Huobi Growth Academy | Macro Research Report on the Crypto Market: Latest Outlook for the Crypto Market Under the Expectation of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

I. Overview of the Macroeconomic Background

The current global macro environment is at a delicate and critical turning point. As U.S. economic data continues to weaken, the market has almost reached a consensus that the Federal Reserve will initiate this round of interest rate cuts on September 17. Data from the CME FedWatch tool and the decentralized prediction market Polymarket show that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at this meeting has surged to the range of 88% to 99%, making it almost a "done deal." On the evening of September 10, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. August PPI year-on-year rate was 2.6%, below the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.30%, and significantly lower than July's 3.1% year-on-year increase. After the unexpected low increase in August PPI alleviated market concerns about inflation pressures hindering monetary easing policies, traders bet on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve might initiate a series of rate cuts that could continue until the end of the year. Based on the pricing of futures contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate, the market expects the Fed to first cut rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, followed by further cuts of the same magnitude within the year. Meanwhile, some Wall Street institutions and international investment banks, such as Bank of America and Standard Chartered, even speculate that there may be room for a second rate cut within the year. Although a one-time aggressive move of 50 basis points is still viewed as a low-probability event by the market, this possibility is no longer completely ignored against the backdrop of an unexpectedly rapid cooling labor market. The direct trigger for this shift in policy expectations is the significant deterioration of the U.S. job market in recent times. The August non-farm payroll data showed only an increase of 22,000 jobs, far below the market's previous expectation of 160,000 to 180,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, reaching a new high since 2021. More shockingly, after the U.S. Labor Department made benchmark revisions to employment data from the past year, it lowered the figures by over 900,000 jobs in one go. This indicates that the narrative of employment stability relied upon by the market in recent months has been severely overestimated, and the true state of the labor market is more fragile than it appears. Historically, such significant data revisions typically occur only at the onset of an economic recession or after major shocks, thus this adjustment has rapidly intensified the market's expectations for the Fed to accelerate its shift towards easing.

However, the slowdown in employment has not led to a simultaneous rapid decline in inflation, instead creating a complex situation of "slowing growth + sticky inflation." The latest data shows that the U.S. CPI remains around 2.9%, while core PCE fluctuates between 2.9% and 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. This inflation stickiness means that policymakers still face pressure when loosening monetary policy, needing to provide a buffer for cooling employment without overly stimulating prices to rise again. This dilemma has led to a significant divergence in market expectations regarding the Fed's future policy path: dovish individuals emphasize that the deterioration of the labor market has posed systemic risks and that rate cuts should be made more quickly and aggressively; while the hawkish camp believes that the current price levels cannot be ignored and that an early shift could undermine long-term inflation anchoring. Every action taken by the Fed will be magnified and interpreted in the financial markets. In this context, the price signals in the financial markets also reflect rapid changes in expectations. The U.S. dollar index continues to be under pressure and has fallen to a near one-year low, indicating that investors are reassessing the attractiveness of U.S. monetary assets. In contrast, safe-haven assets and liquidity-sensitive assets have performed strongly. Gold has been climbing since summer, recently breaking through the $3,600 per ounce mark, continuously setting new historical highs, becoming the most direct beneficiary under expectations of liquidity easing. In the bond market, long-term rates have significantly retreated after experiencing high volatility at the beginning of the year, and the yield curve remains deeply inverted, reinforcing market concerns about future economic recession risks. Meanwhile, the stock market has shown relative divergence, with technology and growth sectors maintaining resilience due to expectations of declining rates, while traditional cyclical sectors have performed poorly under fundamental pressures.

