Will Trump Win by Playing the "Encryption" Card?

Author: Golden Finance

"If you support cryptocurrency, you better vote for Trump."

Former U.S. President Trump is recently leveraging a series of actions and statements to play the "crypto card," increasing his campaign leverage.

Forcing the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs, accepting cryptocurrency donations, ensuring the future of the crypto revolution happens in the U.S., releasing the Silk Road founder, and considering a pardon for WikiLeaks founder Assange are all part of Trump's latest campaign arsenal.

So, can Trump, by playing the "crypto card," win over American voters to outpace Biden in the election? Will his promises regarding cryptocurrency be just empty checks? Will he win?

I. Trump's "Crypto" Card to Win Voters

1. Campaign Pressure Forces Approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs and Acceptance of Crypto Donations

On May 8, 2024, Trump told cryptocurrency supporters at Mar-a-Lago, "If you support cryptocurrency, you better vote for Trump," citing the Biden administration's regulatory crackdown on the industry.

On May 21, 2024, Trump's 2024 campaign team announced it would accept cryptocurrency donations in BTC, ETH, GOGE, SOL, SHIB, XRP, USDC, and ZRX.

Perhaps feeling the political pressure from Trump's campaign, the SEC under Biden made a 180-degree turn regarding spot Ethereum ETFs, approving the 19b-4 filings for all eight spot Ethereum ETFs on May 23.

2. Release of the Silk Road Founder

On May 25, 2024, Trump appeared at the Libertarian National Convention, aiming to court American libertarians. He promised that if elected president again, he would reduce the life sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. This statement elicited enthusiastic cheers from the audience, many of whom held signs reading "Free Ross."

3. Ensuring the Future of Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin Happens in the U.S.

On May 25, 2024, also at the Libertarian National Convention, Trump stated, "I will ensure the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin happens in the U.S., not driven overseas. I will support the self-custody rights of the 50 million cryptocurrency holders in our country. I say this only if you vote for me; I can keep Elizabeth Warren and her minions away from your Bitcoin. I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency."

On the same day, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, stating, "I have a very positive and open attitude towards cryptocurrency companies and everything related to this emerging industry. Our country must lead in this field, with no second place. In contrast, Joe Biden is the worst president in our nation's history, and he wants cryptocurrency to die slowly and painfully."

4. Considering a Pardon for Assange

On May 27, 2024, Trump revealed during an interview with host Timcast IRL that if elected president, he would "very seriously consider" pardoning WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

II. Can Trump's Crypto Card Attract More Votes?

On March 14, 2024, a poll released by Paradigm showed that 19% of registered voters in the U.S. have purchased cryptocurrency. The poll further indicated that cryptocurrency holders are more supportive of Trump, with his approval rating (48%) surpassing Biden's (39%), while 13% remain undecided. Additionally, the ownership rate of cryptocurrency is higher among people of color and younger demographics, which is crucial for the situation in "swing states."

Due to their competitiveness, swing states receive significant attention and campaign resources from both parties during elections. These data overall suggest that cryptocurrency owners themselves constitute a swing voting group, which could be decisive if the election is closely contested.

According to a survey by DGC, 26% of respondents indicated they are concerned about candidates' positions on cryptocurrency, and 21% stated that cryptocurrency is an important issue to consider in the upcoming election.

Respondents' overall stance on cryptocurrency may be attributed to a sense of overregulation: 55% are worried that policymakers will stifle innovation through excessive regulation.

III. Criticism of Trump from Industry Insiders

Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of Ethereum and founder of Cardano: The Trump administration "basically ignored" the cryptocurrency industry, while "the Biden administration has taken coordinated action to eliminate cryptocurrency."

Monica Taher, former Director of Technology and Business Innovation for the Salvadoran government: Cryptocurrency "is being exploited by some opportunistic politicians to elevate their status and present themselves as innovators."

Adam Cochran, partner at Cinneamhain Ventures: Trump "has a decades-long history of flipping" and "selling out others for his own benefit."

Alexander Bloom, partner at Prime hedge fund: Trump "has a record of making promises to desperate people/groups for his own purposes and then not delivering on those promises."

IV. Trump's Concept Meme Coins Surge

AssangeDAO: Following the news of Trump's consideration of a pardon for Assange, the AssangeDAO token JUSTICE has surged over tenfold since May 26.

