Trump's Tariff Game: "Promoting Talks through Tariffs," a Power Game Amid Market Volatility

Author: Ac-Core, YBB Capital Researcher

I. Trade War Escalates, 24-Hour Cross-Market Flash Crash Relay

Image source: forbes

1.1 Global Financial Market Crash!

On the morning of April 7, global financial markets crashed amid panic over escalating trade frictions characterized by "reciprocal tariffs," with stocks, crude oil, precious metals, and even cryptocurrencies all plummeting. During the Asian trading session, U.S. stock index futures continued last week's downward trend, with Nasdaq 100 futures plunging 5%, and S&P 500 and Dow futures both dropping over 4%. The European market was similarly gloomy, with German DAX futures falling nearly 5%, and European STOXX 50 and UK FTSE futures both exceeding a 4% decline.

The Asian market opened with a stampede: South Korea's KOSPI 200 futures fell 5% in early trading, triggering a trading halt; the Australian stock index saw its decline expand from 2.75% to 6% within two hours of opening; Singapore's Straits Times Index plummeted 7.29% in a single day, setting a record. The Middle Eastern market experienced a "Black Sunday" in advance, with Saudi Tadawul Index crashing 6.1% in one day, and stock indices in oil-producing countries like Qatar and Kuwait dropping over 5.5%.

The commodity market was filled with despair: WTI crude oil fell below the psychological threshold of $60, hitting a two-year low with a daily drop of 4%; gold unexpectedly fell below the $3010 support level, and silver's weekly decline expanded to 13%; in the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin broke below a key support level, and Ethereum plummeted 10% in a single day, completely shattering the myth of digital assets as a safe haven.

1.2 Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

Short-term Market Shock

Recent policies from the Trump administration have had a significant volatility effect on the cryptocurrency market. In January of this year, when Trump signed an executive order to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and study a national cryptocurrency reserve, the market reacted positively, pushing the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies to $3.65 trillion by the end of the month, achieving a cumulative increase of 9.14%. However, the introduction of tariffs in February quickly reversed the previous market trend. Particularly after the announcement on February 3 of long-term import tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline correlated with the stock market: Bitcoin fell 8% within 24 hours, Ethereum dropped over 10%, leading to $900 million in liquidations across the network and 310,000 forced liquidations of investors.

From a transmission mechanism perspective, tariff policies affect the cryptocurrency market through multiple pathways: first, trade frictions exacerbate global market volatility, strengthening the dollar as a safe-haven asset and prompting capital to flow back to the U.S. market; second, institutional investors may liquidate cryptocurrency assets to offset losses in other portfolios to manage risk; inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs may weaken consumer purchasing power, thereby reducing market risk appetite, especially in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market.

Long-term Potential Opportunities

Despite the significant short-term shocks, tariff policies may create structural opportunities for the cryptocurrency market in the following ways:

• Liquidity Expansion Expectations
  The Trump administration may implement expansionary fiscal policies through tax cuts and infrastructure investments, which will increase market liquidity as measures to offset fiscal deficits or undertake debt monetization. Historical experience shows that during the $3 trillion expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in 2020, Bitcoin's price rose over 300% during the same period, indicating that a new round of liquidity injection may support cryptocurrency assets.

• Strengthened Anti-Inflation Properties
  Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp, pointed out that if the trade war leads to a depreciation of the dollar, Bitcoin may become a hedging tool due to its fixed supply characteristic. Competitive currency devaluation triggered by tariff policies may prompt more investors to use cryptocurrencies as an alternative channel for cross-border capital flows.

II. "Merchant + Dictator = Market Manipulation"

Image source: marketwatch

2.1 Starting from the Tariff War of Trade Deficits

In Trump's merchant mindset, the so-called "trade deficit" is not a complex economic concept, but rather an unequal price relationship between the buyer and supplier in a procurement negotiation. Economist Fu Peng's explanation is insightful: the buyer calls all potential suppliers to the table and says, "We need to renegotiate the terms of cooperation." Doesn't that sound a bit like centralized bidding in the pharmaceutical industry? Indeed, Trump's approach is a typical bidding tactic.

If tariffs are viewed as a form of "price restriction," then the high tariffs set by Trump are essentially a psychological price point predetermined by the buyer in a bidding process—whoever wants to win the bid must compete below this price. This setting may sound crude, even somewhat arbitrary, but it is very common in many actual procurement negotiations, especially in large centralized procurement projects led by the government.

