.On the macro front, the probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 87.6%, and QT will officially end today. Over the past two years, QT has withdrawn more than $2 trillion in liquidity, and stopping the balance sheet reduction is seen as a key event for the current liquidity bottom, which may help ease short-term market panic.4E Commentary: The expectations of a rate hike in Japan and MSTR's "selling" hint have triggered a rapid repricing of sentiment, compounded by declining trading volumes and the looming risk of yen carry trades, leaving the short-term market in a fragile range. The end of QT by the Federal Reserve is one of the few positive signals, which will determine whether risk assets can enter a "policy buffer period." A restoration of risk appetite will need to wait for the implementation of Japanese policies and a stabilization signal from BTC to resonate.

According to 4E observations, Bitcoin has stabilized after a slight rebound, with the current recovery leaning more towards improved risk sentiment rather than internal drivers within the crypto sector. The stock market has also seen a slight increase, with the market expecting an approximately 85% chance of a rate cut in December. However, high inflation and weak employment data continue to weigh on the market, and Federal Reserve officials have expressed a slightly dovish stance, though with limited impact. This week, macro attention will shift to unemployment claims and ADP employment data. Meanwhile, AI-related credit spreads and CDS have continued to rise, indicating that funds are reassessing the strongest trading logic from the past year.The funding situation remains weak, with continued outflows from crypto ETFs and net liquidations of asset products, causing several net values to fall below $1 per unit, significantly increasing risk aversion. Strategy has once again taken center stage in public discourse, as Bitcoin reserves approach breakeven and stock prices have been placed on the MSCI delisting watchlist, potentially becoming a key variable in the market before the end of the year. Currently, the correlation between BTC and AI tech stocks has increased, while the fear and greed index has declined, indicating limited short-term sentiment recovery.In terms of options structure, demand for put protection remains strong, although open interest leans towards bullish positions, implied volatility and positions have both decreased, and positions are starting to lighten. If a rebound occurs near 95,000 USDT, it may face selling pressure from ETF redemptions, continuing the range-bound logic; the main support range is between 80,000 and 82,000 USD, and a break below this could trigger systemic stop-loss liquidity.Michael Saylor has once again released the BTC Tracker. Historically, Strategy tends to disclose increased holdings the day after this signal appears, forming a clear communication pattern: first, a signal is thrown, then purchases are announced, shaping ongoing bullish sentiment and expectations for fund inflows.4E reminds investors: the short-term BTC trend is still driven by macro expectations, fund inflows and outflows, and the resonance of options structure, with the rebound stemming more from external risk appetite rather than improvements in on-chain fundamentals. A bottom still requires confirmation from funds, and sentiment recovery will depend on ETF flows and Strategy dynamics. It is advisable to pay attention to this week's employment data and the performance of spot liquidity.

According to 4E observations, a rare long and short whale counterpart appeared in the BTC market during Thanksgiving. Lookonchain monitoring shows that whale 0x0ddf9 opened a 3x BTC short position at $89,765.6, with a scale of $91 million (1,000 BTC), currently facing an unrealized loss of about $1.16 million; meanwhile, new wallet 0x2c26 opened a 20x long position at $90,278.7, with a scale of $51.4 million (563.68 BTC), currently facing an unrealized gain of about $524,000. The high-leverage long and short hedging sets the stage for volatility during the holiday period.The on-chain funding situation remains active. OnchainLens shows that Bitmine purchased 14,618 ETH from BitGo, with a total value of $44.34 million, continuing the trend of institutional asset allocation leaning towards ETH. The BTC reserve side has also strengthened—data indicates that the top 100 listed treasury holdings collectively hold 1,058,581 BTC, with 9 increasing their holdings and only 1 reducing them in the past 7 days, indicating that long-term funds are still steadily accumulating.On the investment side, structural differentiation has emerged. According to SolanaFloor monitoring, the Solana ETF ended 22 consecutive days of net inflow, with a net outflow of $8.2 million yesterday for the first time; among them, 21Shares saw significant outflows, while Bitwise still had a net inflow of $13.3 million. Signs of rotation in mainline funds have strengthened, and investors' short-term risk appetite remains in a state of repeated contention.4E reminds investors: the increase in BTC whale counterpart positions intensifies short-term volatility, and the ETF funding structure and stablecoin regulatory progress will become key observation points for sentiment adjustment in the future. Prioritize stable positions; rhythm is more important than direction.

