Matrixport Market Observation: The Risk Market Has Rebounded Significantly, Can the ETH Uptrend Continue?

Last week (May 6 - May 12), both BTC and ETH surged, with BTC price returning to $100,000 and ETH experiencing a maximum increase of over 45% during the week. Driven by the 10% reciprocal tariff agreement between the US and UK and positive remarks from Trump, BTC price broke through the $100,000 barrier from $95,784.61, followed by a period of consolidation, peaking at $105,819.45 on the 12th. Currently, BTC price stabilizes around $102,498, with a maximum increase of 10.47% during the week.

Fueled by network upgrades and easing economic conditions, ETH skyrocketed by 45.77% last week. On May 8, ETH rebounded from a low of $1,789.12, rising over 40% within 72 hours and breaking through the key resistance level of $2,600. On the 12th, ETH peaked at $2,624, then slightly retreated, with the current ETH price around $2,453 (data source: Binance Spot, May 13, 14:50).

Market Interpretation

Tariff Drama Nears Conclusion, US Reaches Agreements with Multiple Trade Partners

Recently, US tariffs have gradually shifted from a heated state to a peaceful resolution. As the US signed agreements with several trade partners last week, international capital began to flow back into the US market, and risk assets rose accordingly. As of the close of US markets on May 13, the Nasdaq rose by 4.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 3.26%, and the Dow Jones gained 2.81%, with all three major US stock indices closing at high levels.

Tech stocks performed exceptionally well, with Amazon up nearly 8%, Meta rising close to 8%, Tesla increasing by 6.8%, Apple up 6.3%, and Nvidia and AMD both rising over 5%. Utilities and consumer staples sectors retreated.

US and China Reach Geneva Trade Agreement, Crypto Market Welcomes Positive Catalyst

On May 12, the US and China reached a temporary tariff agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, significantly reducing bilateral tariffs over the next three months, with the US rate dropping from 145% to 30% and China's from 125% to 10%, along with the establishment of a continuous consultation mechanism. Following the announcement, market expectations for inflation and dollar appreciation cooled, while expectations for a turning point in dollar liquidity increased, leading to a general strengthening of the crypto market. BTC briefly surged to $105,000, while US Treasury yields rose in tandem, with 2-year and 10-year rates increasing by 12 and 8 basis points, respectively.

According to CoinW data, the global crypto market cap rose to $3.59 trillion last week, a week-on-week increase of 2.5%. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates earlier in Q3 2025, further benefiting crypto assets.

The agreement significantly reduces geopolitical risk premiums, alleviating concerns about supply chain disruptions and clearly directing capital towards risk assets. CoinW data shows that the global crypto market cap rose to $3.59 trillion last week, a week-on-week increase of 2.5%. The market expects the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates earlier in Q3 2025, further benefiting crypto assets. Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainty remains a major risk point. With rising speculative enthusiasm and concentrated liquidity, investors should be cautious of short-term pullback risks.

ETH Short-Term Surges 40%, Enters Technically Overbought Zone

After a previous decline, ETH experienced a strong upward trend last week, with a short-term increase exceeding 45%, rising from $1,730 to over $2,600. It not only broke through the previous consolidation range but also topped traditional media search rankings, attracting attention to the ETH ecosystem.

This round of ETH's rise has two main drivers. First, continuous capital inflows, long positions being added, and short squeezes. On-chain data shows sustained capital inflows, with large buy orders concentrated in mainstream exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. At the same time, in the futures market, long positions have increased, with CME data showing institutional buying positions growing by over 15% within a week.

On the other hand, the active Layer 2 ecosystem, rising ETH staking yields, and the upcoming ETH upgrade (Pectra) have become major positives, enhancing market expectations for ETH's long-term value. Investors should be cautious of market overheating risks in the short term, as ETH has entered a technically overbought zone, and some profit-taking has begun.

BTC Spot ETF Sees Inflows for Three Consecutive Weeks, Trump's Policy Expectations Boost Market Optimism

Last week, BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $920 million, marking three consecutive weeks of net inflows, with the previous two weeks at $3.03 billion and $1.81 billion, respectively. The continuous inflow of funds indicates that the market remains optimistic about BTC's value and future trends.

This round of increases is closely related to Trump's policies. On May 8, Trump announced on social media that a tariff agreement had been reached with major countries and stated, "It's a good time to buy crypto assets." Additionally, the nomination of pro-crypto individuals as SEC chair and the advancement of stablecoin legislation further reinforced market expectations for a shift in US policy.

More Information

US April CPI Data Will Reveal Inflation Slowdown Expectations, Potentially Driving BTC to New Highs

The US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8 PM Beijing time on Tuesday, with the market generally expecting confirmation of a trend towards slowing inflation, which may increase expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and drive BTC prices to historical highs, while also accelerating the rise of altcoin markets.

CPI data plays a crucial guiding role in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rising expectations for interest rate cuts will be a direct catalyst for high-risk assets like BTC. However, the trend of core CPI remains a key variable; if rents or service prices rise, it may lead to core CPI exceeding expectations, thereby weakening rate cut expectations.

South Korea's Democratic Party Establishes Digital Asset Committee Ahead of Presidential Election, Policy Support to Drive Industry Development

On May 13, South Korea's Democratic Party announced that its digital asset committee under the presidential election preparation committee will hold its first meeting. The committee has two subgroups, one focusing on industry growth and innovation, and the other on supporting policy and legal frameworks. Market expectations for this new policy are positive, anticipating that it will attract more capital into the digital asset industry.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.