Matrixport Market Observation: Short-term market sentiment is highly volatile, with BTC temporarily holding the 79k support level

Due to the impact of the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, global assets have entered a phase of panic selling. BTC has shown relative strength in the past week but is still influenced by macro factors, making it difficult to establish an independent trend. As multiple countries and regions announce countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, market volatility has intensified.

In particular, China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10, which has escalated the competition among international giants and triggered a market sell-off, leading to a "Black Monday." Not only did macro assets plummet, but the Nasdaq index has fallen nearly 25% from its peak, U.S. stocks dropped by 4%, and BTC touched a low of $74,508, with a maximum fluctuation of over 10% in 24 hours.

The market is overly focused on "reciprocal tariffs," and the impact of news has deepened. From rumors of a "90-day suspension" to "debunking false news," BTC surged rapidly to $81,200 on the 7th. As of the writing of this article, BTC is holding a support level of $79,000 (the above data is from Binance spot market, real-time data as of April 8, 14:30).

Market Interpretation

Event-driven factors dominate the recent market; pay attention to short-term market sentiment volatility risks.

The selling sentiment in the market has led to a significant decline in U.S. stocks, with over $5 trillion in market value evaporating in the past few days, and losses exceeding $10 trillion since Trump's inauguration.

The connection between the market and macro variables has deepened. Although the pullback triggered by tariffs is a specific event-driven decline, due to the current uncontrollable human variables, it cannot be ruled out that various economic or political consultations regarding tariffs will take place in the next six months. Market sentiment will fluctuate with changes in trade policies, and investors are advised to pay attention to short-term market volatility risks.

Multiple countries have issued countermeasures, and economic competition has begun.

According to Jinshi News, the European Commission has proposed a 25% counter-tariff on a range of U.S. imports, which will take effect from May 16. The European Commission has removed U.S. bourbon whiskey from its list of goods subject to counter-tariffs. The document also shows that the European Commission has proposed counter-tariffs on certain U.S. imports, which are planned to take effect on December 1.

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that all possible measures will be taken to address the impact of U.S. tariffs. A task force has been established at the Ministry of Finance and the Financial Services Agency to handle the U.S. tariff issue. Japan and the U.S. have decided to communicate at the departmental level regarding foreign exchange issues. South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok stated that South Korea will continue to closely monitor the financial markets. The volatility of the financial markets may persist, and if necessary, swift market stabilization measures will be taken. The stock markets in Japan and South Korea opened significantly higher on the 8th, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 6% at one point, and the TOPIX index expanding its gains to 6%. The KOSPI index in South Korea rose over 2% to 2381.31 points at one point.

A-share market stabilization measures initiated, A-shares show significant recovery.

Before the market opened on the 8th, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission released measures to stabilize the A-share market, supporting state-owned enterprises to repurchase shares to protect shareholder interests. Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin have all announced plans to increase their holdings and collectively increase their stock assets to maintain stable market operations. The total share of stock ETFs increased by 42.764 billion shares, with net inflows estimated at approximately 74.003 billion yuan based on average transaction prices.

After the A-share market opened, there was a significant upward trend, with the consumer and retail sectors leading the gains, and state-owned enterprises' stocks collectively rising, while Hong Kong stocks also showed a clear upward trend.

Recent Focus

Reciprocal tariffs exacerbate market volatility risks; key data is worth monitoring.

After the tariff suspension confusion, President Trump stated that he would not suspend the so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy. After meeting with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House, Trump told the media that he currently has no plans to suspend the tariff policy, as many leaders of economic entities are seeking to negotiate with him.

The March CPI data is about to be released. Although the data has not yet been published, market expectations for an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising. Swap trading indicates a roughly 40% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, well ahead of the Fed's scheduled rate decision on May 7. Meanwhile, investors are selling off risk assets and buying bonds, leading to a sharp drop in yields. On Monday, the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury bond, which is most sensitive to monetary policy, fell by 22 basis points to 3.43%, totaling a decline of about 50 basis points since Trump announced the tariffs.

SEC announces agenda for April 11 crypto trading roundtable, which may promote crypto regulation progress.

According to the SEC's official website, the SEC's Crypto Special Working Group will hold a public roundtable titled "Between Blocks and Dilemmas: Tailored Regulation for Crypto Trading" on April 11 from 1:00 PM to 5:00 PM ET (at its Washington headquarters), which will be live-streamed. The meeting will be hosted by Goodwin Procter partner Nicholas Losurdo, with participants including executives and experts from Uniswap Labs, Coinbase, NYSE, and other institutions. With the recent easing of crypto regulatory policies, the market anticipates that this roundtable may promote the progress of crypto regulation.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.