This macro landscape is interpreted not only as a turning point in U.S. domestic monetary policy but also as the beginning of a new round of global liquidity cycles for the global capital markets. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and central banks in emerging markets are all paying attention to the Fed's movements, with some markets even releasing easing signals in advance, attempting to seize the opportunity for global capital redistribution. As the dollar weakens, some emerging market currencies have gained a certain breathing space, and commodity prices have remained strong under the support of liquidity expectations. This spillover effect means that the September FOMC meeting is not only an event for the U.S. financial market but also a key turning point in the pricing framework of global risk assets. For the cryptocurrency market, this macro background is particularly important. Over the past decade, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have gradually shifted from being marginal assets to a part of mainstream investment portfolios, with their price fluctuations increasingly correlated with the macro liquidity environment. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often reacts in advance before monetary policy easing, exhibiting characteristics of "expectation-driven increases"; however, after the policy is actually implemented, the market may sometimes experience a "sell the fact" short-term pullback due to deteriorating economic realities. Now, in the complex landscape of rapidly weakening employment, persistent inflation stickiness, a continuously weakening dollar, and gold repeatedly hitting new highs, Bitcoin's pricing logic is at a critical juncture of the interplay between policy expectations and economic realities. Whether traders, institutional investors, or retail participants, all are closely watching the Fed meeting on September 17, which may become a decisive turning point for the cryptocurrency market's trajectory in the coming months or even the entire year.

II. Current Overview of the Cryptocurrency Market

Recently, Bitcoin's market price has stabilized around $113,000, with a weekly increase of about 2.4%, remaining in a relatively stable oscillation range. It is worth noting that the current level of volatility has dropped to a low point over the past few months, indicating that the market has entered a phase of waiting and accumulating momentum. Several analysts point out that the key technical range in the short term is between $110,700 and $114,000: if the price can effectively break through $114,000 and stabilize, it is expected to open up a new round of upward space, and the market may shift to betting on "liquidity returning"; however, if it falls below $110,700, then $107,000 becomes the primary support, and if this level is lost, it could trigger a deeper pullback to around $100,000. This pattern of having resistance above and support below reflects investors' cautious attitude towards the upcoming Fed policy window, as the market temporarily chooses to control positions before key news lands, reducing short-term volatility. Compared to Bitcoin's oscillation and consolidation, Ethereum has shown slightly weaker performance recently, accompanied by continuous net outflows from ETFs, indicating a contraction in liquidity. Some market participants believe that Ethereum's current ecological narrative is relatively weak, with Layer 2 scaling and re-staking sectors entering a cooling period after the frenzy of the first half of the year, and institutional funds lack the motivation for incremental allocation in the short term. However, the on-chain activity of ETH remains resilient, with DeFi utilization rates and staking scales still at high levels, which somewhat buffers the negative impact of capital outflows. In contrast, assets like XRP and Solana have seen phase rebounds due to rate cut expectations, especially XRP, which rose about 4% in a single day after ETF-related products gained market attention, indicating that some investors have shifted their risk appetite to second-tier mainstream coins during Bitcoin's consolidation. Solana continues to rely on ecological innovation and institutional interest, particularly with its digital asset treasury (DAT) concept gaining Nasdaq approval, making it a pioneering case for on-chain capital marketization, which provides independent catalysts for SOL. ETF fund flows are one of the core structural factors in the current market. Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs have shown a net outflow trend in recent weeks, reflecting a short-term wait-and-see attitude of institutional funds, but some new products and potential approvals remain the focus of the market. For example, the XRP ETF and the anticipated approval of a new batch of Bitcoin ETFs are still seen as key catalysts that could ignite a new round of capital inflows. Some research institutions predict that if the Fed cuts rates by 75 to 100 basis points cumulatively within 2025, it could release over $6 billion in incremental funds into cryptocurrency ETF products, becoming a potential structural buyer. This logic is similar to that of 2024, when the inflow of ETFs and corporate buying demand combined to drive Bitcoin's strength against the trend after the rate cuts were implemented. The difference is that the pace of ETF inflows in 2025 has clearly slowed, and the market is waiting for new capital triggers.

