SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240522): Tomorrow's ETF Decision!
In terms of digital currency, as the decision date for the Ethereum spot ETF approaches, the overall IV level of ETH has risen again, and the price has successfully broken through the 3700 mark.
Yesterday (21 MAY), according to Jinshi News, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that weak inflation data over the next three to five months could lead the Fed to consider interest rate cuts by the end of the year, and there is currently no need to raise rates. Fed Vice Chairman Barr also reiterated the need to maintain high interest rates for a longer period. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell for the first time in five days, dipping to 4.40%, but has since recovered most of its losses, currently reported at 4.437%. The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the S&P and Nasdaq rising 0.26% and 0.2%, respectively, reaching new historical highs again.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Investing
In the cryptocurrency sector, as the decision date for the Ethereum spot ETF approaches, the overall IV level of ETH has risen again, and the price has successfully broken through the 3700 mark, while Bitcoin's price appears slightly weak, adjusting back to around 70000 USD.
Source: Deribit (as of 22 MAY 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
In trading, BTC mainly focused on bullish strategies, with the 31 MAY 77000 vs 81000 Call Spread seeing nearly 1400 BTC traded, becoming the highlight of yesterday. For ETH, the significant price increase triggered a large number of stop-loss and take-profit orders, with approximately 19500 ETH bought back for the 31 MAY 3000-C stop-loss, and about 18000 ETH sold for profit on the 28 JUN 24 3600-C, marking the most significant reduction point yesterday; large platform transactions were active, mainly involving June bullish Call Spreads, Long 3400 Put at the end of May, and selling of bullish options along with buying of bearish options explained the noticeable decline in ETH's Vol Skew during the upward market yesterday.
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, overall ETH trading distribution
Data Source: Deribit, overall BTC trading distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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