FreeRossDAO: On May 26, influenced by Trump's announcement of a potential pardon for the Silk Road creator, the FreeRossDAO token FREE skyrocketed, with a peak increase of over 25 times on that day. Although it has since retraced, it is still more than five times the price before the surge on May 26.

TRUMP: On May 9, the Trump-themed meme coin MAGA (TRUMP) began to surge, reaching over $13 at its peak, with a market cap briefly exceeding $600 million.

V. Appendix

1. Who is Assange?

Julian Paul Assange is an Australian journalist and activist who founded the whistleblowing website WikiLeaks in 2006. WikiLeaks gained international attention in 2010 when it published a series of classified documents provided by U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning.

On November 30, 2010, at the request of the International Public Prosecutor's Office in Sweden, Interpol issued an international arrest warrant for Assange on charges of sexual offenses. On December 7, Assange turned himself in to the London police, but he denied the allegations. On June 19, 2012, Assange sought political asylum at the Ecuadorian Embassy in London during his bail period, and in August of that year, he was granted political asylum by the Ecuadorian government, living in the embassy for nearly seven years.

Before becoming the spokesperson and editor for WikiLeaks, Assange was a student of physics and mathematics, a programmer, and a hacker. He lived in various countries, often without a permanent residence, occasionally appearing in public to express his views on press freedom, censorship, and investigative journalism.

On April 4, 2019, WikiLeaks tweeted a message from a senior Ecuadorian government official stating that Assange would be expelled under the pretext of a scandal and that an agreement had been reached with the UK to arrest him.

On April 11, 2019, the London police stated they had received approval from the Ecuadorian Embassy in the UK to arrest Julian Assange.

On May 23, 2019, the U.S. government further charged Assange with violating the Espionage Act of 1917. Editors from newspapers such as The Washington Post and The New York Times, as well as press freedom organizations, criticized the government's decision to charge Assange under the Espionage Act, describing it as an attack on the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution that protects press freedom.

On December 10, 2021, the UK Supreme Court ruled that Assange could be extradited to the U.S. to face charges.

On July 1, 2022, Assange announced he would formally appeal the extradition order.

On May 20, 2024, the UK High Court again heard Assange's extradition appeal case.

2. Assange and Cryptocurrency

(1) Assange Received Significant Cryptocurrency Donations

On April 11, 2019, when Assange was arrested by police at the Ecuadorian Embassy in the UK, he shouted, "You must resist, you can resist," which triggered a strong reaction in the cryptocurrency community. Within 24 hours, the Bitcoin address publicly announced by WikiLeaks received hundreds of BTC donations, totaling over $40,000. On the same day, nearly all of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over 6% in a single day.

Since 2010, WikiLeaks has gradually published the Afghanistan War Diaries, Iraq War Logs, and tens of thousands of U.S. diplomatic cables. On December 5, 2010, the U.S. government halted all traditional financial donation channels for WikiLeaks, including credit and debit cards. To keep the website operational and continue advocating for justice, people familiar with Bitcoin and related communities began urging WikiLeaks to accept Bitcoin donations to break the financial blockade. This proposal was strongly opposed by Satoshi Nakamoto; moreover, the coincidence of Nakamoto leaving a final post on Bitcointalk a week after the incident and disappearing entirely led many to suspect that the WikiLeaks event catalyzed Nakamoto's early departure from the project.

The Bitcoin donations brought Assange hundreds of times in returns. During the Bitcoin bull market in 2017, Assange provocatively thanked the U.S. government on Twitter for their financial blockade against WikiLeaks, stating that otherwise, WikiLeaks would not have started using and investing in Bitcoin, resulting in over 500 times returns in a few years.

(2) Assange and NFT Auctions

On February 10, 2022, AssangeDAO, named after WikiLeaks founder Assange, won part of the NFT series Censored by Julian Assange x Pak for 1,593 ETH (approximately $53 million), specifically the Clock.

Clock is an independent NFT, modeled after a silent timer that counts the days Assange has spent in prison. Proceeds from the NFT sale will be used to pay Assange's legal fees and donated to the Wau Holland Foundation, which defends Julian Assange. Additionally, the JUSTICE governance token of AssangeDAO can be claimed by donors on Juicebox.

On the morning of February 9, AssangeDAO concluded its fundraising on Juicebox, raising a total of 17,422 ETH.