Some may question whether this was a spur-of-the-moment decision made by Trump using an Excel spreadsheet, but that is not the case. His strategy is not complicated; it essentially involves artificially setting a "threshold price" to force suppliers to come to the negotiating table. The most direct effect of this tactic is that those who do not come to negotiate are effectively excluded, because if you do not accept this "maximum bid," you will be taxed under the worst conditions, which is essentially equivalent to automatically forfeiting market access.

At this point, countries wishing to participate in this "bidding" must sit down and negotiate with the U.S.—how to reduce tariffs, how to allocate products, how to change rules. It appears to be a trade confrontation, but it is more like a commercial negotiation driven by rounds of games. For this reason, the report by Citibank's head of Asian trading strategy, Mohamed Apabai, makes it very clear: what Trump is using now is a typical negotiation tactic.

For small and medium-sized suppliers, the space is actually quite limited, as they find it difficult to negotiate with the buyer on their own. Thus, the buyer (the U.S.) uses the concessions of these small suppliers to further pressure larger suppliers. This strategy of first breaking the periphery and then encircling the center is essentially using concessions from the periphery to force core players to compromise.

So, in a sense, Trump's so-called "tariff war" is not entirely about starting a war, but rather about creating a situation where "negotiation is unavoidable." It is about forcing you to negotiate or forcing you out; that is the real game he wants to play.

2.2 "Dictator"

Although the U.S. has a strong constitutional system and democratic tradition, during Trump's presidency, many of his actions and behaviors have been widely criticized as having "dictatorial" tendencies. This assessment is not unfounded, but is based on his repeated assaults on institutional norms, democratic mechanisms, public opinion environments, and power structures. Although Trump did not completely break the institutional framework of the U.S., his actions reflect typical dictatorial characteristics—breaking institutional boundaries, suppressing dissent, and reinforcing personal authority.

Undermining Institutional Checks and Balances, Concentrating Power by Bypassing Congress

During Trump's presidency, he frequently used executive orders to advance policies, including building the U.S.-Mexico border wall, issuing the "Muslim ban," and rolling back environmental regulations. He even declared a "national emergency" to access military funds when Congress refused to allocate funds for the border wall, circumventing the constraints of the legislative body. Such actions undermine the principle of separation of powers enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, leading to an unprecedented expansion of executive power, which is seen as having a clear tendency toward centralization.

Attacking Press Freedom, Creating an "Enemy" Style Public Opinion Environment

Trump often refers to media outlets that criticize him as "fake news," even labeling traditional news organizations like CNN and The New York Times as "enemies of the people." He repeatedly attacks journalists, television hosts, and commentators on Twitter, inciting hostility towards the media among his supporters. In political communication studies, this method of "delegitimizing" the media is one of the common strategies of dictatorial leadership, aimed at weakening public trust in diverse information sources and establishing an "information monopoly."

Interfering with Judicial Independence, Emphasizing "Loyalty over Expertise"

Trump has repeatedly attacked the judicial system in public, especially when courts rule against his policies, even directly naming judges for criticism. For example, he referred to a judge opposing his immigration policy as a "Mexican," implying unfairness in their ruling. Additionally, he often prioritizes loyalty over professional competence in high-level appointments, frequently changing key positions such as Attorney General and FBI Director, severely impacting judicial independence.

Rejecting Election Results, Undermining the Tradition of Peaceful Power Transition

After the 2020 presidential election, Trump adamantly refused to concede defeat, claiming the election was "stolen," and repeatedly demanded states to "recount" or "overturn results." More seriously, his rhetoric ultimately led to the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, where a large number of supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to block the certification of Biden's election. This event has been widely referred to in international discourse as the "dark day for American democracy," and is a clear attempt to interfere with the peaceful transfer of power, exhibiting characteristics of authoritarianism.

Promoting Cult of Personality, Forming a "Leader-Only" Narrative

Trump has implemented a highly personalized style of governance within the party and government, demanding absolute loyalty. He frequently boasts about himself at rallies, portraying himself as "the greatest president in history," and suggesting that without him, the country would decline. This political discourse creates a "messianic" personal myth, undermining the presence of collective governance and institutional norms, and easily sliding into cult of personality and populism.

