A detailed analysis clarifies the reasons behind Harris's record-high winning probability on the prediction market Polymarket
Harris's winning probability on Polymarket rose to a historic high of 45%, then fell back to 44%. Representatives from Harris's campaign team are expected to further engage with executives from the crypto industry at a roundtable meeting next Monday, and it is anticipated that her stance may soften following her competitor Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference.Author: Weilin, PANews
Today (August 2), Kamala Harris, who is expected to become the Democratic presidential candidate in the United States, saw her winning probability on the prediction market Polymarket rise to a historic high of 45%, before falling back to 44%. Trump's winning probability dropped to 54%, while just days before Biden's withdrawal on July 16, Trump's winning probability was 71%.
Two days ago, over 200 venture capitalists signed a letter publicly supporting Kamala Harris's bid for the White House, stating that without a "strong and trustworthy institution," Silicon Valley and other industries would collapse.
Next Monday local time, representatives from Harris's campaign team are expected to further engage with executives from the crypto industry at a roundtable meeting, and it is anticipated that her stance may soften in response to Trump's remarks at the Bitcoin conference.
Over 200 Venture Capitalists Support Harris
Venture capitalists who signed the "VCs for Kamala" pledge include the following figures from the crypto industry:
- Ron Conway: Managing partner and founder of SV Angel. The fund is an investor in at least 10 crypto companies, including Coinbase, Uniswap, and OpenSea;
- Ryan Morrison: Partner at Founders Circle Capital, which has invested in retail investment app Robinhood that provides crypto services, as well as digital asset brokerage FalconX;
- Rebecca Kaden: The first female managing partner at USV. USV's portfolio includes 24 crypto companies, such as Coinbase, Blackbird Labs, Dapper Labs, and Polychain Capital. Kaden donated $4,000 to Democratic candidates and committees last year;
- Mark Cuban: An investor in 20 blockchain companies, including Arbitrum, Polygon, and DeepSea. Cuban is a staunch critic of Trump;
- Reid Hoffman: Co-founder of LinkedIn and partner at Greylock, who has invested in six crypto companies, including Coinbase. On July 31, he stated that supporting Harris is "an investment in our democratic future."
In addition, former CEO of the American crypto exchange Uphold, J.P. Thieriot, also expressed support for Harris. Thieriot stated that he hopes to build support for the Democratic Party from the digital currency industry. He believes that former President Trump offered hollow promises to the industry, while Harris has sent new signals of openness.
Thieriot said, "Of course, she has to do something to earn trust," adding, "It would be crazy if we don't get involved."
He mentioned that he, along with other organizations including cryptocurrency lawyers, has drafted a strategic document. They shared this document with Harris's campaign team this week and are awaiting a response. The strategic document states: "We believe that cryptocurrency is the most important interstate swing issue of this election cycle… Trump has taken action to try to occupy this space and has raised a lot of money, essentially offering vague platitudes without any meaningful policy commitments."
The document suggests holding a cryptocurrency fundraising event in San Francisco and predicts that Harris could gain support from prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space and potentially receive tens of millions of dollars in campaign donations from the industry. Thieriot mentioned that he is building a related website.
Former CEO of Uphold, J.P. Thieriot
Harris Allegedly "Reaching Out to Crypto Industry Insiders," Campaign Team to Attend New Roundtable
On July 27, it was reported that members of Harris's team had recently contacted individuals closely associated with cryptocurrency companies to discuss meeting arrangements. These companies include leading exchanges Coinbase, stablecoin company Circle, and blockchain payment group Ripple Labs. However, advisors from Harris's campaign team later clarified that the initiative to reconnect with the cryptocurrency industry is primarily not aimed at obtaining election donations, but rather to establish a positive relationship with the crypto industry to pave the way for reasonable regulatory frameworks.
According to FOX reporter Eleanor Terrett, next Monday local time, California Congressman Ro Khanna will host a key roundtable meeting in Washington. This roundtable will bring together leaders from the cryptocurrency industry and political figures.
Democratic politicians will participate in this cryptocurrency roundtable. Additionally, representatives from Harris's campaign team will also attend. This initiative represents a move by pro-crypto Democrats to establish new relationships with the crypto industry, marking a significant policy shift.
As early as July, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna organized a roundtable discussion on cryptocurrency regulation. He invited prominent figures such as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and entrepreneur Mark Cuban. Khanna expressed optimism about the potential outcomes of these discussions.
He stated that this meeting will lay the groundwork for introducing a strong regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the United States. Although specific details of the meeting have not been disclosed, Garlinghouse praised Khanna on social media. The Ripple CEO referred to Khanna as an "outstanding" leader and commended him for taking the time to engage with the cryptocurrency industry.
Harris's attempt to change her stance on cryptocurrencies has not been without resistance. Recently, Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty (Republican) expressed strong skepticism about Harris's new strategy. He stated, "After witnessing the tremendous success that President Trump had at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, it is not surprising that Harris, as she has on many other issues, is eager to make a last-minute 180-degree turn to appear pro-crypto."
Additionally, Senator Hagerty criticized the Biden-Harris administration's previous policies toward the cryptocurrency sector, calling them "extremely anti-crypto and anti-innovation." Hagerty also pointed out the contradictions between Harris's new stance and the government's past actions.
"Unfortunately, her current approach is burdened by the extreme anti-crypto and anti-innovation policies of the Biden-Harris administration over the past three and a half years," he commented.
According to Hagerty, he believes that the cryptocurrency community shares the Republican values of freedom and innovation, and therefore is unlikely to be influenced by Harris's change of stance. He cited the positive response Trump received at the recent Bitcoin Nashville 2024 conference as evidence of the Republican Party's greater influence among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. "The Republican Party is the party of cryptocurrency, and Kamala's last-ditch efforts will not change that," Hagerty concluded.
For now, whether Harris will publicly clarify her stance on cryptocurrency will be a key factor in the upcoming U.S. election dynamics, and PANews will continue to monitor the situation.
