Matrixport Market Observation: Trump Returns to the White House, Crypto Asset Google Searches Hit All-Time High

In the past week, the BTC price has generally shown a trend of fluctuating upward. Influenced by macro data (U.S. dollar index, non-farm data, CPI), market information (such as the U.S. Department of Justice's approval to liquidate BTC seized in the Silk Road case), and political factors (Trump's inauguration), the BTC price has experienced significant volatility over the past week, dropping to a low of below $90,000 and reaching a high of $109,588, setting a new ATH. Currently, the BTC price is around $102,000 (the above data is from Binance spot real-time data at 15:00).

With TRUMP leading the Trump family MEME Coin frenzy in the market, and the absence of any mention of crypto assets during Trump's inauguration, the market generally considers this week to be stimulating and closely watched. The executive orders signed by Trump not only relate to the subsequent trends of crypto assets but also determine the future development of global macro assets.

Market Analysis

The adoption rate of BTC surpasses that of the internet and mobile phones, with the popularity of crypto assets continuing to rise

A report released by BlackRock on January 14 indicates that the adoption rate of BTC has surpassed that of past transformative technologies, including the internet and mobile phones. The report emphasizes that since its launch in 2009, BTC has rapidly evolved from a niche innovation to a globally recognized asset. Trends such as rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the traditional banking system highlight the value of BTC as a decentralized asset. As the global economy digitizes, BTC is becoming an indispensable part of the evolving financial landscape. Meanwhile, the younger generation's familiarity with technology and preference for digital-first solutions positions them as the leading group in crypto adoption.

Crypto asset Google search index hits all-time high

On January 21, Google Trends data showed that the search volume for "How to buy crypto" reached an all-time high, peaking at 100. This marks the first ATH in four years, with searches for "How to buy trump coin" continuing to rise.

After the surge of $TRUMP, a trust crisis may arise in the MEME coin frenzy

On the eve of Trump's inauguration, the $TRUMP issued by his team sparked a market frenzy. The astronomical rise in speed and the early listing on compliant exchanges led to peak expectations for the "crypto president," and the influence of the U.S. in this round of price increase also rose significantly. Against the backdrop of the crypto market and public anticipation that Trump might introduce favorable new policies for crypto, the launch of the new MEME coin $MELANIA by Trump's team surprised the market, causing $TRUMP to plummet.

As the market acceptance of crypto assets like BTC increases, how to maintain the regularization of crypto investments is a pressing issue for the market. The transition from $TRUMP to $MELANIA is self-evident, with blatant "opportunism" compounding the previous success that drained market liquidity. Where will the next market catalyst come from?

Industry Dynamics

Trump has officially taken office as president, and this term begins against the backdrop of exceptionally strong U.S. economic performance, with market inflation awaiting resolution. Meanwhile, with opportunities in the past style, the market generally believes that Trump may implement more unstable but direct policies regarding tariffs, immigration, fiscal spending, and even personnel changes.

CPI & Non-farm data show improvement, global market closed steadily last week

On January 11, data showed that initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose, but layoffs remained at a low level, indicating overall resilience in the job market. On January 15, U.S. CPI data was released. The seasonally unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate for December was 3.2%, lower than expectations and the previous value of 3.30%, marking the lowest since August 24; the seasonally unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for December was 2.9%, in line with market expectations. The cooling of the core CPI alleviated market concerns about rising inflation in the U.S., and global markets reacted swiftly. However, the Federal Reserve still faces a loose financial situation, a strong underlying economy, and a tricky inflation problem.

Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada before February 1

On Monday evening, Trump responded to reporters' questions, stating, "We are considering imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada because they allow a large number of people to enter the U.S. I think we will implement this on February 1." Both Mexico and Canada have indicated that they will retaliate against U.S. goods if Trump imposes tariffs on them. The proposed tariffs on neighboring countries could have a "disastrous" impact on the U.S. automotive industry and Detroit automakers, as they import a large number of cars from Canada and Mexico.

Trump described Canada as "a very bad abuser" and complained about the influx of fentanyl and immigrants from the northern border. Meanwhile, Trump did not indicate any immediate tariffs on China, leading the A-shares and Hong Kong stock markets to show a slight "sigh of relief." The offshore yuan fell slightly by 0.2%, but maintained most of its gains from Monday.

The U.S. embraces crypto assets, with multiple states submitting BTC-related bills

The SEC is prepared to advance crypto policy reforms immediately after Trump takes office.

On January 15, Reuters reported that senior Republican officials at the SEC are ready to begin reforming the agency's cryptocurrency policies as early as next week after Trump takes office. Information indicates that commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda are considering measures that include initiating relevant procedures to ultimately formulate guidance or rules clarifying under what circumstances the agency will classify cryptocurrencies as securities and reviewing some cryptocurrency enforcement cases currently in court.

At the same time, Texas senators submitted SB 778 to establish a state-level Bitcoin strategic reserve; Wyoming representatives submitted legislative proposals for strategic Bitcoin reserves; Massachusetts introduced two new bills regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.