2.3 Trump's Dual Chess Game: Not a President but a "Market God"

Donald Trump, the billionaire from a real estate empire, surprised many when he successfully became the President of the United States in 2016, as he was seen as a "non-typical political figure" ascending to the world's most powerful position. Looking at his governance style and political behavior, combined with the hypothetical positioning of Trump as a "merchant" and "dictator" discussed above, I personally believe that Trump is not a true "president" in the conventional sense, but rather a "super trader" who uses power, public opinion, and financial markets as tools: a "market god" who turns the White House into a trading room on Wall Street to profit from market volatility. Therefore, from the perspective of a "trader," reinterpreting Trump's unconventional actions seems to make all his non-conventional operations reasonable.

Merchant Nature: Viewing the Presidency as a "Super Trading Platform"

Trump is a typical merchant-type political figure. He has spent decades in business, adept at creating topics, controlling public opinion, and speculating for profit. He does not govern the country according to political logic, but views American and global affairs from a "business perspective." His governance is not aimed at institutional improvement or global leadership, but rather at pursuing "transaction results," emphasizing "America First," which is essentially "profit first."

Moreover, Trump also exhibits strong "dictatorial" characteristics, particularly in his approach to guiding public opinion and concentrating power. He controls the rhythm of information, eagerly releasing market-shaking statements via Twitter, such as "We are about to reach a significant agreement with China" or "The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates," often causing severe fluctuations in financial markets. For an ordinary president, these statements might be diplomatic postures; but for a leader operating with a "market manipulation mindset," these are precise tools for controlling market trends.

Dictatorial Rhetoric: Using Information to Intervene in Market Sentiment

If a core characteristic of a dictator is "control and utilization of information," then Trump is a master of "shaking the market" through information in modern society. He does not need to impose censorship or shut down media; instead, he creates uncertainty and confrontational emotions, becoming the strongest source of information for the market.

In the Twitter era, he almost daily releases "market-impacting statements" like a financial broadcaster:

• "China will sign a huge trade agreement";
• "If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the U.S. will lose competitiveness";
• "Oil prices are too high; it's OPEC's fault";
• "The border wall will be built; the market should feel reassured."

These statements do not constitute formal policy but frequently lead to dramatic fluctuations in the Dow Jones Index, S&P 500, gold, and oil markets. The timing, wording, and even the choice of when to release information all bear the marks of market manipulation.

More notably, he repeatedly "shifts" his stance, praising the progress of U.S.-China negotiations one day and announcing new tariffs the next; stating in the morning that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates and then saying in the afternoon that the dollar is too weak. This kind of back-and-forth is not political flip-flopping but rather precise control over market sentiment, turning volatility into controllable harvesting opportunities.

Family Capital Network: An Arbitrage Channel Built on Power and Information

Trump's business network did not cease after he became president; rather, it gained more "legitimacy" and influence. His family members, such as Kushner and Ivanka, continue to be widely involved in political and business affairs, having direct influence in areas like Middle Eastern policy, technology investment, and real estate. Reports of his family trust fund and close friends' investment groups utilizing policy foresight for financial arbitrage have frequently surfaced:

• Before Trump's large-scale tax cuts were introduced, some funds closely related to him heavily invested in U.S. stocks;
• Whenever Trump hinted at potentially releasing strategic oil reserves or launching military actions, suspicious trading often appeared in the energy market in advance;
• During the trade war with China, the market reacted highly sensitively to Trump's statements about "reaching an agreement," often resulting in short-term spikes.

While it is impossible to directly confirm insider trading, his control over information and concentration of policy decision-making power give the "arbitrage channel" significant practical value. The president is no longer a representative of the institution but a "trader" with unlimited prior information and discourse power.

"Creating Chaos—Guiding Direction—Harvesting Results": A Typical Tactic of Market Manipulators

Traditional presidents seek stability and continuity, while Trump seems to constantly "create chaos." He excels at triggering market panic and then guiding the market back to recovery through "soothing" statements—the entire process resembles a wave operation:

• "Fire at Iran"—market panic—release negotiation signals the next day—market rebounds;
• Announce increased tariffs on China—tech stocks plummet—days later state "China's attitude is very good"—rebound;
• During the pandemic, claim the situation is "under control"—stock market briefly rebounds—subsequent information reversal leads to another decline.

These seemingly random statements are backed by a high degree of coordination between emotional guidance and market rhythm. He understands the public's emotional expectations and reactions, acting like a super market operator, leading the collective psychology of global investors.

