The Great Immortal said: The latest interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve will be announced on September 18! Will the interest rate cut arrive as expected?

The Great Immortal Says Coin
2024-09-18 20:50:41
Collection
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce the latest interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time this Thursday (19th).

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 AM Beijing time this Thursday (19th). As investors' expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed heat up again, U.S. stocks surged on September 13, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rising for five consecutive days, reversing the previous week's weak performance and achieving the largest single-week gain of the year.
**  This week, major central banks including the U.S., U.K., and Japan will hold decision-making meetings, with the Fed's decision being the most closely watched by the market. Fed officials are considering a rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points, but currently, the outlook is evenly split. The market is also paying attention to the latest economic growth forecasts and dot plot released by the Fed, which will provide important guidance for the future direction of monetary policy.**
**  There is a saying in the market that Bitcoin is a leading indicator of the overall economy, and typically, a rate cut is a significant positive for risk assets like Bitcoin, bringing substantial liquidity to the market. Therefore, Bitcoin's strong performance before a rate cut could be a bullish signal, but is that really the case?**
**  After the Fed announces its rate cut decision at 2 AM on Thursday, a cut of 25 or 50 basis points would still be within market expectations, but a cut of 75 basis points could indicate that the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is greater than anticipated, which may lead to more severe fluctuations in Bitcoin. Investors should be cautious about risk management.**
**  Additionally, besides the Fed's announcement of the latest interest rate decision at 2 AM, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 PM to share his views on future policy. If his stance is too hawkish, it could impact market sentiment.**
**  In terms of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,431 at midnight yesterday, and surged rapidly after 10 PM, reaching over $61,343 shortly after 11 PM, marking the highest price since September. However, selling pressure emerged soon after, preventing further gains, and it began to fluctuate downwards after midnight, with the price at the time of writing being $59,915, a 24-hour increase narrowing to 4.36%.**
**  As the Fed is set to announce its latest interest rate decision shortly, I will provide a specific market analysis and suggestions, focusing on a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut for reference.**
**  Currently, the market generally believes that the probability of a 50 basis point cut is greater than that of a 25 basis point cut, both of which are significant positive news for Bitcoin. However, I believe that if this rate cut is 25 basis points, which is below expectations and has already been priced in, Bitcoin's price may rise initially and then fall, or even plunge directly. If a 50 basis point cut aligns with market expectations, it indirectly indicates a severe recession in the U.S. economy, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks. Although there may be a shift to safe-haven assets, this is not a long-term solution, and Bitcoin's price could initially skyrocket, but after digesting the sentiment of a 50 basis point cut, it may continue to decline. (Personally, I favor a 25 basis point cut.)**
**      Writing time: (2024-09-18, 19:40)**
**     (Article by: Daxian Says Coin)**

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