In addition to traditional Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ETF logic, emerging narratives are also shaping the market structure. First is the rapid rise of the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT), which combines equity financing of listed companies with on-chain reserves. DAT has extended from Bitcoin and Ethereum cases to the Solana ecosystem. Recently, SOL Strategies was approved for listing on Nasdaq, indicating that the combination of traditional capital markets and cryptocurrency asset reserve mechanisms is accelerating. DAT often forms a positive feedback loop through asset appreciation and capital premium in bull markets, while in bear markets, risks are amplified due to redemptions and sell-offs, making its pro-cyclical characteristics a highly watched innovative product in the market. Some analysts refer to DAT as the "next ETF," predicting that it may become a systematic segment of the capital market in the coming years. Meanwhile, meme coins and high-risk altcoin contracts continue to maintain their heat, serving as a barometer for retail sentiment. In the absence of trending movements in mainstream coins, a large amount of capital has flowed into short-term volatile meme projects, such as Dogecoin, Bonk, and PEPE, which remain highly active on social media and in the contract market. The cyclical rise of the meme sector usually indicates a rebound in market risk appetite, but it is often accompanied by high liquidation risks and short-term volatility. This existence of high-risk appetite sharply contrasts with the stable allocation of mainstream institutional investors, showing that the internal structure of the cryptocurrency market remains highly differentiated.

In summary, the cryptocurrency market is currently at a complex equilibrium point: Bitcoin is oscillating in a key range, waiting for policy signals to determine direction; Ethereum is under short-term liquidity pressure, but its long-term ecology remains resilient; second-tier mainstream coins and emerging narratives provide localized highlights but struggle to independently drive the overall market; ETF flows and the expansion of stablecoins are the underlying logic supporting market resilience. Coupled with the emerging DAT model and the high-risk games in the meme market, they collectively form the multi-layered landscape of the current market. At this critical moment of impending macro policy shifts, market sentiment is caught between caution and exploration, and this waiting under low volatility may nurture the next stage of significant movements.

III. Historical Review and Current Analysis of U.S. Rate Cuts

Looking back at the interactions between "rate cuts and the cryptocurrency market" over the past three rounds, it is clear that the same macro signals can present entirely different price paths under different fundamentals and capital structures. The year 2019 is a typical case of "expectations leading, realization pulling back": before the fundamentals had deteriorated enough to trigger easing, Bitcoin had already begun to reflect a recovery in risk appetite and a revaluation. At that time, the Fed made three small rate cuts in July, September, and October, and the marginal easing of the monetary environment and the delayed bets on a "soft landing" caused BTC to rebound throughout the first half of the year, peaking above $13,000 in June; however, after the policy was actually implemented, the realities of economic downturn and a decline in global risk appetite began to dominate asset pricing, leading to a high-level retreat for Bitcoin throughout the year, falling back to around $7,000 by year-end, as the market ultimately corrected its previous optimistic expectations for liquidity and growth through a "realization and revaluation" process. Thus, it can be seen that the rate cuts themselves did not suppress prices in 2019, but rather the narrative of "rate cuts = passive confirmation of growth downturn" prevailed, leading to the sequence of rising first and falling later.

The year 2020 was a completely different "anomalous sample." The liquidity shock triggered by the pandemic led the Fed to make two emergency rate cuts in March (50bp on March 3 and 100bp to zero on March 15), along with a combination of unlimited QE and coordinated central bank swap lines to stabilize systemic risks. In the aftermath of the most severe shock on "Black Thursday" (March 12), Bitcoin and risk assets were passively deleveraged and saw significant daily declines, only to quickly rebound on the "policy floor" of dual fiscal and monetary stimulus. Since the trigger for this round was an exogenous public health event and a liquidity crisis, rather than a typical mild slowdown at the tail end of a business cycle, it does not have high-frequency comparability to 2025: the "initial crash followed by a rebound" in 2020 more reflected the technical contraction of dollar scarcity and margin chains, rather than a linear response to the rate cuts themselves.

Entering 2024, the historical path is rewritten again. On the macro level, the Fed will initiate this round of easing in September and directly choose a 50bp "starting move," with the dot plot still pointing to further easing within the year; on the political level, the U.S. election has pushed "cryptocurrency/digital asset regulation and national strategy" to the center of the agenda; on the market level, the passive and active capital demand accumulated after the regulatory landing of spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record net inflows after the election results were clear. The combination of these three factors forms a strong counterbalance to the "sell the fact" narrative after the rate cuts: prices not only did not follow the "realization pullback" of 2019 but instead strengthened in oscillation under the triple support of policy anchoring, a friendly policy narrative, and tool-based buying (ETFs), gradually completing a three-stage evolution from "narrative-driven to capital acceptance to price confirmation." In other words, the experience of 2024 indicates that when structural incremental capital (ETFs) and strong narratives (policy-friendly/political cycles) coexist, the signaling effect of rate cuts will be significantly amplified and sustained, weakening the traditional concern pathway of "rate cuts = growth downturn."