Post-Trump Era: Personal Brand Continues to Influence the Market

Even after leaving office, Trump can still influence market rhythms. He announces "possible candidacy again" at the slightest provocation, causing stocks related to energy, military, social media, and conservative technology to react immediately. For example, the Trump Media Group (Truth Social) went public through a shell company, and despite lacking substantial profitability, the stock surged significantly—capital markets treat "Trump" itself as a speculative target, reflecting his brand's financialization.

III. The "Staged" Cryptocurrency Market by the U.S.: A Conspiracy of Capital and Power Manipulation

Image source: Al Jazeera

3.1 Power Reconstruction: What Trump Wants is Not Bitcoin, but Bitcoin "Americanized"

Today's cryptocurrency market is no longer a haven for decentralized ideals but a new type of financial colony operated by U.S. capital and power. Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, Wall Street giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and MicroStrategy have rapidly established BTC spot holdings, locking Bitcoin, which originally belonged to the tech community, into Wall Street's vaults. Financialization and policy orientation have become the dominant logic, with the prices of crypto assets no longer determined by spontaneous market behavior but reliant on the Federal Reserve's interest rate signals, SEC regulatory dynamics, and even a presidential candidate's verbal commitment to "support crypto."

The essence of this "Americanization" is to re-embed decentralized assets into a center—the American financial hegemony system. ETFs have caused the cryptocurrency market to rise and fall in tandem with U.S. stocks, with the candlestick charts reflecting the pulse of U.S. bond market fluctuations and CPI data. Once seen as a symbol of freedom, Bitcoin increasingly resembles an "alternative Nasdaq component stock that reflects the Federal Reserve's intentions with a delay."

3.2 Strategic Value of Bitcoin: A Non-Sovereign Reserve Asset, but a Gray Backup for Dollar Hegemony

The Trump era has laid the groundwork for Bitcoin's national financial positioning. He did not directly declare support like traditional politicians; instead, he allowed for the migration of computing power, relaxed regulatory gray areas, and supported mining infrastructure, incorporating Bitcoin into the U.S. strategic financial resource pool. As expectations for the traditional dollar credit system weaken, Bitcoin is gradually taking on the role of a "non-sovereign reserve asset," being shaped into an alternative safe haven in financial turmoil.

This layout is very American: undeclared warfare, silently assimilating. The U.S. has dominated most of Bitcoin's financial infrastructure (Coinbase, CME, BlackRock ETF) and further mastered on-chain settlement capabilities through stablecoins (USDC) anchored to the dollar. When global turmoil, capital flight, and trust transfer occur, the U.S. has quietly acquired this "dollar alternative in the process of de-dollarization."

Trump may see further: Bitcoin's faith has nothing to do with him, but rather he aims to tame its financial attributes into another "currency sovereignty tool" for the U.S. In scenarios where the dollar is restricted, SWIFT is difficult to use, and fiat currencies are depreciating, Bitcoin becomes a backup plan for maintaining power.

3.3 The Truth of Manipulation? Trump is Not Just a President, but the "Super Dealer" on the Financial Battlefield of Traffic

First, understand a fact: in any financial market, 90% of the time is dominated by fluctuations; only "big volatility can earn big money."

So, summarizing all the viewpoints above, Trump appears to be a president on the surface, but in reality, he is more like a super trader driven by traffic, with all his actions aimed at: creating market volatility and controlling market fluctuations, solely to profit from the volatility.

Trump is a speculator adept at influencing market direction through information, traffic, and influence, profiting from market volatility. On one hand, he supports Bitcoin becoming a "U.S. strategic reserve," while on the other, he introduces the meme token $TRUMP to siphon off market liquidity—this is a market manipulation strategy of "information intervention + liquidity vampirism."

More brutally, the trends in the cryptocurrency market increasingly depend on U.S. political maneuvering: Federal Reserve statements, SEC dynamics, presidential candidates' remarks, congressional hearing sentiments… The decentralized cryptocurrency system, which should be independent, is now deeply intertwined with dollar policies, U.S. stock structures, and the logic of large American capital. The cryptocurrency market has become an "extended battlefield" of the American financial system.

We are witnessing a harsh reality: the market seems free, yet it has long been staged; prices appear volatile, but behind them are those controlling information and traffic setting the traps.