SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240130): BTC rises another 1300 points, bullish sentiment increases
In terms of digital currency, BTC continues to lead the market upward, closing up 1300 points during the day, once again returning above 43000 USD. The Future APR in the futures market has also been boosted, reaching around 10%.
Yesterday (29 JAN), the U.S. Treasury Department revised its net borrowing estimate for the first quarter down from $816 billion to $760 billion (-6.9%), unexpectedly lower than market expectations, which boosted U.S. Treasury bonds. Long-term bond yields led the decline, with the current two-year/ten-year yields at 4.314% / 4.061%. This also helped U.S. stocks strengthen in the late session, with the Dow/S&P/NASDAQ closing up 0.59% / 0.76% / 1.1%.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView
Source: SignalPlus
In terms of digital currencies, BTC continues to lead the market upward, closing up 1300 points during the day, returning to above $43,000. The futures market's Future APR has also been boosted to around 10%. In options, BTC implied volatility rose slightly by 1-2% Vol; ETH increased by 1.84% from its low at the end of February, while other maturities rose slightly by about 0.6%; the overall shape of the ATM Curve remains unchanged, still maintaining a relatively flat front end, with an upward trend starting from the end of February.
Source: Deribit (as of 30 JAN 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
From another perspective, as an important market sentiment indicator, Vol Skew has risen again today. From the trading over the past 24 hours, we also observed that ETH concentrated trading in February shows a clear Risky Flow, driving the mid-front 25 dRR to reverse; in terms of BTC, some transactions have shifted to the medium to long term, with a large number of bullish call options concentrated around the 0.2-0.3 Delta for 9 FEB/29 MAR/26 APR, but there was also significant selling pressure this week on 2 FEB, concentrated around the $43,000 and $44,000 strike prices, possibly indicating stop-loss orders or a lower expectation for a price breakthrough in the short term.
Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew rises again
Data Source: Deribit, ETH Risky Flow drives mid-front 25 dRR upward
Data Source: Deribit, a large number of bullish call options concentrated around the 0.2-0.3 Delta for 9 FEB/29 MAR/26 APR
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Risk warning Risk warning