According to 4E observations, an "ancient whale that has interacted with the Ethereum Foundation" has significantly flowed funds back on-chain. Since yesterday, its address has purchased 7,318 ETH at an average price of $3,016, amounting to approximately $22.07 million. This address previously sold 12,575 ETH at last August's peak, and its total holdings have now rebounded to 10,529 ETH, indicating that deep participants are repositioning.On the regulatory front, the U.S. Nasdaq ISE has proposed to significantly raise the options position limit for BlackRock's IBIT from 250,000 to 1 million, reflecting strong expectations for the demand for spot Bitcoin ETF derivatives; the SEC has released a revised 2025 plan, pointing towards clearer crypto regulations, safe harbor provisions, and DLT-specific rules, clearly promoting the better integration of digital assets into traditional market structures.In terms of market sentiment, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee has softened his previous prediction of "Bitcoin at $250,000 by year-end" to "expected to return above $100,000," but still believes that setting a new high is possible; on the institutional side, Ark Invest has increased its holdings by over $16 million in Coinbase and CoreWeave, with large capital continuing to bet on crypto and AI infrastructure.4E Commentary: The return of ancient whales, the relaxation of ETF derivatives, the trend towards structured regulation, and continued institutional buying collectively form a mildly bullish signal. The "expectation gap" for Bitcoin has shifted from extreme optimism to rational optimism, while Ethereum is regaining attention from on-chain deep players. The funding and regulatory environment are improving simultaneously, and the market is entering a phase of "policy warmth, stable funds, and rising sentiment" resonating with three factors.

According to 4E observations, the risk of long positions held by the most watched "CZ counterpart giant whales" on-chain is rapidly easing. Their ETH long positions, which fell to $2623 last week, were only $28 away from the liquidation price of $2595, resulting in a floating loss of $44 million. Now, the floating loss has shrunk to $16.13 million, recovering $27.87 million. To fully break even, the position still requires ETH to rebound to $3200.On the other side, there has been a rare movement from "ancient giants" on-chain. A whale that holds 254,900 ETH obtained from early ICOs has seemingly sold 20,000 ETH after eight months, valued at approximately $58.14 million, with an entry cost of only $0.31. The whale recently deposited 20,000 ETH into FalcoinX at a price of $2906 and currently still holds 3,070 ETH on-chain.On the staking side, SharpLink (SBET) added 443 ETH staking rewards in the past week, accumulating a total of 7,846 ETH since June this year, indicating that the ETH staking yield structure remains robust.In public opinion, Arca CIO Jeff Dorman once again refuted the rumor that "Strategy (MSTR) was forced to sell BTC," emphasizing that unless BTC falls to a level that makes selling meaningless, Strategy does not need to sell assets at all, and the market rumors are largely misunderstandings.4E Commentary: The combination of four signals—whales reducing losses, ancient whales cashing out, stable staking yields, and institutional refutations—indicates that current ETH sentiment is shifting from extreme pessimism to neutrality. Short-term volatility remains high, but the structural risks on-chain are decreasing, and the market is re-entering a "cautiously bullish" observation window.

