SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240425): IBTC First Day Zero Inflow, IV Hits Recent New Low Again
In terms of options, the overall level of IV has plummeted again, with the cyclical options for BTC and ETH continuing the selling pressure from yesterday, and IV has dropped by about 8%.
Affected by a new round of geopolitical news from the Middle East, Bitcoin's intraday decline exceeded 4%, hitting a low of 63606, and forming a support level around 64000.
Source: TradingView
Due to the drop in coin prices, the world's largest Bitcoin spot ETF—BlackRock's IBIT—ended its continuous positive inflow for 71 days, while Grayscale's GBTC saw a significant fund sell-off of up to 130 $M, far exceeding the total inflow of other ETFs.
Since the approval of the ETF, its daily net inflow has been viewed by many investors as a sentiment indicator for the market towards BTC. The fact that IBIT lost its appeal to the market in the past day may be considered a short-term bearish signal. However, it is also important to note that the net flow gained by the ETF since its launch has far exceeded market expectations, with total assets under management surpassing 20 $B in such a short time, making the temporary halt in flow understandable.
In another piece of news, according to U.Today, a recent report from AdvisorHub cited two anonymous executives stating that banking giant Morgan Stanley may allow 15,000 brokers to sell Bitcoin ETFs to their clients. Currently, the bank is only actively offering these products, meaning they are not proactively recommending clients to invest in Bitcoin ETFs. However, as the report suggests, this policy change (if it is not just a rumor) could significantly increase the demand for BTC ETFs.
Source: Farside Investors
In terms of options, the overall level of IV has plummeted again, with BTC and ETH's cycle options continuing the selling pressure from yesterday, with IV dropping around 8%. Among them, ETH concentrated on the trading volume within the 26 APR 24 3000-3200 strike price, which accounted for almost all of ETH's trading volume in the past day, while BTC saw sell-offs in both ATM and Wing.
In addition, there are some bullish options being accumulated at the 70000-80000 USD strike price for BTC at the end of May, while the sell-off of deeper OTM bullish options mainly comes from customized strategies of large platforms, selling May 110000 Calls while simultaneously buying an equal amount of June 110000 vs 160000 Call Spreads.
Source: Deribit (as of 25 APR 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH trading and transactions on 26 APR 24
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC trading and transactions on 26 APR 24
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