Based on the above three historical segments, September 2025 appears more as a "trigger point under conditional constraints" rather than a direct catalyst in a single direction. First, in terms of rhythm, Bitcoin has entered a long period of consolidation after retreating from mid-year highs, with implied volatility declining, and the futures position structure neutralizing, while net inflows on the ETF side have significantly slowed, with some months even approaching record net outflow levels—this means that the background of "triple resonance of policy, narrative, and passive capital" seen in 2024 has not yet reappeared. Second, in terms of structure, the capital flows of Ethereum ETFs and some mainstream chains have shown divergence, indicating that allocation desks are reassessing the trade-off between "Beta vs. structural opportunities." Third, from the macro anchor perspective, the market has a strong consensus on a 25bp rate cut in September, with marginal variables now focusing on "forward guidance and subsequent rhythm after the landing," which is more likely to change the paths of duration, real interest rates, and liquidity expectations than the question of "whether to cut rates" itself. These three points collectively determine that the September meeting is more likely to be a "calibration point for positions and sentiment," with its price impact depending on the path taken.

Accordingly, we divide the potential evolution of September 2025 into two main lines. If the price rises spontaneously before the meeting, momentum indicators strengthen, and it approaches the upper key range, the historical pattern of "expectation trading followed by realization" is likely to reoccur: after the rate cut lands, short-term bulls may take profits, and CTA/quantitative positions may reverse momentum, triggering a rapid pullback of 3% to 8%, followed by a second directional determination driven by more medium-term liquidity expectations and marginal capital. The core of this branch lies in "price leading, capital following," allowing "easing" to turn from a positive signal to a profit-taking signal at the moment of landing. Conversely, if the price remains flat or gently retreats before the meeting, leveraged and speculative net longs may be passively reduced, leading the market into a state of "low positions, low volatility, and low expectations." In this case, a 25bp rate cut and dovish forward guidance may become a "stabilizer" or even a "source of surprises," triggering an unexpected wave of rebound: the chain of narrowing ETF net outflows, stabilizing net inflows of stablecoins, warming derivatives basis, and restoring spot premiums will gradually complete, with prices building a more solid mid-term platform through "bottoming out and lifting up."

Therefore, under the three-step method of "historical review, current depiction, and scenario simulation," we draw three conclusions for the execution layer: first, grasp "path dependence" rather than "the event itself." The pre-meeting rise or flatness determines how the same news translates into two entirely different price reactions; second, tracking the marginal turning points of "quantitative gates" is more important than judging "dove/hawk": ETF subscriptions and company-side purchases—re-financing itself is an observable capital variable, and their explanatory power for trends often exceeds macro perspectives; third, respect "term layering," dividing trading into "tactical trades during policy week volatility" and "strategic layouts for Q4 liquidity trends" to run in parallel: the former relies on positions and risk control, while the latter depends on forward-looking judgments of capital and policy rhythms. History does not simply repeat itself, but it does rhyme; the "rise followed by a fall" in 2019, the "crash followed by a V" in 2020, and the "continuation of strength after rate cuts" in 2024 collectively form the context of the "conditional trigger" for September 2025—the key lies not in "the hammer falling," but in what positions and capital gates are pressed at both ends of the cutting board when the hammer falls.

