Matrixport Market Observation: Traditional Capital Inflows Strengthen, BTC Outlook Positive in the Medium to Long Term

Last week (April 22 to April 28), BTC strongly decoupled from the U.S. stock market, achieving its largest weekly increase since Trump's victory. The inflow of BTC spot ETFs warmed up, with data showing net inflows of $381 million and $913 million on the 21st and 22nd, respectively, driving BTC prices to continue rising and reaching a recent high of $95,758.04, with a maximum weekly increase of 9.97%. Currently, BTC prices are stabilizing around $94,858. After hitting a low of $1,537.26 at 8:00 on the 22nd, ETH prices rebounded, fluctuating upward to $1,857.47, with a maximum weekly increase of 20.8%. Prices then consolidated, forming strong support around $1,700, and are currently stable around $1,819. (Data source: Binance Spot, April 29, 16:35)

Last week, the three major U.S. stock indices performed differently, with many investors awaiting the earnings reports of major tech stocks this week. As of the close on April 28, the S&P 500 rose for five consecutive trading days, the Nasdaq slightly declined, and the Dow Jones briefly fell over 200 points in the early session but found support by the end. As President Trump's second term approaches the 100-day mark, the index has dropped nearly 8%, marking the worst performance for a president's initial term since Nixon in 1973.

Market Interpretation

Signals of a trend reversal in the crypto market, short-term funding opportunities emerge

• On April 22, Trump publicly stated that tariffs on U.S. imports are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. Following this news, market risk aversion decreased, and volatility declined. CME interest rate futures data indicates that the market expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in June, with three rate cuts anticipated for the year, potentially bringing more liquidity.

• The Trump administration continues to advance crypto policies, signing an order in March 2025 to establish a "strategic BTC reserve" and promoting several states to introduce BTC reserve legislation. Meanwhile, the nomination of the new SEC chairman Paul Atkins may alleviate regulatory pressure on the crypto industry.

BTC has outperformed U.S. stocks since mid-March, demonstrating a certain degree of safe-haven properties. In early April, BTC's RSI and MACD showed a bullish divergence, and sentiment indicators reached extreme fear; the current MACD has broken through the zero line, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish market trends.

Overall, the easing of tariff policies, expectations of interest rate cuts, and the advancement of crypto policies may provide support for the market, with short-term funding potentially reversing.

BTC decouples from U.S. stocks, increasing market recognition of its safe-haven properties

According to a report by CryptoQuant analyst Timo Oinonen, the correlation coefficient between BTC and U.S. stocks continues to weaken. Over the past seven days, BTC has clearly detached from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index, with the correlation between traditional stocks and tech stocks declining. CryptoQuant data shows that the correlation coefficient between BTC and the S&P 500 has dropped from 0.88 at the end of 2024 to 0.77, and the correlation with Nasdaq has also decreased from 0.91 in January 2025 to 0.83.

BTC's safe-haven properties are strengthening, and its status as a mainstream investment asset is gradually being recognized by the market. As the market stabilizes, the short-term bearish sentiment in the U.S. stock market has dissipated, leading to a decline in gold prices and a corresponding rise in BTC prices. This week, BTC's price increase has already surpassed that of gold.

ETH is expected to lead altcoins in a price rebound

Coinglass data shows that on the 29th, the ETH contract market was active, with a total open interest of $20.733 billion and an OI/MC ratio of 10%. On April 22, ETH prices broke through to $1,695, then rose to $1,800, with the contract market rising in sync with the spot market.

Since December 2024, ETH has experienced five months of decline, with the proportion of profitable addresses dropping from 95% to 35%. The MVRV indicator has fallen to 0.8, entering an oversold state, similar to the performance during the 2022 bear market. The cost basis distribution shows a significant long-term holding area around $1,850, which may serve as a support level.

Technically, ETH has rebounded about 30% since November 2024, with the MACD indicator forming a golden cross, and both the RSI and MFI showing oversold conditions, potentially indicating a trend reversal. As the "king of altcoins," ETH's on-chain data, contract market, and technical indicators all suggest the potential for a trend reversal, which may lead to a recovery in the altcoin market in the short term.

More Information

Focus on macro data and tech stock earnings reports, pay attention to market sentiment

This week, macro data and earnings reports from major tech stocks will jointly dominate market sentiment. If signs of economic slowdown and divergence in earnings performance appear, it may increase market volatility.

On the data front, the U.S. non-farm payroll report will be released on Friday, and the latest GDP data will be announced for both the U.S. and Europe, with several inflation indicators also being released in Europe. The Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period ahead of its May 7 interest rate meeting, and the combined data may affect market expectations for rate cuts.

After gold's performance surpassed that of the Mag-7, becoming the best-performing asset recently, the earnings reports of the Mag-7 have become an important indicator for assessing the future potential of major tech stocks. Recently, more than half of the Mag-7 members (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple) will announce their earnings reports. Although market expectations for corporate earnings (EPS) have been significantly revised down, investors remain cautious about economic growth.

Trump dinner announcement triggers a 40% surge in TRUMP token, price rises sharply before retreating

On April 23, Trump's meme coin TRUMP officially announced that it would host a dinner on May 22 at a golf club near Washington, inviting the top 220 investors by token holdings. Following this news, the price of the TRUMP token surged over 40%, skyrocketing from $9.3 to $16. However, after details of the dinner were disclosed, indicating that President Trump might be absent, market sentiment weakened, and the token price retreated, suspected to be a result of the project party raising the price for selling.

The dinner also revealed that the top 25 token holders would have the opportunity for a private reception with Trump and a tour of the White House. The announcement urged investors to increase their token holdings before May 12 to improve their rankings. This news attracted market attention in the short term but also increased volatility, prompting investors to be cautious of related risks.

Stablecoin market expected to grow to $500 billion to $750 billion

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stated that the stablecoin market is expected to grow to between $500 billion and $750 billion in the coming years. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the stablecoin market size reached $218 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%. In 2024, the on-chain trading volume of stablecoins was $5.6 trillion, with monthly trading volume in 2025 expected to exceed $700 billion, surpassing Visa's annual payment scale.

USDT and USDC dominate the market, and with the support of the EU's MiCA regulations and Dubai's DIFC, stablecoins occupy a core position in cross-border payments and transactions. The U.S. Treasury Secretary has proposed reviewing regulatory barriers for blockchain and stablecoins to promote market development. Yield-bearing stablecoins (YBS) are gradually rising, becoming an emerging trend in the market, expected to account for 20-30% of the stablecoin market in a sluggish market. The rapid growth of stablecoins and the improvement of the regulatory environment provide strong support for their integration into the global financial system in the future.

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