4E Insights: Oscillation and Reconstruction - A Weekly Observation of the Crypto Market Under Macroeconomic Pressure

1. Cryptocurrency Market Review: Fluctuations and Increased Volatility

In the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) continued to maintain a high-level oscillation, but volatility significantly increased. From the peak of approximately $107,747 on June 17, it dropped to $98,200 on June 22, as bears took advantage of the options expiration and concentrated liquidation points, causing a noticeable short-term plunge in price. Although there was a rebound within the support zone, the overall closing still leaned towards the lower end, indicating a short-term weakening of market sentiment.

Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a synchronized pullback, consolidating in the range of $2,200 to $2,500. Dragged down by BTC, mainstream coins like SOL, ADA, and LINK saw increased volatility, with some experiencing over 8% declines at one point. A small amount of "buying the dip" sentiment emerged towards the end of trading, resulting in limited price rebounds, while some altcoins also presented swing trading opportunities amid range-bound fluctuations.

Overall, capital allocation has become more concentrated. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin exchange balances are declining with no signs of continued selling, reflecting the exit of long-term funds. By the expiration date, some retail and short-term speculators chose to exit, while institutions and stable funds continued to observe without taking risks. Although liquidity has not experienced a breakdown, trading frequency has decreased, indicating that the market is in a wait-and-see phase for macro signals and clearer policies.

2. Macroeconomic Policies and Geopolitical Situations: The Rhythm of Impact and Rebound

Geopolitical Risks Resurface

This weekend, Israel's military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities became a global focal point. Bloomberg reported that U.S. relevant departments are preparing for "potential military intervention," but it has not yet clarified whether action will necessarily be taken. Against this backdrop, market risk aversion quickly intensified, with gold and U.S. Treasury yields rising sharply, putting Bitcoin and the overall crypto market under pressure again. This incident revealed that crypto assets still struggle to perform as a safe haven like gold during geopolitical crises, also indicating that their "risk asset" attributes remain dominant.

Federal Reserve Policy Review

In the June meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.50%, in line with market expectations, but lowered the interest rate cut expectations for 2026 in its statement, noting that data verification is still needed. Chairman Powell emphasized in the post-meeting press conference that "we are still in a data-driven phase," which was seen as a signal of a hawkish return. Although there may still be expectations for long-term easing, the timing for rate cuts has clearly been pushed back, and the short-term interest rate adjustment window is no longer clear.

This news has heightened market caution towards crypto assets. Despite a slight easing of inflationary pressures, the ongoing deflationary pressures mean that capital bets on crypto assets still need to be discounted. The intersection of economic data and policy expectations has led to increased short-term volatility in crypto asset prices, with significant structural uncertainty.

3. Structural Drivers in International Finance: Regulatory Compliance and Institutional Inflow Trends

Stablecoin Regulatory Landscape

The U.S. Senate has passed the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, which clearly regulates the issuance and reserve auditing of U.S. dollar stablecoins, now awaiting a vote in the House of Representatives. The bill requires stablecoins to be fully backed by cash, short-term government bonds, and other assets, and mandates transparent public audits. If successfully legislated, it will provide legal operation and credit guarantees for mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT, reducing regulatory interference. This undoubtedly aids institutional investors in entering phased allocations, and crypto scenarios like DeFi will also welcome higher compliance guarantees.

In the European Union, the MiCA regulation continues to advance, with many platforms like Crypto.com and Gemini having obtained relevant operating licenses. Cross-border finance and regulatory coordination are accelerating, laying the groundwork for a consensus-based global regulatory framework. This is a significant long-term benefit for the industry and a key step towards the maturation of the crypto sector.

Institutional Dynamics and Inflow Trends

The U.S. government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve has established a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" program, seen as a signal that the government is incorporating Bitcoin into its treasury assets. Alongside several large asset management firms (like BlackRock) launching crypto ETF tools, traditional capital is gradually infiltrating this field. The recent pullback triggered by the expiration of BTC options has not affected institutional attitudes; some selling pressure may be more of a cleanup action before capital displacement. Currently, a large amount of investment continues to concentrate on mainstream assets with good liquidity and strong compliance, further deepening the industry's maturity.

Global Economic Environment Trends

The situation in the Middle East has continued to push oil prices upward, with Brent crude oil surpassing $70, accumulating nearly an 18% increase. This has led to a resurgence of global inflationary pressures, with financial markets concerned that "stagflation" pressures may reignite. Although the U.S. labor market has stabilized, growth is slowing, and the European economy faces policy and growth dilemmas.

The World Bank has lowered its global economic growth forecast to 2.3%, noting that this cycle may become "one of the weakest growth decades in history." In this macro environment, capital tends to allocate to high-yield assets. Although gold and major commodity resources are the first choices, under gradually clarifying regulations, the supportive compliance background for crypto asset allocations may be reconsidered.

4. Conclusion: Finding Structural Foundations Amidst Fluctuations

In the past week, the fluctuations in the crypto market have conveyed a clear signal: the structural opportunities in crypto assets are gradually taking shape due to clearer regulations and institutional advantages, but macro and geopolitical factors will cause short-term disturbances, leading to increased price volatility and differentiation. The concentration of funds in leading assets further reflects participants' "value preservation" attitudes.

Particularly noteworthy are:

• Short-term volatility created by independent monetary policies and geopolitical events;

• The stablecoin regulatory bill and the implementation of MiCA, reshaping the compliance framework;

• The construction of crypto asset pricing capabilities through institutional and sovereign asset allocations.

4E reminds you that if you are an institution or a medium to long-term investor, the buying phenomenon that appears during this round of option pain points may be an entry window; if you participate in frequent trading, the range fluctuations provide strategic references. However, regardless of the role, choosing to maintain a clear understanding of short-term disturbances in the market and actively observing policy and capital flows will be the most reasonable trading perspective in the future.

About 4E: As the official partner of the Argentine national team, the 4E platform supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, U.S. stocks, indices, and foreign exchange, offering one-stop trading for USDT. Recently, it launched a promotion for new users to receive 88U, providing trading benefits for investors. With 4E, investors can keep up with market dynamics, flexibly adjust strategies, and seize every potential opportunity.