In the current market, where there is a high consensus expectation for the Fed's rate cut in September, the potential paths for the cryptocurrency market can be divided into three scenarios: "positive, negative, and uncertain." First, from the positive path perspective, the market has effectively priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, meaning that the landing of the policy itself may not become a decisive catalyst. However, if accompanied by a series of marginal variables turning positive, such as the resumption of net inflows into ETFs, some institutions choosing to increase positions after price corrections, or new corporate buying demand emerging, then mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to welcome a second upward trend. Research institution AInvest points out that a declining interest rate curve means a decrease in risk-free return expectations, supporting valuations for risk assets, especially Bitcoin, which is dominated by the "long-term holding" logic. Under this assumption, Bitcoin is expected to re-accumulate capital to drive a continuation of the "policy floor + structural capital resonance" pattern similar to 2024. CryptoSlate's calculations suggest that if the Fed cumulatively cuts rates by 75 to 100 basis points within 2025, it could release over $6 billion in ETF incremental demand flowing into the Bitcoin market. Some well-known analysts also hold an optimistic view; for example, Tom Lee from Fundstrat stated that if rate cuts and strong ETF inflows overlap, Bitcoin's target range could challenge $200,000 by year-end, while Ethereum could benefit from on-chain narratives and liquidity resonance to reach $7,000. Although such predictions may seem aggressive, they highlight the potential amplifying effect of policy and capital resonance on prices, especially against the backdrop of extremely low market volatility and light positions; once new capital flows in, its price elasticity will be significantly magnified.

In summary, the impact of the September 2025 rate cut on the cryptocurrency market is not one-directional but depends on the interaction of price paths, capital flows, and macro variables. If the market maintains stability before the meeting and ETF net inflows recover, an unexpected rebound is likely, potentially pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum to set new phase highs; if there is a significant rise before the meeting, the risk of "selling the fact" becomes significant, and short-term volatility may be concentrated. In the medium to long term, the true determinants of market heights will still be the continuous absorption capacity of ETFs, the warming of corporate buying demand, and whether the macro environment allows for sustained liquidity easing. Under these conditional constraints, investors must see the potential for upward movement while being wary of downward risks, strategically balancing between "tactical games during policy week" and "strategic layouts for Q4 liquidity trends."

IV. Opportunities and Challenges Under Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond, the trajectory of the cryptocurrency market will depend on three major factors: the macro liquidity environment, structural capital forces, and the innovative narratives within the industry. After the Fed's rate cut in September, the market's attention will gradually shift to the continuity of future policy paths and whether capital will re-enter risk assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum serving as pricing anchors playing a decisive role. Around this core, the market faces both opportunities and challenges. From the perspective of opportunities, the first is the return of macro liquidity and asset allocation demand. As the U.S. economy enters a phase of slowing growth, the bond yield curve gradually declines, and investors' expectations for returns on risk-free assets decrease, the risk premiums of major asset classes are re-elevated, providing Bitcoin as a "store of value" and "liquidity-sensitive asset" with room for valuation expansion. If the Fed further cuts rates by the end of the year or even in early 2026, the global demand for capital reallocation may lead to more institutional funds entering the cryptocurrency market. Some investment banks and research institutions predict that under a 75 to 100 basis point easing path, the annual incremental inflow into Bitcoin ETFs could reach $60 to $80 billion, and this capital will form a solid long-term buying base. For Ethereum, its role as the foundation of cryptocurrency finance is clearer; if the regulatory environment continues to open up for spot ETH ETFs, capital is likely to push its price beyond a new valuation range.

The second opportunity lies in the continuation of corporate buying demand and balance sheet strategies. Since 2020, cases like MicroStrategy and Tesla have validated the feasibility of "corporate treasury allocation of cryptocurrency," and after 2024, this model has been further institutionalized. With the enrichment of corporate financing tools, such as convertible bonds and ATM financing mechanisms, the logic of companies directly allocating BTC after raising funds in the capital market has been proven feasible. If macro rates decline in 2025, leading to lower corporate financing costs, it may instead incentivize a new round of "financing—buying—re-pricing of stock prices" flywheel cycle. This structural buying has become a new pillar of the cryptocurrency market in recent years, and whether it can continue will determine the stability of BTC's price bottom.

The third opportunity is the intersection of internal industry innovation and capital markets. The Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) model is gradually taking shape between 2024 and 2025, essentially combining cryptocurrency asset reserves with traditional capital market financing tools, forming a "third type of institutional buying" beyond ETFs and corporate buying. The approval of SOL Strategies for listing on Nasdaq marks a breakthrough in the integration of traditional capital markets and on-chain assets. Once the scale of DAT products expands, they will introduce external capital for specific chains and ecosystems, providing new Alpha opportunities beyond Beta for the market. Also noteworthy is the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem; Tether, USDC, and even regional stablecoin projects are becoming "shadow dollars" by holding government bonds and cash management tools, and their large-scale expansion provides additional liquidity buffers for the cryptocurrency market.

