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Bloomberg: Trump prepares for possible escalation of military actions against Iran after the US-Israel elections

According to Bloomberg, the United States is increasing deployments in preparation for a possible resumption of military strikes against Iran. Trump has repeatedly hinted that U.S. forces may resume strikes against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections and has sent a third aircraft carrier strike group and an additional 10,000 sailors and Marines toward the Persian Gulf to provide commanders with more options, although the exact timing remains uncertain.U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visited Israel this week without prior announcement and met with Netanyahu. Israel will hold elections on October 27. Meanwhile, after Iran-backed Houthi forces expanded the conflict to Saudi Arabia, attacking airports and energy facilities, the U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of some diplomatic personnel and their families stationed in Saudi Arabia.A source familiar with Iran's thinking stated that Iran is preparing for a new round of bombings that may occur before and after the U.S. midterm elections and is planning retaliatory actions in the Middle East, including against Israel and the United Arab Emirates. This individual believes that the period from the end of the U.S. elections until the new Congress is sworn in in January will be the most difficult phase, with a way out being to reach an agreement that allows both sides to claim victory. Some officials from Gulf countries are concerned that the intensity of the conflict after its resumption may exceed that before the pause.Recent diplomatic attempts to end the conflict have failed to yield results. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated this week that if there is sufficient evidence showing that the U.S. genuinely wishes to reach a fair, dignified, and permanent resolution to end the conflict, Iran is willing to give diplomacy another chance, but he also noted that there is currently not much reason to expect progress.The conflict has disrupted energy transportation in the Persian Gulf, pushing Brent crude oil prices up more than 80% this year and raising U.S. gasoline prices and living costs. A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 shows that about two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, and about half of respondents expect the war to last more than a year. Reports indicate that concerns over military escalation are once again driving up oil prices and affecting the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections.
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Analyst: In each U.S. midterm election cycle, Bitcoin has shown a significant pullback, and attention should be paid to the key support level of $73,000

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Charts stated that as the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, investors may overlook the recurring phenomenon of Bitcoin pullbacks observed in previous election cycles. He believes that this election may once again be accompanied by significant volatility, and the downside risk is worth noting, with a key focus on the lower price level of $73,000. According to his statistics, during the U.S. midterm election cycles in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin experienced pullbacks of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.However, he emphasized that correlation does not imply causation; the election itself may not necessarily be the reason for the decline, as these pullbacks are also influenced by the overall market cycle of Bitcoin, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment. Fourth-quarter returns also exhibit similar characteristics: in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin fell by 16.7%, 42.16%, and 14.75% in the fourth quarter, respectively. The only exception was in 2010, when it rose by 391%, but Bitcoin was still in its early development stage at that time. Therefore, in the past four midterm election years, three of those years recorded negative returns in the fourth quarter.Regarding the subsequent trend, Ali Charts indicated that the area around $73,000 is close to the average purchase cost of current short-term Bitcoin holders, which can be used to observe the positions of recent investors entering the market. He pointed out that in an established bull market, Bitcoin often finds support near the cost of short-term holders after experiencing a significant pullback. He believes that if selling pressure accelerates after the election on November 3, pushing Bitcoin back down to around $73,000, that area will become an important position to test whether buyers are still willing to maintain the overall bullish trend. If the price continues to rebound from that area, it will strengthen the bullish judgment; in terms of operations, he will wait for signs of selling pressure exhaustion and renewed demand before considering establishing long positions.

The SEC's conditions for tokenized securities exemptions have sparked disagreements, with the industry calling for clarification on the "public and permissionless" standard

The innovation exemption for tokenized securities trading venues launched by the U.S. SEC in September is sparking controversy within the industry regarding blockchain qualification standards. This exemption allows eligible companies to trade tokenized U.S. stocks without registering as traditional securities exchanges, but requires their smart contracts to be auditable, public, and deployed on a public, permissionless blockchain.Currently, three companies have submitted operational intent notices to the SEC. TSV LLC plans to use the privacy-focused Canton Network; OKXICE and Kephas Corp. intend to utilize their respective enterprise group's developed Ethereum Layer 2 networks.In a letter submitted on Thursday, the Solana Policy Institute requested the SEC to tighten the definition of "permissionless," focusing on who actually controls the blockchain, including who can validate or block transactions and modify network rules. Hedera advocates for an expansion of the exemption's scope, arguing that only authorized entities should participate in validation, which should not disqualify their network.The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) also called for clarification on which blockchains are eligible and questioned whether stock tokenization should require explicit prior consent from the issuing company, rather than requiring companies to opt out. The financial regulatory advocacy group Better Markets urged the SEC to withdraw the exemption and instead engage in formal rulemaking.An SEC official stated that companies can begin operations 30 days after submitting a notice, provided they meet the exemption criteria, without waiting for SEC approval, which does not imply SEC endorsement of their chosen blockchain. The official noted that the regulatory agency intends to maintain a broad definition to allow space for companies to experiment; further frequently asked questions may be released, but substantive adjustments would require action from the commission.Meanwhile, more companies are opposing the tokenization of their stocks. As of Friday, among the 62 companies initially listed by OKXICE, 22 have raised objections, exceeding one-third. New objectors include Wells Fargo, Arm, and Intuit.
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