hawks

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's dot plot shows a clear hawkish tendency, leading to a sharp decline in Shanghai gold and silver futures at the opening. Goldman Sachs has issued a warning that the hawkish shift is not solely due to oil, and when precious metal prices will stabilize remains a focal point of market attention.

According to Jinshi reports, Brad Conger, the Chief Investment Officer of Hirtle & Co., stated that a small-scale dispute broke out within the FOMC today, with dissenters leaning towards a tightening policy stance, which sets the direction for the "struggle" for the incoming chair. The bond market has been pricing in this scenario for several weeks, and Conger believes that, based on strong growth in private consumption and business investment, the hawks will have the upper hand in this contest.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a Polymarket trader spent $2.34 million yesterday betting on the Seahawks to win the 2026 Super Bowl. Two hours ago, he redeemed $3.41 million, making a profit of $1.07 million.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% - 4.25% at the September meeting, but Fed Governor Milan tends to favor a 50 basis point cut. Analysts at TD Securities believe that the meeting minutes will highlight the divergence between hawks and doves within the committee, and some participants are expected to think that further easing of policy is unlikely this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, former chief economist of Bank of America Securities Ethan Harris stated that the days of a unified Federal Reserve are long gone. The dissent from Waller and Bowman, appointed by President Trump in July, supporting interest rate cuts has "broken the harmony." He expects a fierce debate between hawks and doves before the September meeting, bringing uncertainty to the decision on interest rate cuts. Stephen Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities, pointed out that currently neither the hawks supporting maintaining interest rates nor the doves advocating for easing policies hold a majority; most Federal Reserve officials take a neutral stance.

ChainCatcher news, according to the Federal Reserve's official website, in 2025 the Federal Reserve welcomed 2 "hawkish" voters, 1 "dovish" voter, and 1 neutral voter:New voters:Chicago Fed President Austan D. GoolsbeeBoston Fed President Susan M. CollinsSt. Louis Fed President Alberto G. MusalemKansas City Fed President Jeffrey R. SchmidReplaced voters:Richmond Fed President Thomas I. BarkinAtlanta Fed President Raphael W. BosticSan Francisco Fed President Mary C. DalyCleveland Fed President Beth M. HammackChanges in the Federal Reserve's voting members may lead to shifts in policy. Bloomberg believes that the dispersion of voter positions may lead to more disagreements; Barron's believes that the rotation of voting members may tilt the Federal Reserve towards a hawkish stance in its 2025 decisions; Reuters believes that the increase in disagreements among voters may exacerbate risks in policy-making.In addition, the Federal Reserve will hold 8 meetings in 2025, in January, March, May, June, July, September, October, and December. According to the dot plot from December 2024, the Federal Reserve has lowered the number of future rate cuts:The number of rate cuts in 2025 has been reduced from the 4 predicted in September to 2.The median interest rate forecast has been raised from 3.4% in September to 3.9%.

ChainCatcher news, the composition of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee is about to change, while renewed inflation concerns are making central bank decisions more complex. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points and hinted that there would only be two rate cuts in 2025.Chairman Powell clearly stated that the central bank is entering a new phase, and future rate cuts may be more gradual, depending on whether inflation decreases. In addition to the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board and the President of the New York Fed, the presidents of 11 regional Federal Reserve Banks will also take turns voting on interest rate decisions in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Institutions expect more divergence in the FOMC in 2025. An assessment of the committee's voting members along the hawkish-dovish spectrum reveals that the opinions of next year's FOMC voting members will become more polarized, with views scattered at both ends of the spectrum and less concentrated in the middle.