According to 4E observations, the on-chain whale "Brother Ma Ji" has once again significantly increased its position. After adding 1 million USDC, it opened a long position of approximately 13.35 million USD in ETH at 2883 USD and increased its position by 830,000 USD in HYPE. The current floating profit of the ETH position is about 280,000 USD, with a liquidation price of 2716 USD, showing a clear short-term bullish tendency.On the institutional side, last week, global listed companies cumulatively net bought 13.4 million USD in BTC, but both Strategy and Metaplanet remain cautious. Notably, Strategy's STRC preferred shares rebounded after a previous correction and are currently only 2.5% lower than the 100 USD peg price, indicating a partial recovery of market confidence.Mining giant Bitmine continues to accumulate aggressively, purchasing another 69,822 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 3.63 million ETH, accounting for 3% of the total ETH supply. Its average cost is 3988 USD, with a current paper loss of about 280 million USD (-29.6%), reflecting the mining company's firm belief in the medium to long-term valuation of ETH.On the on-chain capital allocation side, Ondo Finance announced a 25 million USD investment in the YLDS stablecoin issued by Figure's FCC to enhance the yield strategy of its flagship tokenized US Treasury fund OUSG. Currently, OUSG's locked position has surpassed 780 million USD, with allocations including traditional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity.4E Commentary: The whales and mining companies continue to increase their positions, while institutions remain cautious, leading to a market pattern of "on-chain risk-taking, secondary market stability." The inflow of USDC and heavy ETH positions release a bullish signal, while the slowdown in institutional buying suggests that overall risk appetite has not fully recovered, and short-term trends may primarily maintain a range-bound fluctuation.

According to 4E observations, the recent large-scale sell-off in the cryptocurrency market is significantly impacting the Trump family's asset portfolio. The family's overall wealth has shrunk from about $7.7 billion to approximately $6.7 billion since early September, primarily due to their expanding cryptocurrency investment portfolio. Data shows that the Trump meme coin has dropped about 25% since August, Eric Trump's stake in a Bitcoin mining company has halved in value, and Trump Media's stock price has fallen to historic lows, causing the family's wealth to evaporate by about $800 million.The price of the family project WLFI's token has fallen from $0.26 to about $0.15, resulting in a paper loss of nearly $3 billion; although the tokens are locked up and not included in the Bloomberg Wealth Index, the valuation has significantly decreased. The family's previous sale of WLFI tokens to Alt5 Sigma generated about $900 million in revenue, but Alt5's stock price subsequently plummeted by 75%, leading to an unrealized loss of $220 million on related holdings.Additionally, the stock price of ABTC, co-founded by Eric Trump and Hut 8, has fallen over 50% from its peak, causing his personal holdings to evaporate by about $330 million. After some unlocking of the Trump meme coin, although the family's holdings increased, the market price decline resulted in a paper loss of approximately $117 million.4E comments: The Trump family's cryptocurrency strategy shows a clear pattern of "high volatility + strong leveraged exposure," with their revenue model relying more on initial cash flow from token issuance rather than stable growth in secondary market value. During periods of severe market downturns, such "brand-driven crypto assets" exhibit weak resilience, leading to a significant reduction in family wealth. In the short term, if market sentiment cannot quickly recover, Trump-related assets may continue to face pressure.

According to 4E observations, on Thursday, early on-chain whale Owen Gunden transferred the last 2,499 bitcoins (approximately $228 million) to Kraken, marking the completion of his cumulative sell-off of about 11,000 BTC (approximately $1.3 billion) since October 21. Gunden is an early arbitrage trader who was active on Tradehill and Mt.Gox, and he had previously ranked among the top ten on-chain billionaires. This round of liquidation lasted for more than a month, ultimately reducing his bitcoin holdings to zero.This selling pressure occurred at a time when retail sentiment was extremely pessimistic. The CryptoQuant bull market index has dropped to 20/100, the most pessimistic range of this cycle; since November, there has been a net outflow of $2.8 billion from bitcoin ETFs, intensifying concerns about the end of the bull market.However, contrary to retail panic, institutions are increasing their holdings against the trend. The latest 13-F disclosures show that the proportion of institutional holdings in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs has surged from 27% in Q2 2024 to 40%. Analyst Root pointed out that this figure is still a "conservative estimate," as only institutions with AUM exceeding $100 million are required to report. Despite recent outflows from ETFs, the increase in institutional holdings indicates that some long-term funds are choosing to hold firm or even add to their positions during the adjustment.Currently, the BTC price is approximately $85,823. The market structure shows a typical divergence:• Retail side → Panic selling, rising exit sentiment• Institutional side → Increasing ETF allocation during the adjustment4E Commentary: The concentrated selling pressure from early whales and the structural increase in institutional allocation together shape the current market's "emotional low point - capital turnover" phase. Short-term volatility may still amplify, but changes in capital flow and holding structure will have a more profound impact on the future market direction.

