Statistics of Binance Launchpool historical returns, predicting the upcoming PIXEL price

Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | Nan Zhi

On February 8, Binance's new coin mining announced the launch of the 46th project, Pixels (PIXEL), which is a social network game based on the Ronin network. Users can invest BNB and FDUSD into the PIXEL mining pool on the Launchpad website after 08:00 (UTC+8) on February 9 to earn PIXEL rewards. The PIXEL mining will last for a total of 10 days.

Odaily Planet Daily will review the recent Binance Launchpool yield situation in this article and estimate the PIXEL token price based on lending and exchange data.

Original Pixels Game Token Exchange

According to Binance's Pixels research report, the Pixels project has raised $4.8 million through three rounds of private token sales, with 14% of the PIXEL token supply sold at prices of $0.005, $0.009, and $0.012 respectively. As of February 8, the maximum supply of PIXEL is 5 billion tokens, with an initial circulating supply of 771,041,667 tokens (approximately 15.42% of the maximum supply) after launch.

Pixels will gradually phase out the in-game token BERRY, which will be exchangeable for PIXEL at an initial exchange rate of 1000 BERRY: 7.6175 PIXEL. Subsequently, Pixels announced that the exchange rate will be reduced by 10% on February 13.

Coingecko data shows that the current price of BERRY is $0.00265 USDT, which gives a PIXEL price of $0.385 USDT based on the above exchange ratio.

Launchpool Data Review

The following chart reviews the Launchpool data from Memecoin (MEME) to the most recent Altlayer (ALT), considering only the yield from the BNB pool. The yield rates are calculated based on the closing price of BNB before the mining started (assuming that the BNB price had been sufficiently negotiated before the Launchpool announcement and mining began).

In summary, the average annualized yield of the last 7 Launchpools reached 130%. Excluding MEME, the annualized yield reached 148%, which is significantly higher than the USDT financial products offered by various protocols and exchanges.

Assuming that PIXEL's annualized yield is also 130%, and the PIXEL mining lasts for ten days, the absolute yield of this Launchpool, calculated on a daily basis, would be 130% / 365 × 10 = 3.56%.

To achieve a yield of 3.56%, the price of PIXEL would need to reach 16,041,115 × 319.2 × 3.56% / 280,000,000 = $0.65 USDT.

Price Prediction Based on Lending Data

Assuming that PIXEL's annualized yield should be "BNB lending rate + risk-free yield," where the BNB lending rate comes from various lending protocols and exchanges, and the risk-free yield is the USDT lending rate from exchanges.

This section selects the BNB lending rates from Venus, Kinza, Radiant, and Binance lending, with an average of 93%, as shown in the chart below.

The Binance USDT financial product rate is approximately 12%, while OKX is around 38%, giving an average of 25%. Thus, the annualized yield for PIXEL would be 118%, corresponding to a token price of $0.591 USDT. The minimum token price without considering the risk-free yield is $0.466 USDT.

Conclusion

In summary, to maintain an average Launchpool yield or to make it profitable for lenders, the price of PIXEL needs to reach around $0.6 USDT. Based on current market expectations and the minimum token price, the bottom line price is approximately between $0.4 USDT and $0.45 USDT.