At the same time, challenges cannot be ignored. The biggest challenge comes from the cyclical risk of "selling the fact." Even if the September rate cut triggers a short-term rebound, the reality the market must face is that easing often means weak growth and declining risk appetite. If the U.S. job market continues to deteriorate and corporate earnings outlooks are revised down, the sustainability of ETF and institutional buying may be hindered, and cryptocurrency assets may still experience a "high-level retreat" after a short-term rise, similar to 2019. This requires investors to maintain flexibility in positions and liquidity even if they are bullish in the fourth quarter, avoiding one-sided bets. The second challenge lies in the uncertainty of inflation and the dollar's path. If CPI rebounds in the coming months and core PCE remains around 3% for an extended period, the Fed may have to slow down the pace of rate cuts. If the dollar stabilizes or even rebounds during this period, the logic of Bitcoin as a "hedge against dollar depreciation" will be weakened. Additionally, global macro risks (such as geopolitical tensions and energy price fluctuations) may also lead to unexpected inflation rebounds, further limiting the space for liquidity easing. This misalignment between macro and market could become a potential source of volatility in the fourth quarter. The third challenge is the uncertainty of regulatory and policy risks. The progress of the U.S. election and candidates' attitudes towards the cryptocurrency industry will directly impact regulatory stances. If there are delays in regulatory approvals, new ETF products are shelved, or the cryptocurrency industry faces new policy constraints, market sentiment will quickly turn cautious. Furthermore, regulatory dynamics in European and Asian markets are also important; the policy direction of Singapore, Hong Kong, and the EU regarding cryptocurrency asset custody, trading, and compliance may influence regional capital flows. If the regulatory environment tightens, the willingness of institutional capital to flow in will be limited, and market resilience will decline.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market after September 2025 stands at a complex crossroads. On one hand, liquidity easing, corporate buying, and new capital market products provide long-term structural opportunities for the market; on the other hand, economic realities, inflation, and regulatory uncertainties pose phase challenges. For investors, the best strategy in the next stage is not to bet on a single path but to maintain a dynamic balance between opportunities and challenges: leveraging macro easing and structural capital opportunities for medium to long-term layouts, while also managing short-term risks through risk hedging and position management. In other words, the market in the fourth quarter of 2025 is not simply a bull or bear market, but a complex landscape of "coexisting opportunities and risks, intertwined volatility and trends." Only by maintaining flexibility and discipline can one capture true excess returns during this phase.

V. Conclusion

Reflecting on the three rate cut cycles in 2019, 2020, and 2024, Bitcoin has exhibited completely different price trajectories under varying macro environments and capital structures. This research report presents three core conclusions. First, the Fed's rate cuts have almost been fully priced in by the market; the actual landing of 25bp will not change the trend. What truly determines direction is the price path before the meeting and the marginal flow of capital after the rate cut. If Bitcoin remains flat or gently retreats before the meeting, releasing market position pressure, then the rate cut may become a stabilizer, even triggering an unexpected rebound; if the price has already risen significantly before the meeting, the probability of "selling the fact" increases significantly, and prices may face a rapid pullback in the short term. Second, ETF and corporate buying demand are quantitative gates for whether the mid-term market can continue. If ETF net inflows resume positive growth and the corporate refinancing and buying flywheel restarts, then even if there is volatility on the day of the meeting, the fourth quarter may still form a path of "bottoming out, lifting up, and breaking through." Third, macro and policy uncertainties still pose potential risks.

In summary, the Fed's rate cut in September 2025 is not a "single switch for bull or bear markets," but a trigger point for the market under complex conditions. For investors, the key lies in dynamically adjusting their cognitive framework: they should neither view rate cuts as automatic bullish signals nor overly fear the risks of "selling the fact," but rather maintain a balance between opportunities and challenges, leveraging the resonance of macro policies and structural capital for medium to long-term layouts, while managing short-term risks through flexible positions and hedging tools. Only in this way can one both safeguard the bottom line and seize potential excess returns during the volatility cycle of the fourth quarter of 2025.