According to 4E observations, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will resume the release of the delayed September non-farm payroll report this Thursday due to the government shutdown, ending a two-month period of official data silence. However, this data is considered "stale information" due to its lag, and its market impact may be relatively limited.The Dow Jones consensus expects approximately 50,000 new jobs in September, up from the original 22,000 in August, but still reflecting a weak labor market; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with wage growth at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, essentially unchanged from previous values. RSM Chief Economist Brusuelas believes that the revisions for September and the previous two months may be slightly better than expected, but overall still lack strength.The impact of the shutdown on the data system is more profound. The BLS confirmed that it will combine the October and November employment reports for release on December 16, and the unemployment rate for October will not be released separately; job openings (JOLTS) data for September and October will also be combined. Previously, only the CPI was released as scheduled during the shutdown due to its use in adjusting social security benefits. Brusuelas stated that the economy is entering a "period of general uncertainty," and it may take until February next year to truly understand the labor market situation.Despite the absence of official data, there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding "insufficient information." Governor Waller emphasized that policy-making is not "blind flying," and in support of a rate cut in December, he stated that current alternative indicators are sufficient to judge the economic direction. Goldman Sachs expects 80,000 new jobs in September, but a reduction of 50,000 in October may occur due to the expiration of related delayed resignation plans from the Department of Efficiency, and it believes the unemployment rate may rise due to temporary layoffs.Thursday's report will also include revised data for July and August, with both Goldman Sachs and RSM expecting upward revisions.4E Commentary: While the resumption of non-farm payroll releases can partially fill the data gap, its lagging nature limits its guiding value for policy and the market. In the short term, the market will still seek direction amid "incomplete information + expectation divergence," with macro visibility remaining low.

According to 4E observations, the latest review priorities announced by the U.S. SEC for the fiscal year 2026 do not specifically mention cryptocurrencies, which stands in stark contrast to the "strong regulation" approach of the past few years. New Chairman Paul Atkins emphasized that reviews should not become a "trap-like" process, shifting the focus to core areas such as fiduciary duties, custody, and customer protection, which the market generally interprets as a signal of a more lenient regulatory attitude.On the market side, Kraken announced the completion of an $800 million financing round, reaching a valuation of $20 billion, and received a $200 million strategic investment from Citadel Securities, providing capital and market structure support for its 2026 IPO. Recently, Kraken has expanded its derivatives business through acquisitions, maintaining growth in trading volume and revenue, with significantly enhanced institutional confidence.In terms of technological development, the Ethereum Foundation proposed the "Ethereum Interop Layer (EIL)," aimed at achieving a unified user experience across L2s, allowing all layer two networks to operate as smoothly as a single chain. Solutions built on ERC-4337 enable users to complete cross-chain operations with a single signature, eliminating the need for bridging or intermediaries, directly addressing the current fragmentation issues of L2s, and may become a key infrastructure direction for the Ethereum ecosystem in the coming years.Traditional finance is also accelerating its on-chain transformation. HSBC announced it will open tokenized deposit services to clients in the U.S. and the UAE, enabling cross-border fund settlements in seconds and 24/7 availability, providing large enterprises with more efficient liquidity management tools. Tether has strategically invested in the Bitcoin-collateralized lending platform Ledn, which is rapidly growing its loan volume in 2025, becoming a leader in the crypto lending space.4E Commentary: The regulatory side shows signs of moderation, institutions continue to increase their stakes, technological infrastructure breakthroughs accelerate alongside the on-chain transformation of traditional finance, and the crypto industry still demonstrates structural resilience amidst short-term market fluctuations. The current level of construction may solidify the underlying foundation for the next cycle.

According to 4E observations, Bitcoin is entering an extreme panic zone, having fallen below $91,000 on the morning of November 18, showing a free-fall decline. Protective demand in the options market has surged sharply, with total bets on put contracts with strike prices of $90,000, $85,000, and even $80,000 expiring at the end of November exceeding $740 million, indicating that traders are preparing for deeper declines in advance.Chris Newhouse, research director at Ergonia, pointed out that positions bought in the past six months have largely become deeply trapped, and the buying power of bullish sentiment has significantly weakened. The CoinMarketCap sentiment index shows that the market is in "extreme fear," with many investors suffering heavy losses and unable to add positions, yet unwilling to cut losses, creating a downward price inertia.The pressure is most concentrated on the so-called "crypto treasury companies." Companies that have hoarded coins this year have become the focus of selling risks. Although Michael Saylor's Strategy continues to increase its holdings of $835 million in BTC, other peers are facing balance sheet pressures and are forced to consider selling assets. Greg Magadini from Amberdata stated that this selling pressure is particularly impacting Ethereum, with many large ETH treasury companies generally in a state of loss, and ETH has fallen to $2,975, down 24% since early October.Macroeconomic factors further deteriorate risk appetite. The cooling expectations for Fed rate cuts and discussions about the AI bubble are jointly suppressing the market. Kaiko analysts emphasize that these two major factors will continue to pose significant resistance until the end of the year. Since early October, the crypto market has erased about $19 billion in market value, with open interest in futures continuing to decline, and the holdings of small-cap tokens like Solana have been halved. Kraken economist Perfumo pointed out that the current market panic is more rooted in macro anxiety rather than structural issues within the crypto industry.4E Commentary: The speed of BTC's breakdown reflects the chain-clearing effect under liquidity tightening, with the options market having already bet on the $80,000 range. The short-term sentiment is weak, treasury selling pressure and macro headwinds are overlapping, and the market needs to be wary of a secondary deep decline, but the core risk comes from macro factors rather than the crypto fundamentals themselves.

In the context of an intensified crypto bear market and a cooling risk appetite, Bitcoin has completely erased all gains since the end of last year. In the early hours of Monday, BTC fell below $93,600, reaching below the opening price at the beginning of the year. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan pointed out that major buyers—including ETF allocators and institutional debt allocators—have been continuously withdrawing over the past month, leading to the emergence of the capital outflow effect that originally supported BTC's all-time highs. In just 41 days, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has evaporated by $1.1 trillion. Although the current liquidation scale is about 10% lower than the peak on October 10, the risk sentiment remains fragile.At the same time, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks has rapidly increased. Data from the Kobeissi Letter shows that the 30-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has risen to 0.80, a new high since 2022, with a five-year correlation also reaching 0.54. Bitcoin is behaving more like a "high-beta tech stock" rather than an independent macro hedge asset.While sentiment is under pressure, external structural changes are also worth noting. The global ETF issuance reached 137 new funds in October, with 15 new cryptocurrency ETFs, more than double that of September. The total number of global ETFs issued this year has reached 918, and it is expected to exceed 1,100 for the entire year, setting a new historical record.In terms of market views, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee emphasized that although BTC has experienced multiple rounds of deep declines, it is still in a super cycle level over the past decade, and he believes Ethereum is entering a similar path. Arete Capital partner McKenna pointed out that BTC may have a short-term downside risk of up to 31%, with key support levels at $96,200, $93,300, and the $86,000-$91,000 range. He expects that it may be difficult to reach new highs within 2025, but with institutional accumulation and ETF capital driving it, BTC is expected to break through $200,000 before the end of Trump's term.4E reminds investors: The market is currently under "triple pressure" from macro risk aversion, capital withdrawal, and increased correlation with tech stocks. The mid-to-long-term logic for BTC remains unchanged, but short-term volatility may continue to amplify, necessitating attention to capital flows, changes in correlation, and the stability of key support areas.

According to 4E observations, the U.S. government shutdown has officially ended, but the market did not rebound, with all three major U.S. stock indices weakening. The Nasdaq fell over 2.2%, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%. Bitcoin, meanwhile, once again fell below the $100,000 mark amidst a broad decline in risk assets, hitting a low of about $98,000, the lowest since May, and the third time this month it has breached this key integer level. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $550 million, with long positions accounting for $423 million. Liquidations for BTC and ETH reached $168 million and $144 million, respectively.The market generally believes that this round of decline was triggered by a sharp drop in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling from 85% last week to nearly "50/50." At the same time, the controversy over the AI bubble is impacting tech stocks, and the high correlation between the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks, combined with the sharp decline of MEME coins in October weakening the profit-making effect, has led to continued pressure on Bitcoin.In terms of individual stocks, the mining company Bitdeer saw its stock price drop another 20%, with a cumulative decline of nearly 50% this week. The company announced the issuance of $400 million in convertible bonds and the repurchase of old bonds, coupled with a fire at its mining facility, Q3 losses exceeding expectations, and delays in ASIC chip deliveries, further undermining market confidence.In the on-chain and ETF sectors, there are structural highlights. Uniswap recorded a historic monthly trading volume of $116.6 billion in October; the XRP spot ETF launched by Canary achieved a trading volume of $58 million on its first day, setting a new record for first-day trading volume for new ETFs this year, surpassing the previous Solana ETF.On the macro level, Luxembourg's sovereign wealth fund FSIL confirmed that it will allocate 1% of its portfolio to Bitcoin, with the finance minister emphasizing that Bitcoin is becoming part of Europe's competitive strategy.4E Commentary: The market is currently in a "strong volatility + weak expectations" phase, with macro pressures and sentiment jointly suppressing Bitcoin's performance. However, with the rise in DEX activity and the entry of sovereign funds, long-term capital is still being allocated, and bearish signals have not yet been fully confirmed.

According to 4E observations, on November 13, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to end the government shutdown with 222 votes in favor and 209 against, marking a temporary resolution to the political deadlock in the U.S. federal government and providing some support for market sentiment.In the realm of crypto assets, the Q3 2025 financial report released by SharpLink, the treasury company of Ethereum, shows that the company's total revenue surged by 1100% year-on-year, reaching approximately $10.8 million, with a net profit of $104.3 million and earnings per share of $0.62. As of November 9, SharpLink's ETH holdings have increased to 861,251 coins, with total crypto assets of about $3 billion, indicating significant success in its ETH treasury strategy.Meanwhile, a bill submitted by Brazilian President Lula da Silva aims to authorize the monetization of seized cryptocurrencies before trial to undermine the funding chains of criminal factions. This initiative, along with new regulatory requirements from the Brazilian central bank for the crypto industry, marks an important step for the country in combating crime and regulating the market.In the Bitcoin market, the market capitalization of Strategy (MSTR) has fallen below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings, resulting in a market cap inversion. At the same time, publicly listed companies added 195,000 Bitcoins in Q3, with a total value of approximately $20.5 billion, continuing the enthusiasm for Bitcoin as a reserve asset, with cumulative purchases exceeding 700,000 since the beginning of 2024.4E Commentary: Recent U.S. political stability, strengthened regulation in Brazil, and continued accumulation of Bitcoin by publicly listed companies demonstrate the significant impact of macro policies and institutional behavior on the crypto asset market. In the short term, favorable U.S. politics and institutional demand may continue to support market sentiment.Do you need me to highlight key figures such as financial report data and holdings in bold, or to streamline some expressions to make the news brief more concise?

According to 4E observations, as of 11 AM this morning, the cryptocurrency market has generally weakened, with the AI sector experiencing a 24-hour decline of 6.33%, leading the market down, and Bitcoin falling below $104,000. Market analysis suggests that this round of correction is mainly influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in ETF fund inflows, leading to a cooling of short-term risk appetite.The U.S. government shutdown may end this week, as bipartisan agreements have been reached in the Senate. After the shutdown is lifted, the SEC and CFTC will accelerate the resumption of regulatory and product approval processes. The SEC plans to prioritize the release of "exemptive relief" to support tokenization and cryptocurrency businesses, while continuing its investigation into digital asset treasury companies; the CFTC plans to promote "spot crypto trading and tokenized collateral" within the year and is negotiating with compliant exchanges to launch leveraged spot products as early as next month. Industry insiders expect that relevant bills will be submitted for presidential signature after coordination between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee.Meanwhile, SoFi has re-entered the cryptocurrency space with the launch of SoFi Crypto, supporting the trading of assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, and integrating its banking services. This return marks SoFi's restart of this sector after suspending cryptocurrency services in 2023, indicating a resurgence of interest from traditional financial institutions in the compliant market.In addition, the scale of tokenized assets on Ethereum has surpassed $200 billion, accounting for about two-thirds of the total tokenized assets across the network. Since the beginning of 2024, this sector has grown nearly 20 times, primarily driven by institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity pushing traditional assets onto the blockchain.4E Commentary: Macroeconomic volatility combined with the resumption of regulation puts short-term pressure on the cryptocurrency market, but the re-entry of SoFi and traditional asset management institutions may open a new phase for the integration of on-chain assets and mainstream finance.

According to 4E observations, the U.S. stock market's cryptocurrency sector experienced significant fluctuations during Monday's night trading. BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) surged 5.7% during the session, as the company disclosed that its cryptocurrency and cash holdings reached $13.2 billion, including 3.5 million Ether, accounting for 2.9% of the total ETH supply. Following the announcement, investor sentiment improved, with Bitcoin and Ethereum rising 1.6% and 1%, respectively.Meanwhile, the performance of several mining companies showed divergence. Bitdeer (BTDR) reported a 174% increase in revenue for the third quarter but suffered a loss of $266 million due to the revaluation of convertible bonds, leading to a 20% drop in stock price; TeraWulf (WULF) saw an 87% year-over-year revenue increase, yet its stock price still fell by 1.3%; CleanSpark (CLSK) announced plans to issue $1 billion in convertible bonds for expansion and buybacks, signaling a new wave of financing interest in the mining sector.On the institutional side, the proportion of traditional hedge funds holding cryptocurrencies rose to 55%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum remaining mainstream asset allocations. Additionally, according to Reuters, the "Digital Asset Treasury Company" (DAT) reported that its total crypto asset holdings increased to $150 billion, with some companies shifting towards lesser-known tokens in pursuit of higher returns, indicating a diversification in funding structures.In terms of policy and mergers, the Bank of England proposed that stablecoin issuers could invest 60% of their reserves in short-term government bonds; Coinbase plans to acquire stablecoin infrastructure BVNK for approximately $2 billion, which could become the largest merger in the stablecoin sector's history.4E Commentary: The balance sheets of cryptocurrency companies are rapidly becoming "crypto-ized," with the trends of institutional holdings and corporate reserves overlapping, leading to a deeper integration of crypto assets with traditional finance. However, against the backdrop of increasing regulatory scrutiny and market liquidity divergence, the focus of funding structures is shifting from "mining expansion" to "asset allocation," accelerating a new round of industry reshuffling.

According to 4E observations, on-chain analyst James Check's latest data shows that approximately 4.64 million bitcoins (worth over $50 billion) have been transferred from dormant wallets this year, setting a historical high. This wave of "sleeping whales" awakening is considered an important driver of the recent BTC consolidation, as the active selling pressure from long-term holders has weakened upward momentum. Analysts point out that although the funding situation remains robust, market confidence is becoming cautious in the short term, with a slight increase in exchange inflows, indicating that investors are adjusting their position structures.On the other hand, this week several major tokens are experiencing significant unlocks. According to Tokenomist data, projects such as APT, LINEA, AVAX, CONX, and ARB have collectively unlocked over $200 million worth of tokens. Among them, LINEA's single unlock accounts for over 16% of its circulating supply, becoming the focus of attention this round. Institutions generally believe that the supply pressure this week may exacerbate the volatility of some tokens in the short term, especially for projects with lower liquidity in the secondary market.Meanwhile, Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies are rapidly emerging as a new capital force. Since 2020, the number of DAT companies has increased from 4 to 142, with 76 added just this year, accumulating a total investment of $42.7 billion in crypto assets. Among them, Strategy remains the largest holder, accounting for about 50%. However, DAT company stocks have generally seen significant surges at the beginning of their listings (BitMine once skyrocketed over 3000%) followed by noticeable corrections, indicating that market sentiment is still primarily driven by short-term speculation.4E Commentary: The "awakening wave" of Bitcoin reflects the asset restructuring and confidence reassessment of long-term holders; meanwhile, the unlocking cycle and new capital forces will jointly shape the liquidity landscape and risk appetite in the next phase.